September 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

Not going to get missed this time!

[Andie]

Our forecast pretty much says it all. 
Fall arrives.  We’ll have hot days ahead but this is a signal - It’s here. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

This is getting  ridiculous.  Another total bust by models 1 to 5 days out.  Rain chances for 5 days. I got .03 in 3 minutes this evening. Thats all 5 days of rain chances.  Driest may I ever saw.  Steady deficits since March and now this.  Is this Iowa? No its a hell hole.  Years of deficits.  Nothing is normal. Wetter winters than growing  seasons.  Oh but no darn lack of humidity 80 dewpoints!!  Never seen a humid air mass push out with zero precip like this place. Why no lift! Why?  Strips and stripes of poultry rains.  Last aug i had a 15 inch deficit  for 2022. What is it now? Another 15 inch deficit!  Just horrible.  Im starting  whole different  business. Done with this desert.

[Tom]

I was really hoping for a dry week but the pattern just keeps on bringing more moisture into the area.  Wish I can share some of this rain, however, if we are to believe the 0z Euro,...could our E IA peeps get in on the action?

 

[Tom]

@Clinton how did you fair?  Looks like @OKwx2k4 got pounded last night...

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 75/54 there was no rain fall and there were no HDD’s and no CDD’s so a true “Don’t have to” day. The sun was out 77% of the time the highest wind speed was 24 MPH out of the SE. For today the average H/L is 71/50 the record high of 94 was set in 2017 and the record low of 29 was set in 1950 and 1976. The record rain fall amount of 1.39” fell in 1977. Last year the H/L was 61/51 and there was 0.03” of rain fall.

The week ahead looks to be generally mid for late September with highs in 70’s and lows in the 50’s there is a chance of showers mid week and then a general warm up to end the month. At the current time I have a temperature of 51 with clear skies.

[Clinton]

42 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Clinton how did you fair?  Looks like @OKwx2k4 got pounded last night...

I got .45 inches yesterday which brought my weekend total to 1.3 inches.  30 miles to my west 7.1 inches fell and that's been the story all summer.

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I got .45 inches yesterday which brought my weekend total to 1.3 inches.  30 miles to my west 7.1 inches fell and that's been the story all summer.

Hey, it's better than nothing I guess...as we get into OCT, the SW Flow pattern should provide better opportunities.  Did the rains fill up the rivers and ponds?

[Hawkeye]

36 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I got .45 inches yesterday which brought my weekend total to 1.3 inches.  30 miles to my west 7.1 inches fell and that's been the story all summer.

It appeared you got clobbered by last evening's strong/severe line.  I thought you must have received 1+" from that.

[Hawkeye]

For my area, this system is an epic bust.  There was nothing in Iowa last night.  Even central Iowa busted bad.  Dry air swept in from the east overnight and killed any chance for us this morning.  The 0.23" I got Friday is still my total.  Cedar Rapids has officially received zero rain this weekend.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Hey, it's better than nothing I guess...as we get into OCT, the SW Flow pattern should provide better opportunities.  Did the rains fill up the rivers and ponds?

Oh no.  Not even close, wasn't enough to even make water run in the creeks. Most farm ponds in my area are completely dry or 6+ ft low.  Our cows are drinking well water. We are fortunate enough to have 480ft deep well that can handle 120 head of cattle.

[Clinton]

55 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

For my area, this system is an epic bust.  There was nothing in Iowa last night.  Even central Iowa busted bad.  Dry air swept in from the east overnight and killed any chance for us this morning.  The 0.23" I got Friday is still my total.  Cedar Rapids has officially received zero rain this weekend.

It literally weakened at my door step.  I talked to a friend who lives 3 miles to my west and he got 2.7 inches in 40 minutes.  It's almost comical at this point.

[chescowxman]

As of 10am we have received exactly 1" of rain so far here in East Nantmeal with 0.30" since midnight. More periods of rain will continue today into tonight much of this due to some local enhancement of the rain due to a modest upslope flow from the east. The weather should slowly improve by tomorrow but smaller chances of rain can continue till Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to run well below normal with highs in the low 60's before warming to closer to normal by the end of the work week.

