October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Cold Snap]

Ended up with 0.58” of rain yesterday.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Snownerd3000 said:

PMM is that cold patch stretching from HI to CA, correct?

Yeah, it’s the most important component in the EOF.

Image below for illustration (positive phase example).

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Good one. Even though it would be more accurate to call them tulip magnolias. They are much more closely related to magnolias than to true poplars.

Your tree knowledge is top-notch.  

[Cloud]

It was a drizzle fest with drip drip drip for most of the night into the morning after the main stuff went thru last night. The heavy drizzle was kinda annoying

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Even in midwinter getting a weeklong stretch of dry sunny weather isn’t that unusual. In fact… it happened just as often in the “good ol’ days” as it does now.

Friday looks like it could get into the mid 80s now for PDX. Another great weekend on the way with rain holding off until Monday.

 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Friday looks like it could get into the mid 80s now for PDX. Another great weekend on the way with rain holding off until Monday.

 

12Z ECMWF is still warm on Monday as well.   Rain holds off until Tuesday morning and then we are back to a ridge by the end of the week on this run.    Pretty dry overall.   

 

[the_convergence_zone]

Near-record high territory for KSEA this weekend. 77 on Saturday is the easiest to break (set last year LOL). 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Hey guys I wonder if we can push Jesse to the brink of suicide this year. Lol!!

[Phishy Wx]

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hey guys I wonder if we can push Jesse to the brink of suicide this year. Lol!!

Wow.   Because its not raining every single day in October?   This typical October weather train bothers you this much?   The irony is you come out swinging and mocking anyone who prefers anything you don't like.   Just doesn't make sense.  

[Omegaraptor]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow.   Because its not raining every single day in October?   This typical October weather train bothers you this much?   The irony is you come out swinging and mocking anyone who prefers anything you don't like.   Just doesn't make sense.  

Prior to 2013 there had never been a dry day in October in the westside PNW before.

[iFred]

@SilverFallsAndrew great weather in Vegas now. You missed some pretty cool monsoonal thunderstorms that hit the other night.

[Cloud]

36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow.   Because its not raining every single day in October?   This typical October weather train bothers you this much?   The irony is you come out swinging and mocking anyone who prefers anything you don't like.   Just doesn't make sense.  

Sometimes it’s just best to leave it as it is. I don’t see how this is a constructive comment given he brought up the “s” word, whether it be serious or not. But it should be treated as a serious thing.

I have no clue weather can have such an effect. But his thoughts are his own and wish Jesse the best. 

Edit: on a note; him lashing out is a way of using this platform to vent frustration. I honestly don’t see an issue with it.
 

We’ll just leave it as that.

[Cascadia_Wx]

It makes me sad, but I very often feel like place isn’t good for me. I’ve tried to scale back and post mostly personal obs the last several months, maybe model commentary or ensembles sometimes, not participate in the flame wars to a fraction of a degree that I used to, ignore certain problem causing posters completely. But, for reasons I can’t fully understand, there seems to be this sense of vicious sadism regarding our warming climate and constantly mocking those who are upset by it in any way. It just feels really ugly and mean to me. It often makes it not feel worth it to log in, period. I’ve been trying my best to ignore it but, it’s constant and persistent. Not sure what the ultimate goal even is aside from wanting me and others who think like me to go away completely.

It’s been an incredibly difficult year in my personal life for reasons I do not wish to go into on here, and following the models/posting about the weather is a nice distraction and something that I take great enjoyment in at its best. I really like and enjoy the input from the majority of posters here as well, but thanks to a select few I am rapidly losing the will to be a part of this community anymore. And maybe that’s just the outcome they want.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It makes me sad, but I very often feel like place isn’t good for me. I’ve tried to scale back and post mostly personal obs the last several months, maybe model commentary or ensembles sometimes, not participate in the flame wars to a fraction of a degree that I used to, ignore certain problem causing posters completely. But, for reasons I can’t fully understand, there seems to be this sense of vicious sadism regarding our warming climate and constantly mocking those who are upset by it in any way. It just feels really ugly and mean to me. It often makes it not feel worth it to log in, period. I’ve been trying my best to ignore it but, it’s constant and persistent. Not sure what the ultimate goal even is aside from wanting me and others who think like me to go away completely.

