October 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

23 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Y'all ready for the Ring of Fire?

I was out shopping around 9:30am here in AZ and when I got out of the store I instantly noticed how much dimmer the skies were and it almost had the eery feel to it.  Pretty cool experience.  I'm definitely interested in going to Dallas for the April show next year.

[jaster220]

28 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Jaster covered the BSR pretty well. Just imagine, in modeling, seeing the US over the Bering Sea, then give it 6 weeks or so. You should see a shadow of the pattern repeat. 

It's why folks talk about hoping to see an Aleutian Low in late summer and fall. It means good winter. 

As @Tom added, the lag time for the CONUS reflection, is approx. 2-1/2 to 3 wks 

[Tom]

I'm going to experience the last "Hoorah of Summer" here in the valley as temps have been bumped up into the low 100's to around 100F for at least the next 5 days.  The SW ridge is definitely going to be an exhibit of the new LRC and will be a driving force of colder air from a deep trough for you guys farther east.  It's been a consistent pattern since the beginning of the month and will likely finish this week off the same way we started until next week.

Is this my first storm???  #SWFlow....Let's freaking Go!

 

[Niko]

Its a chilly 48F w/ a blend of clouds & Sun. Leaves are approaching near peak.

[jaster220]

For Michiganders, June 8th, 1953 is a date that will forever live in infamy. I happened to have grown up just a bit east of Flint and have family and former co-workers who were older and remember that day vividly.  I am aware of only (1) photo of the Flint F5 and unfortunately, as thoroughly as this was made, he didn't locate it. That's the only way (imho) this video could have been made just a little bit better. 

 

[chescowxman]

Happy Red October to those who celebrate - Go Phillies! Most of this week will feature nice autumnal weather. We should see temps for most spots in the county remaining in the upper 50's both today and tomorrow. Thursday looks like the best day of the week, with above normal temps in the mid to upper 60's. Rain returns on Friday with cooler temps for the weekend.

Records for today: High 94 (1897) - latest 90 degree day on record / Low 27 (1939) / Rain 1.66 (2019)

[Tom]

Happy Monday and Go D'Backs!  Ya, I gotta root for the home crowd now that I'm in Arizona...it's actually kinda fun to know your town has a winning team and a chance to make it to the World Series.  Speaking of winning, not sure if I wanna call it that way but we may smash a record high set back in 2020 (102F) as temps have yet again been bumped up to a Sizzling 104F!  It's already 75F this morning so we should have a nice head start.  It now looks like I'll be enjoying nearly a full week of 100's bc yesterday PHX had a high of 102F and the next 6 days are Toasty!

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like many in my area have dropped down between 27-31 degrees. Very heavy frost covering everything this morning 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 57/41 there was 0.01” of rain fall there was no snowfall. The day had 16 HDD’s The highest wind gust was 27 MPH out of the NW. The sun was out 33% of the time. For today the average H/L is 61/42 the record high of 83 was set in 1938 and the record low of 25 was set in 1944 and 1977. The record rain fall amount of 1.78” fell in 2016, the record snow fall is a trace on several years the last time was in 2004. Last year the H/L was 52/39 and 0.19” of rain fell. We were in the mist of 8 days in a row last year when rain fell.

[westMJim]

14 hours ago, jaster220 said:

For Michiganders, June 8th, 1953 is a date that will forever live in infamy. I happened to have grown up just a bit east of Flint and have family and former co-workers who were older and remember that day vividly.

Growing up in Bay City and listening to the Flint radio stations and watching the Flint TV stations it was always a big news event every June. Your post brings back the days of listening to WTAC and watching TV station Channel 12.

[Andie]

A chilly 45 this morning.  
High of 66 today. Clear and dry. Beautiful day!

[Hawkeye]

This is what we need to bust the drought.  The GEFS and EPS qpf mean have been steadily rising late in the month as models are trying to shift to a western trough, with tropical moisture being pumped northward.

12z GFS - Obviously an extreme run, but fun to look at.

[Clinton]

41 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This is what we need to bust the drought.  The GEFS and EPS qpf mean have been steadily rising late in the month as models are trying to shift to a western trough, with tropical moisture being pumped northward.

12z GFS

I've been watching the ensembles in the 10-14 day period. There certainly could be some excitement to close out October!

[hawkstwelve]

Pretty colorful (384 hour) snowfall maps are back! Woohoo!

[Tom]

Nothing but Sun here, however, I saw the closest thing to any fall like views are the aspens which are at their peak color up in Flagstaff.