Records for today: High 93 (1970) / 32 (1963) / Rain 2.79" (1912)

[Hawkeye]

All the morning models have shifted the Monday night/Tuesday rain northeast, so it's looking like a total bust here.  Of course, then we go right back into a bone dry pattern again.  It's a broken record in 2023... worst wet season ever.

[Hoosier]

26 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

All the morning models have shifted the Monday night/Tuesday rain northeast, so it's looking like a total bust here.  Of course, then we go right back into a bone dry pattern again.  It's a broken record in 2023... worst wet season ever.

Better hope this thing can reverse in the next couple months of fall.  If you go into winter still in drought, I doubt you'll exit winter without a drought.  Even if it's a normal-ish winter in terms of precip, that won't be enough.

[hawkstwelve]

Yesterday ended up being a total bust. Supposed to get 1-2 inches and ended up with 0.07. Complete model failure on this one.

 

[chescowxman]

Another 0.75" of rain has fallen since this morning now up to 1.05" for the day and a storm total of 1.75" of rain

[Andie]

70% chance for rain and thunderstorms, some severe with hail and high winds. Low: 73.  
I think they may raise that % chance. 
100* days with a cold front down here can trigger some wild storms. 

[jaster220]

Late summer life in The Mitt (Gun Lake where the Gun River begins)

 

 

[Iceresistance]

7 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton how did you fair?  Looks like @OKwx2k4 got pounded last night...

The storms barely dodged me

[james1976]

We bought a brand new 2023 Corolla yesterday and ended up taking it on a last minute trip to Iowa and back. Had to keep an eye on the radar to make sure we didn't run into any hail. Driving down 35 was beautiful with the trees showing a lot of color. Definitely early this year due to the dry conditions. We made it back to the MN home at about 9 last night. We dodged any severe weather. Ended up getting a good soaking rain last night. Checked the weather station this morning and we've received 2.24". Looks like we have some wrap around opportunities later on so I'm hoping we tack on some more.

[Andie]

Totally missed out on any rain. Small area of rain anyway east of me.   
I think the Mets got ahead of themselves,  
so it’s 96 at my location.  Low tonight 74.  
The coming week in the mid 90’s.  
Following week mid 80’s.  At least it’s the right direction. 

. No sooner than I posted this than a tiny pop up came skipping over me.  Just enough to get wet. 

[Andie]

Currently 76.  Storms have pushed east but left us with an interesting sunset over the lake. 

[Tom]

Good Monday all!  It's another beautiful morning with a good SE breeze and showers/storms are lighting up the radar just to me W and SW.  Hope this miss me bc I need to cut the grass this morning.  It's currently 66F/58F and heading into the mid 70's. 

Anyhow, this slow mover is finally going to make its way through the rest of the MW/GL's today through Thu.  This system sure has that "clipper" flavor we see in the Winter....

 

[westMJim]

Yesterday was yet another great late September day with 72% of possible sunshine. There was no rain fall. The official H/L was 75/50 there were 2 HDD’s The highest wind speed was 18MPH out of the E. For today the average H/L is now down to 70/50. The record high of 91 was set in 2017 and the record low of 29 was set in 1947. The record rain fall amount of 3.52” fell in 1961. Last year the H/L was 63/51 and there was 0.44” of rain fall.

The next week looks to have a chance of showers and possible a rumble of thunder highs will be near average but then warm up over the weekend. Lows will be above average in the mid to upper 50’s.

[westMJim]

24 minutes ago, Tom said:

It's currently 66F/58F and heading into the mid 70's. 

It is cooler here in Grand Rapids at the current time it is 53 here with clear skies.

[chescowxman]

We have recorded a 3 day total of 3.29" of rain so far here in East Nantmeal. Some more light rain an drizzle is possible especially late this PM and evening. The sun should return for Wednesday and Thursday with the next chance of showers by Thursday night into Friday. Low temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday night should be in the below normal 40's. The last 11 days have featured below normal temps and this looks to continue through the last day of the month which is Saturday.