It’s been an incredibly difficult year in my personal life for reasons I do not wish to go into on here, and following the models/posting about the weather is a nice distraction and something that I take great enjoyment in at its best. I really like and enjoy the input from the majority of posters here as well, but thanks to a select few I am rapidly losing the will to be a part of this community anymore. And maybe that’s just the outcome they want.

Fair enough.   But there is no viscousness at all in discussing weather here.   Everyone has difference preferences.   The weather (and by extension this forum) does not bend to what you want and its not fair to expect that.    I could go back and find hundreds of trolling/mocking posts from you this year.   That is the part I don't get it.   You say you aren't doing it but go back to earlier in the year and then over the last couple months.   You may not realize you are doing it but it happens all the time.   I don't wish anything bad for you and would not want you to stop posting.   I love the variety of preferences on here.   For some reason you think everything is personal and its definitely not.

[TT-SEA]

Case in point... there is a warm spell coming.   That is actually happening.   @Frontal Snowsquall posting a forecast chart is not personal.   Its informative and on topic with what we discuss here.    You want us to ignore anything that does not match your preferences?  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It makes me sad, but I very often feel like place isn’t good for me. I’ve tried to scale back and post mostly personal obs the last several months, maybe model commentary or ensembles sometimes, not participate in the flame wars to a fraction of a degree that I used to, ignore certain problem causing posters completely. But, for reasons I can’t fully understand, there seems to be this sense of vicious sadism regarding our warming climate and constantly mocking those who are upset by it in any way. It just feels really ugly and mean to me. It often makes it not feel worth it to log in, period. I’ve been trying my best to ignore it but, it’s constant and persistent. Not sure what the ultimate goal even is aside from wanting me and others who think like me to go away completely.

It’s been an incredibly difficult year in my personal life for reasons I do not wish to go into on here, and following the models/posting about the weather is a nice distraction and something that I take great enjoyment in at its best. I really like and enjoy the input from the majority of posters here as well, but thanks to a select few I am rapidly losing the will to be a part of this community anymore. And maybe that’s just the outcome they want.

I wish we had cool and stormy weather right now but we can’t control what Mother Nature does. Just have to take advantage of this good weather. Have some fun and go on a nice hike this weekend and take pics. I always love seeing your awesome hiking pictures.

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS brings the rain back sooner than the ECMWF and is actually a little faster than its 12Z run... coming in Sunday night.  

[TT-SEA]

Seems odd that this drama happening now when the fire season is most definitely over for the year.   A warm spell now has no impact on anything.   And its a Nino winter so avoiding a cold October might be a good thing for cold/snow fans.  I get the anxiety in August when its hot and dry... I felt it too.   But now its just wet periods and dry periods for the next 6 months.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Step back from the ledge my friends. Each day is a precious gift from the creator and creative life force. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A very nice 69F and clearing up. Hopefully some good night sky viewing tonight.

[Meatyorologist]

Looking forward to a few warm days, especially after all the rain. Our grass is growing back already and this will only accelerate it. Not going to see a 'brown winter' like 2020-21. Grateful.

Troughing is pretty certain to return by D8, and the dynamics of this upcoming ridge don't look to escape climo, so I'm not really worried about 85F+ October death or some awful perma-ridge.

[T-Town]

Turned into deck weather this evening. 63 degrees and dead calm. 

[The Cats Meow]

Don't let the old man in.

When he rides up on his horse

And you feel that cold bitter wind

Look out your window and smile

Don't let the old man in.

 

Heard this song a few days ago and it hit.

