November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

57 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Ahhh yes...just what we need. A super warm and sunny April/May to decimate the measly snowpack we do get this winter. Considering last May was more above normal than April was below normal (at least at SEA) maybe we'll get a really troughy and cool May!

Even normal is fine... just don't want winter in April and May.    I doubt that is an unusual opinion. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It got cold a few weeks later! 2013-2014 has not been a discussed along. 

Retro-style retrogression.

[Tanis Leach]

15 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Around 250 feet

You were probably just high enough then (quotes taken out of context was not intended). Snow level seemed to be around 300 feet. With me I got snow because the setup was the correct one where the Chehalem Mountains would see cold air damming but the Coast Range won't (NNE winds). I think your location got a little help from the west hills raise the precip rates just enough. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Retro-style retrogression.

Hopefully we don’t end up that dry this winter. Only thing that doesn’t add up with that analog is it was a neutral winter  

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Hopefully we don’t end up that dry this winter. Only thing that doesn’t add up with that analog is it was a neutral winter  

Feels like a pretty awful analog. But some winters are better for looking back rather than looking forward.

[Winterdog]

33 here but I think it’s gonna cloud up and I won’t see a freeze after midnight putting an end to my streak at eight.

[MossMan]

53 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

10 years ago RIGHT NOW things were about to turn quite ridgy.

I washed vehicles in late November (I miss two of those 4 vehicles) a nice overrunner before Christmas, and a frosty Christmas at the lake! 

Edited November 21, 2023 by MossMan

[AlTahoe]

6 hours ago, Winterdog said:

Wow!  That’s incredible.  You are at 4200 feet and must be in somewhat of a valley giving you some great radiational cooling on top of having the advantage of your central Oregon location.  

We average 223 days with lows below 32F. Our course we are at 6200' in a valley. This year I think we only went like 60 days without a freeze. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS really wants to go zonal in the long range. 

[MossMan]

Temp is skyrocketing…Up to 42 now. 

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS really wants to go zonal in the long range. 

The GraphCast looked pretty zonal on the 12z FWIW.  It was showing a deep trough digging over the NW Pacific as well which could cause the jet to buckle somewhere over the North Pacific a bit down the road.

Looks like a total crap shoot going forward.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MossMan said:

Temp is skyrocketing…Up to 42 now. 

It's going to be weird patch work of temps tonight.  A southerly component to the surface gradient is causing some places to scour out besides the typical east wind warm spots.  I'm holding onto to cold air by my fingernails here so far tonight.  Currently 36.

[GHweatherChris]

I have never really understood the whole weather depression thing, probably never will.  If I wake up tomorrow, it's a good day whether it is sunny or wet. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I have never really understood the whole weather depression thing, probably never will.  If I wake up tomorrow, it's a good day whether it is sunny or wet. 

I think of it like sports. Like if the Jets lose, I’m used to it. But once in a great while, they have a nice season. And Joe Namath was winning the Super Bowl in…January 1969.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I think of it like sports. Like if the Jets lose, I’m used to it. But once in a great while, they have a nice season. And Joe Namath was winning the Super Bowl in…January 1969.

I am very passive when it comes to weather, unless you need to mow the yard anything else in life can still be accomplished no matter what the weather is doing.

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I have never really understood the whole weather depression thing, probably never will.  If I wake up tomorrow, it's a good day whether it is sunny or wet. 

First world problems.

[Anti Marine Layer]

24 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I have never really understood the whole weather depression thing, probably never will.  If I wake up tomorrow, it's a good day whether it is sunny or wet. 

It's hard to mow the lawn when it is raining. 

[GHweatherChris]

13 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

It's hard to mow the lawn when it is raining. 

Already covered that, keep up.

[Meatyorologist]

Got real scenic at Carkeek Park last night.

[FroYoBro]

All the way down to 47 here. 

[Winterdog]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Temp is skyrocketing…Up to 42 now. 

Sitting at 31.9 here with no wind at all.  Had a high of 44.  I'm still expecting the temp to go up before midnight but I might get lucky and keep my streak going.

[snow_wizard]

Dream run on the ECMWF....if you like fake cold.

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Sitting at 31.9 here with no wind at all.  Had a high of 44.  I'm still expecting the temp to go up before midnight but I might get lucky and keep my streak going.

Still holding on here.  The pressure gradients begin to relax late tonight so some places will stay cold.

I wonder if the models will ever be good enough to nail a night like this to perfection.  The ECMWF is on the right track, but is still off on many locations.  It showed no freezing low temps for the Puget Sound region tonight and a few places are already there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Dream run on the ECMWF....if you like fake cold.

I like any cold. 

[snow_wizard]

Most impressive run yet with the upcoming inversion.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I like any cold. 

Same.

We're actually doing fairly good here lately.

[Meatyorologist]

"Fake cold" haha my brother in Christ, inversions are a real weather phenomenon. In fact they are the most primitive and common weather phenomenon we end up experiencing during the winter.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Managed a fairly cool day here, with the milder east wind holding off this evening and mercifully leaving our inversion intact.

Ended up with a 49/34 spread. Morning fog and frost, then sunny skies and light winds. Clouding up a bit now.

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

I have never really understood the whole weather depression thing, probably never will.  If I wake up tomorrow, it's a good day whether it is sunny or wet. 

"Depressing" is very different than depression.   Depression is a medical condition and not something that can be fixed by saying just be happy.   People say certain weather patterns are depressing on here all the time.  What they really mean is that they find it annoying.  That does not mean they are suffering from depression.   Unfortunately, real depression is fairly common and its not something to dismiss.

For me... the thing that I find most annoying is when April and May are really cold and wet.   That is all.   Everyone has preferences and things they like and don't like.   

[TT-SEA]

52 and breezy here this morning.   

Looks like the rain holds off until well after dark and is done by morning.  

[Phil]

The STJ is finally starting to crank. CA may have gotten off to a slow start but that should change next month.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

The STJ is finally starting to crank. CA may have gotten off to a slow start but that should change next month.

 

We lived in CA during the 1997-98 Nino... also a slow start that really ramped up later.   

[TT-SEA]

[Doinko]

9 hours ago, Tanis Leach said:

You were probably just high enough then (quotes taken out of context was not intended). Snow level seemed to be around 300 feet. With me I got snow because the setup was the correct one where the Chehalem Mountains would see cold air damming but the Coast Range won't (NNE winds). I think your location got a little help from the west hills raise the precip rates just enough. 

I don't know if I'm remembering correctly but I think there were some decent accumulations around the Tigard area with some heavier precip?

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS... eastern trough fades later in the run in favor of an AL pattern that appears to be a little too far west to be really wet in the PNW.    Looks like SE Alaska is the line of fire with that pattern.  

[Phishy Wx]

never bought into the 'fake' cold bit.  Hell I never even heard of it until I moved to the PNW and started lurking this board in 2018

[Front Ranger]

19 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

never bought into the 'fake' cold bit.  Hell I never even heard of it until I moved to the PNW and started lurking this board in 2018

It's not a common phenomenon most other places. Most of the country only gets cold when the upper levels are also cold.

[Deweydog]

MAJOR SUNRISE ALERT CLARK COUNTY!

DUCK AND COVER!

[Christensen87]

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

MAJOR SUNRISE ALERT CLARK COUNTY!

DUCK AND COVER!