Records for today: High 93 (1970) / Low 34 (1983) / Rain 3.00" (1940)

[Andie]

We’re under various severe storm warnings. South Texas has been pounded by hail May get more.  
North Texas has potential, but we’re more likely to get a strong storm and wind.  

91*.  Humid at 53%.  

[Iceresistance]

5 minutes ago, Andie said:

We’re under various severe storm warnings. South Texas has been pounded by hail May get more.  
North Texas has potential, but we’re more likely to get a strong storm and wind.  

91*.  Humid at 53%.  

Someone I know on a different forum near Austin had severe roof damage from Baseball Sized Hail.

[Andie]

North of there got nothing or very little.  Some heavy stuff around Houston.    I can do without the drama. Just give me rain!

[Clinton]

It got warm here today, the temp made it up to 89.  Better tomorrow and Wednesday with temps around 80.

[Clinton]

No doubt September will finish with well above average temps in KC.

@NWSKansasCity

Follow

 

Kansas City has risen into the 80s again today making it the 19th time this September we've hit at least 80. Normal for September is 16 days. The forecast is for each day the rest of the month to reach into the 80s which would put the monthly total at 24.

[OKwx2k4]

On 9/24/2023 at 6:19 AM, Tom said:

@Clinton how did you fair?  Looks like @OKwx2k4 got pounded last night...

Got a great rain and had our ditches cleaned out well. Lol.

[Tom]

I saw this on the news this morning...has anyone else seen a robust acorn crop this year?  This article doesn't necessarily suggest anything of note for predicting the winter season...

https://libanswers.nybg.org/faq/222824#:~:text=The idea goes like this,seeds in a mast year.

[westMJim]

19 minutes ago, Tom said:

I saw this on the news this morning...has anyone else seen a robust acorn crop this year?

On my daily walks I have seem acorns but I don't know if I would call it robust. I will say that for just the end of September there are a lot of leaves starting to turn but that may have more to do with how dry it was this past summer.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 69/54 there was no rain fall, Here in MBY there was a trace. There were 3 HDD’s and no CDD’s The sun was out 28% of the time. For today the average H/L is 70/49 the record high of 92 was set in 2017 and the record low of 30 was set in 1947. The record rain fall amount of 2.27” fell in 1915. Last year the H/L was 57/49 and there was 0.02” of rain fall. At the current time it is cloudy and 61 here in MBY.

The mean for September at Grand Rapids is 64.9. At Lansing 65.1 at Holland 65.0. All locations are above average. The highest reading this month is 91 there have been 3 days of 90 or better. For the summer season there has been 14 that is +4 for the year. There has been 1.23” of rain fall that is -1.61. For the year there has been 27.65 that is -1.56. There have been 66 HDD’s for September and for the season 80 that is a departure of -18. There have been 72 CDD’s this month so far that is +5 and for the year there have been 640 that is a departure of -79.

[Tom]

30 minutes ago, Tom said:

I saw this on the news this morning...has anyone else seen a robust acorn crop this year?  This article doesn't necessarily suggest anything of note for predicting the winter season...

https://libanswers.nybg.org/faq/222824#:~:text=The idea goes like this,seeds in a mast year.

I’ve also seen trees turning colors here as well…these warm and sunny days that are being forecast later this week and into next week should help produce brighter colors.

[Andie]

Low 90’s for the week ahead. 
No rain in sight.  

[Madtown]

The UP on Saturday 

[chescowxman]

The light rain and drizzle has added up to another 0.13" over the last 2 days for a total of 3.38" since Saturday. A bit more drizzle today but finally drying out with the sun returning tomorrow! Shower chances return Thursday night into Friday before clearing out and getting warmer by the weekend.

Records for today: High 93.5 (1895) / Low 30 (1922) / Rain 2.28" (1902)