Enjoy each day, rain or shine and post up some local observations.  Life goes by fast.  Can't change the weather or what it is or isn't going to do.

62 here in the Puyallup Valley and very pleasant.

It's going to get chilly tonight me thinks.

[YahRaEl]

Ended up with a decent day here at Eastside Tacoma got up to 63° for the high

[Front Ranger]

5 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hey guys I wonder if we can push Jesse to the brink of suicide this year. Lol!!

The last couple weeks were pretty nice for cool/wet lovers. 

[MossMan]

Slow evening on the forum. 
.01” on the day! 
This morning on the way to work, and this evening while BBQ’ing. 

[Phil]

5 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It makes me sad, but I very often feel like place isn’t good for me. I’ve tried to scale back and post mostly personal obs the last several months, maybe model commentary or ensembles sometimes, not participate in the flame wars to a fraction of a degree that I used to, ignore certain problem causing posters completely. But, for reasons I can’t fully understand, there seems to be this sense of vicious sadism regarding our warming climate and constantly mocking those who are upset by it in any way. It just feels really ugly and mean to me. It often makes it not feel worth it to log in, period. I’ve been trying my best to ignore it but, it’s constant and persistent. Not sure what the ultimate goal even is aside from wanting me and others who think like me to go away completely.

It’s been an incredibly difficult year in my personal life for reasons I do not wish to go into on here, and following the models/posting about the weather is a nice distraction and something that I take great enjoyment in at its best. I really like and enjoy the input from the majority of posters here as well, but thanks to a select few I am rapidly losing the will to be a part of this community anymore. And maybe that’s just the outcome they want.

I’m sorry man. I’ve been through some dark shit myself, so perhaps I can empathize. You can dm me anytime.

[Phishy Wx]

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[Snownerd3000]

16 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Just was reading a paper on how -pdo mutes the effects of El nino. I'll see if I can find it. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 hours ago, The Cats Meow said:

Enjoy each day, rain or shine and post up some local observations.  Life goes by fast.  Can't change the weather or what it is or isn't going to do.

62 here in the Puyallup Valley and very pleasant.

It's going to get chilly tonight me thinks.

100% what you were doing back in April right? Easy for those who love warmth to play the fake-zen act with our climate inordinately moving in their favor. And during the rare times it doesn’t, boy do we hear about it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

31 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Just was reading a paper on how -pdo mutes the effects of El nino. I'll see if I can find it. 

Phil will be right with you. 

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil will be right with you. 

[Phil]

43 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Just was reading a paper on how -pdo mutes the effects of El nino. I'll see if I can find it. 

No it doesn’t. But external/off-domain forcings that act on PDO can also change the ET response to ENSO.

[Chewbacca Defense]

6 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It makes me sad, but I very often feel like place isn’t good for me. I’ve tried to scale back and post mostly personal obs the last several months, maybe model commentary or ensembles sometimes, not participate in the flame wars to a fraction of a degree that I used to, ignore certain problem causing posters completely. But, for reasons I can’t fully understand, there seems to be this sense of vicious sadism regarding our warming climate and constantly mocking those who are upset by it in any way. It just feels really ugly and mean to me. It often makes it not feel worth it to log in, period. I’ve been trying my best to ignore it but, it’s constant and persistent. Not sure what the ultimate goal even is aside from wanting me and others who think like me to go away completely.

It’s been an incredibly difficult year in my personal life for reasons I do not wish to go into on here, and following the models/posting about the weather is a nice distraction and something that I take great enjoyment in at its best. I really like and enjoy the input from the majority of posters here as well, but thanks to a select few I am rapidly losing the will to be a part of this community anymore. And maybe that’s just the outcome they want.

Hang in there, I think just about everyone is guilty of throwing personal attacks and flame wars on here, just one of the downsides of a faceless media like an internet forum, pretty much everyone becomes keyboard warriors at one point or another.  It doesn't make it right, just a sad reality.  We've often talked about a forum get together, and I wonder if we would still be as nasty towards each other if we all did sit down over a few beers (or non-alcoholic beverage of choice) and got to know each other.

