October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[RentonHill]

Euro day 4 compared to blippi and slippi. Both minions want to develop that ATL storm while Euro doesn't bite. 

 

[RentonHill]

WHoops had to let the dog out Euro day 6 compared to others

 

[RentonHill]

Euro day 6 four-run trend

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro embarrasses itself once again. 

Edited October 20, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Euro embarrasses itself once again. 

baffin 4 lyfe

[RentonHill]

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Euro embarrasses itself once again. 

I read that the Europeans have given up and are de-commissioning the ECMWF and EPS.    Performance is always at the bottom and way below all of the models.  

[Meatyorologist]

Any of yall thought about going into a winter completely blind? No models, no forecasts, no radar, no nothin'

I could never because I'd miss out on the four mixed snowflakes in the rain at 3:30am, which constitutes 90% of our observable snowfall.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Euro rug pull. Not terribly surprised. 

[Phil]

More El Niño - like circulation over the NPAC has spiked the PDO significantly in just the last 3 weeks.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Any of yall thought about going into a winter completely blind? No models, no forecasts, no radar, no nothin'

I could never because I'd miss out on the four mixed snowflakes in the rain at 3:30am, which constitutes 90% of our observable snowfall.

It would be pretty hard to do in this era but I bet you could learn a ton from just watching the clouds and a personal weather station and trying to guess what is going to happen. I love going on a backpacking trip or somewhere off the grid and having to make my own weather forecast. 

I've experienced a couple of surprise snowfalls and they were some of my favorite weather experiences ever. I followed the weather for as long as I can remember and was always aware of the forecast, but it was easier for surprises to slip through the cracks back before I understood how to look at weather models, NWS forecast discussions, etc. 

Once when I was maybe ~12 I woke up and looked out the window and there was a fresh coat of like 3-4" of snow on everything that was completely unexpected (at least based on the local news forecast the night before). I'll never forget that feeling of looking out the window and seeing that. 

The more recent one that happened was around 2006-ish in Madison WI in mid-October. There was a fairly potent cold front coming through with strong winds and rain but the forecast was confidently for all rain (it was mid-October after all). I went to a movie with my girlfriend that evening and it was raining and 45ish when we went in, two hours later we came out of the movie and there was a coat of 2-3" of snow everywhere. It was such a shock. In that group of people from the movie there were two people visiting from Texas who basically turned into children when they saw the snow and they were with some locals who were total grumps about the snow ("...see what you think of snow when you have to deal with 6 months of it..."). 

I know we've had surprise flakes in Seattle but it would take something really extraordinary to get a surprise couple inches that slipped past those of us that carefully monitor the forecasts. 

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Euro rug pull. Not terribly surprised. 

Based on the ensemble mean, it looks like a total cancel. The meteograms will probably show like 90% of members with the warmer solution. To be fair, it's been trending that way for several runs now. The GEFS hasn't gotten the message yet other than a few outlier members. 

I definitely cursed myself by mentioning cold on Twitter yesterday LOL. I better keep my mouth shut until it's totally locked in. 

[Meatyorologist]

Yuma, AZ is closer to the Pacific ocean than Portland, OR.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yuma, AZ is closer to the Pacific ocean than Portland, OR.

I can see Russia from my house.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

20 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It would be pretty hard to do in this era but I bet you could learn a ton from just watching the clouds and a personal weather station and trying to guess what is going to happen. I love going on a backpacking trip or somewhere off the grid and having to make my own weather forecast. 

I've experienced a couple of surprise snowfalls and they were some of my favorite weather experiences ever. I followed the weather for as long as I can remember and was always aware of the forecast, but it was easier for surprises to slip through the cracks back before I understood how to look at weather models, NWS forecast discussions, etc. 

Once when I was maybe ~12 I woke up and looked out the window and there was a fresh coat of like 3-4" of snow on everything that was completely unexpected (at least based on the local news forecast the night before). I'll never forget that feeling of looking out the window and seeing that. 

The more recent one that happened was around 2006-ish in Madison WI in mid-October. There was a fairly potent cold front coming through with strong winds and rain but the forecast was confidently for all rain (it was mid-October after all). I went to a movie with my girlfriend that evening and it was raining and 45ish when we went in, two hours later we came out of the movie and there was a coat of 2-3" of snow everywhere. It was such a shock. In that group of people from the movie there were two people visiting from Texas who basically turned into children when they saw the snow and they were with some locals who were total grumps about the snow ("...see what you think of snow when you have to deal with 6 months of it..."). 

I know we've had surprise flakes in Seattle but it would take something really extraordinary to get a surprise couple inches that slipped past those of us that carefully monitor the forecasts. 

I still get surprises at my elevation. Being on the rain/snow line often a few small changes can bring several inches of snow to my house with none falling just down the road. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS...

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS...

Fog. 

[Phil]

46 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS...

Pattern gearing up for a CONUS megatorch from the looks of that.

[Snownerd3000]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

More El Niño - like circulation over the NPAC has spiked the PDO significantly in just the last 3 weeks.

Crazy climb. Nearly - 3 to 0 in a few weeks time. Looks like the most rapid change in pdo value over that period of time. 

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Crazy climb. Nearly - 3 to 0 in a few weeks time. Looks like the most rapid change in pdo value over that period of time. 

Yep, though be fair I’m sure the overall monthly October value will be closer to -1.5 since it started out so low. But yeah, big difference in the NPAC circulation year, the effects of which are increasing as wind stresses increase in magnitude during the cold season.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Goofus is doubling down.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

I'm in the deep stuff...

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I'm in the deep stuff...

18Z GFS is really dry except for that system on Tuesday.   That is the only system shown.   Pretty odd heading into November.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS is really dry except for that system on Tuesday.  

That system is a perfect setup for me to get snow. Temps likely a few degrees warm

[Front Ranger]

Wish this GFS run had been the Euro.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I'm in the deep stuff...

PARTY AT PAF’s HOUSE!! 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wish this GFS run had been the Euro.

Let's see what tonight brings. 

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS shows a massive snowstorm from Colorado to Minnesota.  

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS shows a massive snowstorm from Colorado to Minnesota.  

Still a massive difference between the GFS and...well, all other models next week. Would be the biggest coup since Sandy if the GFS ends up being right.

[the_convergence_zone]

Euro for next week:  

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Euro for next week:  

That period of uncertainty next week stands out like a sore thumb. Same standard deviations as the end of the run.

[Phil]

The ICON was the only model in the GFS camp and its 18z run made a pretty big jump towards the ECMWF solution.

Would be hilarious if the GFS scored a once-in-a-blue-moon coup but I’d put my money on the Euro/EPS.

[MossMan]

10 degrees cooler for night two of BBQ’ing. 
53 currently! 
Sound up! 

[Meatyorologist]

Weak @$$ Arctic trough... Saving the good stuff for later

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Let's track the lack of any meaningful pattern changes. That sounds like fun, right? If you're like me you always hate to see a pattern change fall apart. At least it's early Fall and we're not seeing an arctic blast disappear inside 96 hours. Those are especially painful. Yeah. How about we don't revisit the last time that occurred. Outstanding. Anyhow. Some rain and dry weather over the next 10 days isn't just likely, it's a MBG money back guarantee.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 - I could be very wrong, but 00z GFS at just Day 2 has the appearance of a model run that may be drastically different.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2.5 (4-run trend) hmmm? I might be onto(or on) something.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

(4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

I started to notice a big shift around HR 30.