November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[RentonHill]

Full extended EPS run. Potential???? I say yes!!! 

[Phil]

33 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I spoke too soon. Trended upward again.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Interesting to see the differences between the extended EPS and regular EPS that show up now. Comparing hr 336 from both 00z runs. 

 

I believe only difference between them is the number of ensemble members. But it’s really the same model.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The extended EPS run is the previous 00z, the only difference is the number of ensemble members. But it’s the same model.

Wait so its not last nights 00z, its from 11/09 even though it says 11/10? I thought the number of members (and maybe the resolution at 1degree instead of 0.5? according to those maps?) was the only difference, hence I was surprised to see a noticeably different result on the map. 

[awright-31]

Wind advisory out for southern areas tonight now as well, including Pierce, Thurston, Grays Harbor counties. Winds 20-30 mph w/ gusts to 50 mph, 7:00 pm to 7:00 am.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Wait so its not last nights 00z, its from 11/09 even though it says 11/10? I thought the number of members (and maybe the resolution at 1degree instead of 0.5? according to those maps?) was the only difference, hence I was surprised to see a noticeably different result on the map. 

I didn’t read your post carefully enough, initially thought you were comparing the current 12z EPS to the 00z extended EPS. My mistake.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I didn’t read your post carefully enough, initially thought you were comparing the current 12z EPS to the 00z extended EPS. My mistake.

thats what i thought. we're not all mouth breathers here....hmph

[RentonHill]

[the_convergence_zone]

Lots of cold ensemble members, more so in the Euro. 

[Deweydog]

Crud muffin Friday…

Frozen Turkey Model Frenzy 2023 falls apart and then I realize I totally missed this:

Edited November 10, 2023 by Deweydog

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Crud muffin Friday…

Frozen Turkey Model Frenzy 2023 falls apart and then I realize I totally missed this:

D**n do you think he eats it bones and all??

[Cold Snap]

Looks like it could be breezy tonight for some.

[Phil]

00z extended EPS control run is a pants tent.

If only it were real.

[umadbro]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Y’all throwing in the towel real quick on one bad goofus run

Dude you haven’t even seen a 1/16th of it yet.

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

D**n do you think he eats it bones and all??

I hope so. That’s where the nutrients are! Just like the crust on bread.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Y’all throwing in the towel real quick on one bad goofus run

you new here?

[Phishy Wx]

49 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I'm starting a go fund me to tear down the Cascades so we can get more snow..... Who's in

can you take out the Canadian Rockies while you're at it?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

28 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

Wind advisory out for southern areas tonight now as well, including Pierce, Thurston, Grays Harbor counties. Winds 20-30 mph w/ gusts to 50 mph, 7:00 pm to 7:00 am.

Wind warning is up here, too. Coastal areas could see gusts to 90 km/h (55 mph).

[Chewbacca Defense]

28 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

Wind advisory out for southern areas tonight now as well, including Pierce, Thurston, Grays Harbor counties. Winds 20-30 mph w/ gusts to 50 mph, 7:00 pm to 7:00 am.

We've got one up here for the northern areas that's pretty similar.  It is from 4pm to 6am, with 25-35 mph & gusts to 55.  I'm hoping it will take care of the rest of the leaves in our neighborhood.  I've already raked/mowed the leaves once, and it wouldn't hurt my feelings to not do it again.

[Phil]

Worth keeping an eye on: projecting the MJO (superimposed over Niño/IOD LP) forward in time brings up a consistent signal in analog years, with most cases producing a NATL-NE-Canada low/Eurasia ridge dipole by mid-December.

This is a much better pattern for wave driving and increases the odds of developing a -NAO towards the winter solstice.

But while there is some consistency on the NATL side, the NPAC side is all over the place with no decipherable signal in there. The duration of any blocking later in December (and the degree of strat/trop coupling) could hinge on whether or not the NPAC decides to play ball.

Given the -QBO tendency to favor an earlier inception of high latitude blocking during +ENSO, and the consistency in the NATL response in subseasonal analog cases, I do believe a Eurasian ridge will attempt to nose into NAO/NAM domain around the winter solstice (or just after), possibly driving the first legitimate polar airmass of the winter into North America somewhere. Exactly where/when still TBD.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EPS Moses Lake. 850s nice chunk of chilly-cold members for the Columbia Basin. Hoping we see the warm 0c+ members removed over the coming days.

00z GFS in 5 hours 39 minutes

 

[MossMan]

57 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Looks like it could be breezy tonight for some.

I’m almost in the 4th shade of green!! 

[Phil]

 

4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Nor'Easter vibes on Coney Island.

This is an insult to all nor’easters in the history of planet earth and all other planets in all universes in the multiverse.

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I'm starting a go fund me to tear down the Cascades so we can get more snow..... Who's in

I propose we build them higher.

Without the western high terrain there would be no EML to fuel severe weather, and it would probably never snow here again. In fact it would probably end the ice age cycle and throw the NH into another hothouse climate epoch. Talk about a tragedy.

[RentonHill]

That’ll do it

[Snownerd3000]

26 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

I just left whorelando today and told my son it rarely snows in Florida. He said something about it snowing in the mountains there but then I blew his mind telling him our place in Woodinville is higher in elevation than the tallest point in all of Florida. 

[MossMan]

I just ordered new tires for my truck. 
 

BECAUSE IT’S COMING!! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Well at least it's a little colder at times than previous runs.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[SnowySeeker50]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not bad model trends

[MossMan]

31 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Wow! I would most definitely be BBQ’ing the Turkey if that varied as I’m sure that I would be powerless for a week.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wow! I would most definitely be BBQ’ing the Turkey if that varied as I’m sure that I would be powerless for a week.

Though I do have a generator so Thanksgiving dinner and the Seahawks are saved! I momentarily reverted back to the early 80’s when my dad had to BBQ the Turkey due to that major windstorm on Thanksgiving. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Had BBQed turkey for Thanksgiving back in 82 due to a hurricane before we moved to PNW. I was a kid so I thought it was great. Now? Probably not so much.

[ShawniganLake]

Gonna be a wet evening. 0.16” so far. 

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Had BBQed turkey for Thanksgiving back in 82 due to a hurricane before we moved to PNW. I was a kid so I thought it was great. Now? Probably not so much.

It was 11/24/83 here! That was a major happy 7th birthday to me, and was what really got me into the weather! Too bad you didn’t move here a year later, you could have had 2 BBQ’d turkeys in a row! 

[MossMan]

Currently quite breezy! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not bad model trends

Winter uncancel?