 

Pretty frustrating to be away from the forum for a day or so and come back and there is 5-10 new pages....."oh cool the models must be showing something exciting!"  Nope....just another flamewar/pissing contest/d*ck measuring contest.  One of the incidents this year almost made me quit, but I just took a long break instead.  It kinda sucked because there actually was some interesting weather stuff going on, but it was 4 posts of d*ck measuring to 1 post of meaningful information.

 

Sorry to hear about the personal stuff, I've been struggling this year with some pretty heavy personal stuff as well, and kinda locked up over trying to figure out next steps.  I think I am at a point of choosing a path and plodding forward. Just gotta keep putting one foot in front of the other and try to grind through it.

[Front Ranger]

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil will be right with you. 

THE PDO AND ITS PHASES ARE MEANINGLESS I TELL YOU

[Front Ranger]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

No it doesn’t. But external/off-domain forcings that act on PDO can also change the ET response to ENSO.

I think you sometimes get hung up too much on semantics/chicken-egg with this. Yes, the PDO is a reflection of other external forces. But that doesn't mean that what the PDO is representing is not influential and to an extent predictive.

[Front Ranger]

16 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Hang in there, I think just about everyone is guilty of throwing personal attacks and flame wars on here, just one of the downsides of a faceless media like an internet forum, pretty much everyone becomes keyboard warriors at one point or another.  It doesn't make it right, just a sad reality.  We've often talked about a forum get together, and I wonder if we would still be as nasty towards each other if we all did sit down over a few beers (or non-alcoholic beverage of choice) and got to know each other.

 

Pretty frustrating to be away from the forum for a day or so and come back and there is 5-10 new pages....."oh cool the models must be showing something exciting!"  Nope....just another flamewar/pissing contest/d*ck measuring contest.  One of the incidents this year almost made me quit, but I just took a long break instead.  It kinda sucked because there actually was some interesting weather stuff going on, but it was 4 posts of d*ck measuring to 1 post of meaningful information.

 

Sorry to hear about the personal stuff, I've been struggling this year with some pretty heavy personal stuff as well, and kinda locked up over trying to figure out next steps.  I think I am at a point of choosing a path and plodding forward. Just gotta keep putting one foot in front of the other and try to grind through it.

While all of this is true...I think the best approach (at least for me) is just to remember that it's the internet, and don't take it personal. And don't worry too much about the silly pissing contests or whatever.

Easier said than done sometimes, of course. But you aren't going to change other people and if you really can't help letting them get to you, then yeah, logging off is probably the best choice. 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Hang in there, I think just about everyone is guilty of throwing personal attacks and flame wars on here, just one of the downsides of a faceless media like an internet forum, pretty much everyone becomes keyboard warriors at one point or another.  It doesn't make it right, just a sad reality.  We've often talked about a forum get together, and I wonder if we would still be as nasty towards each other if we all did sit down over a few beers (or non-alcoholic beverage of choice) and got to know each other.

 

Pretty frustrating to be away from the forum for a day or so and come back and there is 5-10 new pages....."oh cool the models must be showing something exciting!"  Nope....just another flamewar/pissing contest/d*ck measuring contest.  One of the incidents this year almost made me quit, but I just took a long break instead.  It kinda sucked because there actually was some interesting weather stuff going on, but it was 4 posts of d*ck measuring to 1 post of meaningful information.

 

Sorry to hear about the personal stuff, I've been struggling this year with some pretty heavy personal stuff as well, and kinda locked up over trying to figure out next steps.  I think I am at a point of choosing a path and plodding forward. Just gotta keep putting one foot in front of the other and try to grind through it.

It's been a challenging year for us as well.  Sort of forces perspective on what is really important.  I think this forum is more friendly and more respectful than it was a decade ago... and I agree with your sentiment on a meeting in person.