November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[MossMan]

Sunrise! Currently 38 after a low of 35. 
And a few pictures from December 2021 for no reason. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Yeah I took this when visiting in July. Basically unlimited visibility. I legitimately felt healthier after just 2 days sleeping with open windows.

If this is actually true, then wtf are you doing on the east coast?  Surely there's a post doc with a preferred/more healthy (for you) climate.

[Deweydog]

12z is live!!

[Phishy Wx]

are the models still turd soup?  not going to waste effort looking until the hype builds back here

[Snownerd3000]

https://twitter.com/wx_washington/status/1726625273226109104?s=20

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

https://twitter.com/wx_washington/status/1726625273226109104?s=20

yup, dry

 

[Snownerd3000]

Smoke season is going to be nuts next year

[MossMan]

27 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

12z is live!!

[MossMan]

22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

are the models still turd soup?  not going to waste effort looking until the hype builds back here

These little guys weren’t rouge yesterday…It’s coming! 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Smoke season is going to be nuts next year

Very little correlation... smoke season depends mostly on spring and summer weather.   If we get periodic rain then it will be fine.   2016-17 was one of the wettest rainy seasons ever and the summer and fall in 2017 was still smokey because it was so hot and dry.   Conversely... 2019 was a very dry year but we had frequent rain during the summer and almost no smoke at all.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we made it down to 31F for our 6th freeze.

[TacomaWx]

Nice sunrise this morning here in Auburn at work. Low of 31 this morning at home. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Very little correlation... smoke season depends mostly on spring and summer weather.   If we get periodic rain then it will be fine.   2016-17 was one of the wettest rainy seasons ever and the summer and fall in 2017 was still smokey because it was so hot and dry.   Conversely... 2019 was a very dry year but we had frequent rain during the summer and almost no smoke at all.  

I agree with you on this one. No way to know right now. CFS shows a dry December, but a wet January and February, so who knows where things will stand even in a few months. 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I agree with you on this one. No way to know right now. CFS shows a dry December, but a wet January and February, so who knows where things will stand even in a few months. 

The drought part isn’t good, but yeah Tim-othy is right about it not necessarily meaning a bad smoke season. 

[Deweydog]

55 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

are the models still turd soup?  not going to waste effort looking until the hype builds back here

Takes me just shy of 45 seconds to scroll through the GFS. Then I think, “where did the day go????”

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Takes me just shy of 45 seconds to scroll through the GFS. Then I think, “where did the day go????”

it's more the depression it brings than the time spent

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS moves towards a wetter pattern later next week.  

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

Picked up 0.81" of rain yesterday, up to 11.27" for the month. Can't say it's seemed abnormally dry this November, more like wet instead of really wet. Got down to 34.8°F overnight. Visible snow on all the mountains this morning.

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[TT-SEA]

SEA is still running about 1.5 inches wetter than normal for November.    Its the last 10 days that might make it drier than normal in the end.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

24 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Picked up 0.81" of rain yesterday, up to 11.27" for the month. Can't say it's seemed abnormally dry this November, more like wet instead of really wet. Got down to 34.8°F overnight. Visible snow on all the mountains this morning.

Holy sh*t, I only have 11.2" on the YEAR

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Holy sh*t, I only have 11.2" on the YEAR

Interesting differences... the climate out here is much warmer in the summer and also much wetter overall.   Although the difference is not usually as extreme as it is this year in terms of precip.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up around 7.5" of rain on the month after the Saturday evening system. Yesterday came in at 44/34. Got down to 30 this morning, extremely slick roads. Thick fog in the valley. Could be a very chilly day if it doesn't burn off. 

As for the long range GFS, some fairly positive trends there. Maybe a move to that zonal flow Phil was talking about. 

[Doinko]

4 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

33.1 with very dense fog. Down in southern CA it's a different story.

Big time winds in southern CA above 1000' roughly. These are all wind gusts 50mph or higher.

 

Yeah, I'm there right now and it's really windy. I'm near Thousand Oaks right now and we have a High Wind Warning.