 

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

On 10/14/2023 at 10:47 AM, mlgamer said:

The drought continues unabated here and there is no significant rain in the forecast anytime soon. It has been particularly dry since August and it was already very dry before that. Officially, only 3.43" of rain have fallen since August 1st which is only 31% of normal. In fact, each month has gotten progressively worse in terms of percent of normal: Aug 45%, Sep 34%, Oct 14%. Not a pretty picture.

I have 2.34 since Aug 12th.

[Iceresistance]

Now that is a lot of damage!

[Tom]

The summer sizzle continues here as we smashed the old record and topped out at 105F!  Incredible...this is the 126th day of 100F+  and the avg for a whole season is 93 days. 

[hawkstwelve]

36 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Tomorrow is the day on which 90% of the time the Twin Cities would have received their first freeze.  They haven't had one yet.  The latest first freeze on record there was November 18, 2016.  I could have moved up there this summer, and really wanted to.  But it just wasn't in the cards.  I'll be watching closely to see what I would have missed.  

When I moved there in college in 1994, they had a very un-snowy winter at 29 inches. I was bummed.  But the next two winters were pretty good.  

Surprised they haven't had a freeze yet. Sioux Falls has already had two, on 10/7 and 10/10. You'd think the TC wouldn't be too far behind. 

[Stormy]

9 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

This is what we need to bust the drought.  The GEFS and EPS qpf mean have been steadily rising late in the month as models are trying to shift to a western trough, with tropical moisture being pumped northward.

12z GFS - Obviously an extreme run, but fun to look at.

 

 

The CPC is also thinking this... 

[hawkstwelve]

Looking over the past ten days, only two of them have been above normal. Unfortunately due to large positive departures to start off the month (+26.9 and +25.9) we are still running +3.8 on the month so far and will probably end up positive overall. Although, the last third of the month might run solidly negative. 

As for precip, we are +0.82 on the month already and the back third of the month is looking pretty wet. We will use all we can get! 

Ensembles in pretty good agreement on both aspects of the long range pattern. That's encouraging. 

[Clinton]

6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looking over the past ten days, only two of them have been above normal. Unfortunately due to large positive departures to start off the month (+26.9 and +25.9) we are still running +3.8 on the month so far and will probably end up positive overall. Although, the last third of the month might run solidly negative. 

As for precip, we are +0.82 on the month already and the back third of the month is looking pretty wet. We will use all we can get! 

Ensembles in pretty good agreement on both aspects of the long range pattern. That's encouraging. 

SW Flow is going to bring up a ton of moisture, man do we need this!  The tight temp gradient the ensembles are showing could lead to a severe weather outbreak in the plains.

[Clinton]

11 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Tomorrow is the day on which 90% of the time the Twin Cities would have received their first freeze.  They haven't had one yet.  The latest first freeze on record there was November 18, 2016.  I could have moved up there this summer, and really wanted to.  But it just wasn't in the cards.  I'll be watching closely to see what I would have missed.  

When I moved there in college in 1994, they had a very un-snowy winter at 29 inches. I was bummed.  But the next two winters were pretty good.  

Well if this previous storm last weekend is any indication they are going to have another good winter.

[Andie]

46 this morning on our way to a sunny 74.  
Beautiful weather.  Unfortunately I have a dental appointment this morning.  Well, there’s always the afternoon. 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 52/43 there was no rain or snow fall. The day had 17 HDD’s and the sun was out just 2% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is now down to 60/42 the record high of 84 was set in 1947 the record low of 22 was set in 1972. The most rain fall of 1.91” fell in 1905. The record snow fall of a trace fell in 9 years the last time was last year. The H/L last year was 46/38 with 0.52” of rain along with that reported trace of snow fall.

[chescowxman]

Today should be another day of below normal afternoon temps with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees. Normal highs are in the lower 60's. We should rebound to slightly above normal temps both Wednesday and Thursday before our rain chances ramp up by Friday evening into Saturday. Below normal temperatures return with drier weather by the end of the weekend.

Records for today: High 89 (1908) / Low 25 (1937) / Rain 1.30" (1932)

[Tom]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

SW Flow is going to bring up a ton of moisture, man do we need this!  The tight temp gradient the ensembles are showing could lead to a severe weather outbreak in the plains.

Yes!  Finally, we are going to see what this new LRC has to deliver across the West...I think its going to be a tail of 2 extremely different weather patterns across my area where it will warm up quite a bit and also get wet/cold.  This SW Flow pattern could have some legs as I see it into early NOV and marry that will colder air "bleeding" south into the pattern.

