October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Cool view from Space Needle of some showers over the Sound.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

When should we commence in the start of model riding season?

Choose below.

Tonight 00z runs.

October 12-15
October 16-19
October 20-23
October 24-27
October 28-31

20-23. Give us plenty of time to track this bad boy

 

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

20-23. Give us plenty of time to track this bad boy

 

Seems perfect to me. That will be fun.

00z ECMWF (Halloween night) in 464 hours 41 minutes

[Front Ranger]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some of what is being shown in Oregon and SW WA has happened already.  

That's correct, Tim.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

22 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

When should we commence in the start of model riding season?

Choose below.

Tonight 00z runs.

October 12-15
October 16-19
October 20-23
October 24-27
October 28-31

Night shift starting Nov 1 Rob?

[Phil]

The 12z EPS has a full blown canonical niño pattern week-2.

The source region(s) where continental polar air masses are produced is universally warmer than average thanks to the +TNH/+PNA pattern. Verbatim this would also destructively interfere with the -PDO/-PMM SSTA signature over the NPAC, so could see that begin to erode as well.

[Phil]

Also very impressive coupled +IOD regime. Those easterlies @ 60E are the dominant LP feature at the moment.

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Night shift starting Nov 1 Rob?

Hey bruh! Yeah, if not a tad sooner.

00z GFS in 6 hours 8 minutes

[the_convergence_zone]

Made it to the 1.00" mark for the storm thanks to this ongoing shower. 

[Phil]

Just a gargantuan, complete discharge of the IPWP ongoing right now. +IOD shuts down any and all Indonesian throughflow from E-IO sector of IPWP, while EPAC Niño drains the WPAC sector.

All the heat which built up in the WPAC/IPWP due to 3yrs of La Niña is now being released, all at once. Result is the crazy spike in global temps and historic spike in emitted/outgoing LW radiation @ top of atmosphere (see CERES measurements..crazy stuff).

Probably the most impressive heat release since (at least) 1997/98. Possibly since WWII.

[Phil]

Convection is going to be completely shut down over maritime continent/IPWP this winter. Just a complete flip of the script vs the last 3 years. Even if the expressed El Niño SSTA signature is not exceptionally strong, this is the most “anti-La Niña” state physically possible over the WPAC/IPWP domain, which is the backbone of tropical forcing on all relevant timescales.

Even unfiltered RMM/MJO plots might not reach phase-4/5 all winter.

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Just a gargantuan, complete discharge of the IPWP ongoing right now. +IOD shuts down any and all Indonesian throughflow from E-IO sector of IPWP, while EPAC Niño drains the WPAC sector.

All the heat which built up in the WPAC/IPWP due to 3yrs of La Niña is now being released, all at once. Result is the crazy spike in global temps and historic spike in emitted/outgoing LW radiation @ top of atmosphere (see CERES measurements..crazy stuff).

Probably the most impressive heat release since (at least) 1997/98. Possibly since WWII.

I think that the cessation of sulfide aerosol emissions over the Atlantic, in conjunction with the massive influx of water vapor into the Stratosphere due to Hunga Tonga, has a good deal to do with how much we've warmed in the last year.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Convection is going to be completely shut down over maritime continent/IPWP this winter. Just a complete flip of the script vs the last 3 years. Even if the expressed El Niño SSTA signature is not exceptionally strong, this is the most “anti-La Niña” state physically possible over the WPAC/IPWP domain, which is the backbone of tropical forcing on all relevant timescales.

Even unfiltered RMM/MJO plots might not reach phase-4/5 all winter.

So a dud here in the PNW. Let's get it out of the way.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I think that the cessation of sulfide aerosol emissions over the Atlantic, in conjunction with the massive influx of water vapor into the Stratosphere due to Hunga Tonga, has a good deal to do with how much we've warmed in the last year.

You referenced Tonga.   Some on here think it has no impact and should never be mentioned.    

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You referenced Tonga.   Some on here think it has no impact and should never be mentioned.    

The mechanisms are pretty obvious. Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. Ash and sulfur emissions from volcanic eruptions are reflective aerosols. Much more of the former was released than the latter, ergo...

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

The mechanisms are pretty obvious. Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. Ash and sulfur emissions from volcanic eruptions are reflective aerosols. Much more of the former was released than the latter, ergo...

Agreed.   

[Meatyorologist]

This is pretty cool.

[the_convergence_zone]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The mechanisms are pretty obvious. Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. Ash and sulfur emissions from volcanic eruptions are reflective aerosols. Much more of the former was released than the latter, ergo...

What's fascinating is that nobody really knows how much of it of the signal is from the various components (Tonga, aerosols, ENSO, and climate change). 

If I had to rank them (globally), it seems like the magnitude is: (1) ENSO; (2) Tonga; (3/4 tie) climate change and sulfate aerosols. With the latter two being on the order of 0.1 C globally and the former two both potentially being on the order of several tenths of a degree C. 

[Gradient Keeper]

31 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The mechanisms are pretty obvious. Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. Ash and sulfur emissions from volcanic eruptions are reflective aerosols. Much more of the former was released than the latter, ergo...

100% agreed.

[MWG]

Well rip!
 

[Tyler Mode]

We hadn't had a tornado in Clark County in 2 years and 2 weeks!  Until today in La Center, about an EF (-1) winds I would guess 45-60 mph lol

We'll take it!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, MWG said:

Well rip!
 

Sad

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

So a dud here in the PNW. Let's get it out of the way.

Who knows, but the fact we have had a pretty good winning streak of snowy winters plus Niño being in play makes me strongly suspect we’re in for a dud this season. So be it. Sometimes, duds happen.

[Cold Snap]

Took this cool picture of a cloud with an anvil shape.

[iFred]

34 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Who knows, but the fact we have had a pretty good winning streak of snowy winters plus Niño being in play makes me strongly suspect we’re in for a dud this season. So be it. Sometimes, duds happen.

Not everyone likes snow and cold. I've got a new lawn, garden work, and some early spring projects I want to take care of. Bring on the Med!

[T-Town]

.61 today and 1.47 for the month. Currently 58 degrees. 

[Omegaraptor]

2 hours ago, MWG said:

Well rip!
 

Astronomical event occurring between October and April = solid sheet of slate gray overcast everywhere north of Redding

[Ken in Wood Village]

• I saw a post from Mark Nelsen on Facebook. There was a EF0 that hit La Center about an hour ago. 

[T-Town]

Stormy. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

38 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

• I saw a post from Mark Nelsen on Facebook. There was a EF0 that hit La Center about an hour ago. 

Demonic

[YahRaEl]

Picked up an inch of rain between yesterday and today totals here at Eastside Tacoma 

[TacomaWx]

0.50” yesterday and 0.48” today. 1.52” this month. 

[MossMan]

Brrrr. 

[Dave]

2 hours ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

• I saw a post from Mark Nelsen on Facebook. There was a EF0 that hit La Center about an hour ago. 

Here's a video of it:

 

[MossMan]

South of Seattle is going to rock this winter with major weather events. Up here is going to be No Man’s Land Dullsville U.S.A. 

[MossMan]

Potatoes from our garden! 

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Potatoes from our garden! 

We have tons of potatoes to still harvest out there... so good!

[Snownerd3000]

9 hours ago, RentonHill said:

20-23. Give us plenty of time to track this bad boy

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 2.12" on the month now. 54F with some light rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Up to 2.12" on the month now. 54F with some light rain.

Early blessings