[Front Ranger]

47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA is still running about 1.5 inches wetter than normal for November.    Its the last 10 days that might make it drier than normal in the end.  

Been a near normal fall for precip across most the PNW. That at least is different than years like 1976, 2002, 1993, 1991, 1987, etc.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Through yesterday it looks like SLE is running a +1.8 departure on the month. Still a little over an inch above normal in the rain fall department, but that will continue to slip. With generally near to slightly below normal weather coming up over the next week the month departure could fall below 1F by early next week. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Been a near normal fall for precip across most the PNW. That at least is different than years like 1976, 2002, 1993, 1991, 1987, etc.

This checks out. When all is said and done this fall will end up with near normal temps (Slightly above), and near normal precip (slightly below). Not really notable at all in either direction. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Been a near normal fall for precip across most the PNW. That at least is different than years like 1976, 2002, 1993, 1991, 1987, etc.

I mean... not really for us northern folk. And has been brutally dry for over a year now.

[Phishy Wx]

16 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I mean... not really for us northern folk. And has been brutally dry for over a year now.

yep, long term is where it actually counts

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Got down to 20 last night and already up to 33 now.

 

Pretty nice sunrise at bachelor, glad to see the area looking more snowy after this last storm, but it's still not enough unfortunately.

[TacomaWx]

17 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Got down to 20 last night and already up to 33 now.

 

Pretty nice sunrise at bachelor, glad to see the area looking more snowy after this last storm, but it's still not enough unfortunately.

Hoping there’s a lot more than that in a few weeks. I am going down to bend for the first time in wintertime. Usually go in August or September so hoping for snow and cold. 

[Winterdog]

Had a low of 29.5 and also went below freezing before midnight for my 8th freeze in a row and 14th so far.  Not earthshaking, but what else is there to track during a boring Nino winter?  Currently 35 with high clouds around.

[FroYoBro]

Got down to 34 last night. Just a little too warm in the banana belt for freezes this past week. Fog is already burning off here and it should be a beautiful, sunny afternoon. 

[ShawniganLake]

20 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

December could be a flop, but I'm still on the fence.  There have been a few periods over the last couple of months that December was looking like a good bet for a Western cold wave.  That is by far the most likely month for a Nino winter to deliver here.

If December has a chance we are going to have to find one of these early in the month. 
 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still only 36 at SLE. 

[the_convergence_zone]

35 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

yep, long term is where it actually counts

Does it? We don't have multi-year reservoir storage like California, so our water supply will soon have forgotten anything that happened last winter. Last year's snowpack doesn't really matter for this year either...other than glaciers, but glaciers mostly care about summer weather.

Maybe I'm missing something? But it doesn't seem like a multiyear drought should be any worse than a single year drought? 

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Does it? We don't have multi-year reservoir storage like California, so our water supply will soon have forgotten anything that happened last winter. Last year's snowpack doesn't really matter for this year either...other than glaciers, but glaciers mostly care about summer weather.

Maybe I'm missing something? But it doesn't seem like a multiyear drought should be any worse than a single year drought? 

I was more referring to the east side.  My source is an aquifer.  Long term is very important.  we also don't have glaciers serving us on this side

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

15 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Does it? We don't have multi-year reservoir storage like California, so our water supply will soon have forgotten anything that happened last winter. Last year's snowpack doesn't really matter for this year either...other than glaciers, but glaciers mostly care about summer weather.

Maybe I'm missing something? But it doesn't seem like a multiyear drought should be any worse than a single year drought? 

Multi year drought stresses/kills trees, single year droughts are tolerated. 

[the_convergence_zone]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I was more referring to the east side.  My source is an aquifer.  Long term is very important.  we also don't have glaciers serving us on this side

Aaah got it. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I mean... not really for us northern folk. And has been brutally dry for over a year now.

The fall overall for the PNW has been near normal. Some places above, some like where you live below. But nothing like the really dry years I mentioned.

Yeah, no doubt it's been a dry year.