Gradient Keeper Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 GFS 10 Day Rainfall totals. 6z GFS was clearly out to lunch(Applebees?) (4-run trend) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 31 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: GFS 10 Day Rainfall totals. 6z GFS was clearly out to lunch(Applebees?) (4-run trend) 3 martini lunch 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 9, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Just a reminder, 2019 was the 3rd coldest October on record at SLE and that SON was the coldest since 1985. Kind of impressive if you think about it. Our coldest temp in 2019-2020 was on October 26th. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 Today's front is sure anemic. Barely limping inland. Worth mentioning a week ago this front looked like an AR event on many runs. 2 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Today's front is sure anemic. Barely limping inland. Worth mentioning a week ago this front looked like an AR event on many runs. we should go and compare last weeks GFS/Euro/GEM for this storm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: we should and compare last weeks GFS/Euro/GEM for this storm But past performance does not indicate future results. We are entering the time of year ripe for AR events and the models could easily error the other way and it sneaks up on us. I would lean towards a significant AR event happening at some point this month... but also saying I don't really trust the models. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Today's front is sure anemic. Barely limping inland. Worth mentioning a week ago this front looked like an AR event on many runs. Here's total precip map for the euro run since 00z October 4 - last time it rained so the only precip shown on all these maps is from this mon-wed period. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 incoming on the 12z Euro 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Here's total precip map for the euro run since 00z October 4 - last time it rained so the only precip shown on all these maps is from this mon-wed period. I was specifically talking about the front today. I think the system coming tomorrow is actually stronger than was shown so the Mon-Wed period is not that different. But I remember posting several maps a week ago for today showing heavy rain moving in this morning. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I was specifically talking about the front today. I think the system coming tomorrow is actually stronger than was shown so the Mon-Wed period is not that different. But I remember posting several maps a week ago for today showing heavy rain moving in this morning. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 12Z ECMWF is very wet from Saturday night through Monday night. Comes in waves... with some breaks. Sunday actually looks fairly sunny in the middle of this period. 5 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: But past performance does not indicate future results. We are entering the time of year ripe for AR events and the models could easily error the other way and it sneaks up on us. I would lean towards a significant AR event happening at some point this month... but also saying I don't really trust the models. that's fine i'd just like to compare 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF is very wet from Saturday night through Monday night. Comes in waves... with some breaks. Sunday actually looks fairly sunny in the middle of this period. basically nothing over here. most likely right 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 Colors have started to pop out against the evergreen backdrop around Everett. Holding out for what is starting to look like the best round of color I have seen in several years, maybe since I moved back from Philly. So far the birch, aspen, and poplars have their tips turning but the breeze is showing that the leaves are remaining. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 1 minute ago, iFred said: Colors have started to pop out against the evergreen backdrop around Everett. Holding out for what is starting to look like the best round of color I have seen in several years, maybe since I moved back from Philly. So far the birch, aspen, and poplars have their tips turning but the breeze is showing that the leaves are remaining. yeah, things seem more vivid over here to this year. not sure if most vivid i've seen but def better than last fall, where everything just shriveled up and died, dead brown 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 Low of 53 this morning. No measurable rain yet. 1 Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 also whet 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YahRaEl Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, RentonHill said: also whet 1 Quote Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft ☥𓂀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 12 minutes ago, RentonHill said: also whet looks a little better out here. need more 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 4 hours ago, iFred said: I remember that halloween for the late night snow fall in Bonney Lake. My fuzzy memories tell me it was a pretty decent winter for the Seattle area. Early Jan had a pretty decent cold snap by 21st century standards. The rest of the winter was meh. And then there's the 5" of rain on 10/20/03 lol Was the South Valley Surprise in Feb '02 or '03? It's one of my favorite PNW windstorms just because of how strong, efficient, and unpredicted it was. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YahRaEl Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 Eric Snodgrass forecast https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pzzSiD-2tX4 Quote Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft ☥𓂀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 6 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Probably won't be a super Nino and then crash hard. I could be wrong, but I don’t think it’ll crash super hard. Statistically it would be extraordinary to develop another La Niña less than 2 years after a 3-year La Niña. Based on that and other reasons, I suspect the next 7+ years will be more El Niño dominated. Though I may be biased..I’d be happy not to see another La Niña again. 1 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 Long range EPS is El Niño city. +TNH/+PNA, also some +NAO tendency which fits the +TNH. Interesting how quickly that pattern has established this fall. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 You can thank developing Typhoon Bolaven for the rapid dissipation of this upcoming ridge on the models. It'll cause a jet extension which will break our ridge down from the side. Then, according to the Euro, you can also thank it for a period of warm weather around D10+, as its remnants bomb out over the GOA and pump up another ridge right overhead. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, Phil said: Long range EPS is El Niño city. +TNH/+PNA, also some +NAO tendency which fits the +TNH. Interesting how quickly that pattern has established this fall. Isn't that a pattern which destabilizes the SPV? Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 78 and toasty out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 54 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Early Jan had a pretty decent cold snap by 21st century standards. The rest of the winter was meh. And then there's the 5" of rain on 10/20/03 lol Was the South Valley Surprise in Feb '02 or '03? It's one of my favorite PNW windstorms just because of how strong, efficient, and unpredicted it was. South Valley Surprise was February 2002 I believe. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: South Valley Surprise was February 2002 I believe. Ah. Also just realizing now that even if it were in Feb '03 it still wouldn't have been in the 2003-04 winter so it was kind of an irrelevant question lol Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 2 hours ago, iFred said: Colors have started to pop out against the evergreen backdrop around Everett. Holding out for what is starting to look like the best round of color I have seen in several years, maybe since I moved back from Philly. So far the birch, aspen, and poplars have their tips turning but the breeze is showing that the leaves are remaining. Colors definitely seem pretty good so far here. I don’t normally take much notice as I find them to be pretty dull and generally overrated in this area. But right now the yellows and oranges seem quite bright and colorful 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 3 hours ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF is very wet from Saturday night through Monday night. Comes in waves... with some breaks. Sunday actually looks fairly sunny in the middle of this period. We wont get half of what is advertised here up north Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: We wont get half of what is advertised here up north Impossible to know at this range. Rain shadowing is pretty limited in that setup 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: You can thank developing Typhoon Bolaven for the rapid dissipation of this upcoming ridge on the models. It'll cause a jet extension which will break our ridge down from the side. Then, according to the Euro, you can also thank it for a period of warm weather around D10+, as its remnants bomb out over the GOA and pump up another ridge right overhead. Kind of chicken/egg too since autumnal pacific jet activity is to be expected with the current LP regime in the tropics associated w/ ENSO & IOD. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: Isn't that a pattern which destabilizes the SPV? Yes during the middle of winter. +PNA/+WPO increases WAFz thru NPAC, triggering top-down W1 response in the SPV. Scand/Eurasia ridge in tandem opens door to upward propagating W2. In 2018/19 they occurred in tandem, which is how that SSW evolved and overpowered the El Nino inflluence. In fact you could argue that *extreme* blocking during El Nino has a higher ceiling to produce anomalous outcomes in the PNW given the southward shift in the NPAC jet & augmented STJ. There's a reason 1968/69 was one of the greatest winter up there. 3 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 3 hours ago, iFred said: Colors have started to pop out against the evergreen backdrop around Everett. Holding out for what is starting to look like the best round of color I have seen in several years, maybe since I moved back from Philly. So far the birch, aspen, and poplars have their tips turning but the breeze is showing that the leaves are remaining. The color going over Stevens Pass last Friday was absolutely stunning! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 That system today sure fell apart kind of like cheap Walmart luggage. No offense to anyone who works at Walmart, used to work at Walmart, or has aspirations and goals to work at Walmart. Outstanding. 00z GFS in 4 hours 44 minutes 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 4yrs ago today I had a frosty roof! 1 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 (edited) Pretty blah last four days with a typical overachieving high end warm event, temps at least 2-3 degrees above most guidance each day. 79/49 on Thursday, morning fog then severe clear. 84/56 on Friday, severe clear and east winds. 83/54 on Saturday, severe clear and east winds. 78/51 yesterday, morning fog, lighter east winds, then clearing, staying warm and sunny with high clouds moving in toward sunset. Edited October 9, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx 2 1 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 5 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Today's front is sure anemic. Barely limping inland. Worth mentioning a week ago this front looked like an AR event on many runs. Yes. They've downgraded the winds in Eastern WA as a result. Quite overcast now after a sunny morning. 2 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 Today has been nicer so far. Very mild low of just 58, but temps have warmed very little or stayed steady most the day with light rainfall moving in late morning. High of 62 so far, picked up about 0.06” rain. Mostly cloudy and 61 currently with some drizzle around. Looking forward to some wetter systems in the future, although temps look to stay on the mild side of average overall the next 7-10 days. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken in Wood Village Posted October 9, 2023 Report Share Posted October 9, 2023 Check out all that cold air coming through the Alaska islands (I forgot what the chain of islands there called). Bet there is some really strong winds going through those gaps between islands. And check out the next storm coming our way 🌧🌦 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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