[Iceresistance]

Colder than I expected

[hawkstwelve]

Fully expecting the models to struggle for a little while on the pattern evolution next week. It's looking fairly complex, with three separate systems expected to converge in the middle of the country. The initial trough that drops into the SW (#2), a strong cyclone moving into Mexico followed by Texas (#3), and a stronger trough dropping down the Canadian coast into the PNW (#1). Pair all that with anomalous warmth over the east and cold over the west, we could be looking a pretty dynamic week!

[Niko]

On 10/16/2023 at 8:01 AM, Tom said:

Happy Monday and Go D'Backs!  Ya, I gotta root for the home crowd now that I'm in Arizona...it's actually kinda fun to know your town has a winning team and a chance to make it to the World Series.  Speaking of winning, not sure if I wanna call it that way but we may smash a record high set back in 2020 (102F) as temps have yet again been bumped up to a Sizzling 104F!  It's already 75F this morning so we should have a nice head start.  It now looks like I'll be enjoying nearly a full week of 100's bc yesterday PHX had a high of 102F and the next 6 days are Toasty!

 

Nice! Are you able to adjust to this type of weather this time of the year. By now, Chicagoan's are wearing jackets and hoodies, while you are experiencing 100's. Must be a huge change for you tempwise. Enjoy the south. Its great to experience other places. Also, dont forget to post snowpics from the snowy mtn's this late autumn season and especially winter. Btw: Aspen, CO is on my bucket list.

[Niko]

This upcoming weekend after the rainstorm exists, my area stands the potential for its first real frost as temps drop to near 30F or so. I would not be surprised if areas way north and west experience temps as low as the 20s. Some Freeze and Frost advisories might be looking likely for the latter part of this weekend.

[Niko]

This is where we stand so far: So far, S MI doing good w more hvy rains by weeks end.

 

[Tom]

22 minutes ago, Niko said:

Nice! Are you able to adjust to this type of weather this time of the year. By now, Chicagoan's are wearing jackets and hoodies, while you are experiencing 100's. Must be a huge change for you tempwise. Enjoy the south. Its great to experience other places. Also, dont forget to post snowpics from the snowy mtn's this late autumn season and especially winter. Btw: Aspen, CO is on my bucket list.

In a way, I kinda don't mind the warmth at this time of year but I will miss the seasonal changes of Autumn and the colors.  It has been somewhat of a shock to the system living in 100 degree heat.   When I left Chicago it was perfection, but then I got into Dallas and it cooled off a bit.  Thankfully, the following week it is going to get cooler and hopefully wetter.  We need it!  I will certainly post pics of the snow capped mountains in AZ or somewhere else either in the Sierra's or Rockies.  This is definitely going to be a different experience but I welcome it.  TBH, I was kinda getting bored of living in the MW as I like to experience the outdoors and there is so much to see out here in the West and the bonus is its not that far to travel.

[Iceresistance]

CPC, don't fail us now!

[Andie]

On 10/16/2023 at 5:05 PM, Tom said:

Nothing but Sun here, however, I saw the closest thing to any fall like views are the aspens which are at their peak color up in Flagstaff.

 

 

The worm turns!   I’m glad it isn’t me sweating through October. Hope you like heat. 
We could still see heat here all the way to Christmas.  
Lots of Christmases in Cutoffs!

[Clinton]

CPC outlook for the last week of the month and the GEFS suggesting some may see flakes fly on the backside of the 3 headed monster.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 55/41 there was no rain or snow and the sun was out just 14% of the possible time. There were 17 HDD’s and for the month we are now at 192 and that is +1. For today the average H/L is 60/42 the record high of 82 was set in 1910, 1938 and 1950. The record low of 19 was set in 1976. The record precipitation amount of 1.23 fell in 1923 and the record snow all of 0.9” fell in 1972. Last year the H/L was 41/36 and there was 0.10” of precipitation.

[Tom]

11 hours ago, Clinton said:

CPC outlook for the last week of the month and the GEFS suggesting some may see flakes fly on the backside of the 3 headed monster.

Ol' Man Winter is making an appearance!  The week of the 22nd has been on my calendar and perks my interest as it will be a beneficial pattern for many on the Sub.

[Iceresistance]

GEFS is showing it too

[chescowxman]

The next 2 days look like perfect autumn days. Today will be just about normal high temps in the low 60's with tomorrow in the above normal upper 60's. Rain chances increase on Friday with the steadiest rain moving in by late evening. Much colder weather moves in by Sunday with temps on Monday likely to struggle to escape the 40's for the higher spots of the county.

Records for today: High 89 (1908) / Low 22 (1974) / Rain 1.98" (1911)