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DECEMBER 2023 Observations and Discussion


Grizzcoat

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On another more near term note, we topped out at 57 yesterday which is good for a +22 departure from our average high temperature. We had a low of 27 which is +11 from average.

Today, we are already sitting at 47 degrees at 11AM and look to reach up into the 60s.  Feels downright toasty out there!

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

While there is snow on the ground even in the UP there are a lot of bare spots for December 7th

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/walker/

 

I was just looking at a local weather blog and he mentioned how there is a lack of snow cover across central and southern Canada and how if we do get any polar push into the US it will modify dramatically due to the lack of snow cover to keep temps cold 

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1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I was just looking at a local weather blog and he mentioned how there is a lack of snow cover across central and southern Canada and how if we do get any polar push into the US it will modify dramatically due to the lack of snow cover to keep temps cold 

Everything is pointing towards a torch this winter. No doubt about it now unfortunately 

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Next week is almost certain to be warm as well.   Sitting at less than 2" of snow on the season at my house and won't add on much in the next week if at all.  Next hope is the week before Christmas, but doesn't look like winter will invade most of us here anytime soon.   blah

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5 hours ago, mlgamer said:

The weekend system is a big nothing burger here (as it was on Oct 18/19) so I'm still looking at Dec 14-16 for my next weather maker. All of the globals show a system in one form or another affecting the central states around then. This system produced very heavy rains just south and east of me Oct 24/25. It will be interesting to follow model trends in the coming days.

There was 3 pieces of energy with the late October storm, first was hurricane Norma, then a wave swung out of the SW and then finally a storm came into the pacific northwest and rotated through.  The final piece is what could deliver a nice snow if there is cold air available.  12z Euro today I think is on the right path. 

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

There was 3 pieces of energy with the late October storm, first was hurricane Norma, then a wave swung out of the SW and then finally a storm came into the pacific northwest and rotated through.  The final piece is what could deliver a nice snow if there is cold air available.  12z Euro today I think is on the right path. 

Yeah we had quite a few damp days in row then. I don't have the numbers handy, but I think we had measurable rain like 4 out 5 days. That was really good considering how dry the summer and fall had been.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.3" (as of 2/17/24)

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January gonna b rockin

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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32 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

January gonna b rockin

And if not, there's always February.  If that doesn't pan out, then we can't forget about March.  😉

All joking aside, have seen some rumblings about a relatively early shutoff of winter after February so not sure what March/April prospects there will be.  That's so far away though so who knows.

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On the other hand, this is close to something really spectacular on the 12z ECMWF control run at day 15. If that PNW ridge could build a bit further north we'd be in business. 

image.png

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Shocking precip departures in eastern  Iowa for 2023. The worst apparently  west, south and just north of Ottumwa  city where OTM data come from. One thing that shocks me about this data is Davis county south of Ottumwa, the cocorahs observers from around Davis county were  the wettest locations  in Iowa  around march or early April. Just relentless  drought  there  since late April.Thanks to  IEM for the continuous  good info.

Screenshot_20231207_213243_Gallery.jpg

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Well here comes the 00z GFS trying to switch things up a little bit. 

The 500mb height and 850mb temp run-to-run change maps show some pretty decent improvements in the long range. Highers heights over Alaska, which has been seemingly impossible to come by so far this season. Also higher heights over the Labrador Sea and eventually Greenland. A large change also noted over the Canadian Archipelago, with much lower heights and introducing some slightly colder air to work with, especially when compared to the 18z GFS torchfest.

In the end it still doesn't quite get there but at least it's something to keep an eye on to see if it becomes a favorable trend and makes things potentially a little more interesting heading into Christmas.

All maps below are changes vs 18z...

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_dprog-2965600.png

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_dprog-3268000.png

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-t850_c_dprog-2965600.png

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-t850_c_dprog-3289600.png

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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

And if not, there's always February.  If that doesn't pan out, then we can't forget about March.  😉

All joking aside, have seen some rumblings about a relatively early shutoff of winter after February so not sure what March/April prospects there will be.  That's so far away though so who knows.

I unfortunately think March is my best chance for big snow, cuz God knows it never happens in Jan or Feb in my part of the country unless it's a particularly strong clipper.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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We now have 7 days of December 2023 in the record books and with a mean at Grand Rapids of 36.2  it is +2.7° there has been 0.80” of precipitation and with only 0.1” of snowfall the snow drought continues. The high so far this month has been 47 and the low so far is only 30. For the season Grand Rapids only has 2.0” of total snowfall and that is -9.1” and with almost no snow in the forecast we will add to that deficit. The official H/L yesterday was 47/30 there was no rain/snow the sun was out a reported 46% of the possible time. The highest wind gust was 24 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 38/27 the record high of 64 was in 1966 and the record low of 2 was in 2005. The most rain fall of 0.78” fell in 1980 and the most snowfall of 4.5” fell in 1937. The most snow on the ground was 9” in 1909. Last year the H/L was 37/29.

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On this date in SW Michigan

1966: Temperatures reach record highs in the mid 60s only four days after record lows on the single numbers at Grand Rapids. The high of 64 degrees on this date followed the low of 8 degrees on the 4th.

2005: Cold weather prevails during the first half of December with record lows of 2 degrees above zero set at both Grand Rapids and Muskegon on this date.

And in SE Michigan

2006, high temperatures were below freezing including 29 degrees at Detroit and Saginaw, and 27 degrees at Flint. This would be the last day in the month of December 2006 that the temperatures stayed below freezing. This December ranks as the 2nd warmest in Flint history, 3rd warmest for Saginaw, and the 5th warmest for Detroit.

1966, Detroit Metro had a record high of 66 degrees.

 

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The JMA weeklies that came yesterday had an interesting development right around the Holiday period.  The transitional period we are about to enter is showing up in the 0z suite of the modeling.  IMO, we are starting to see the models veer away from the GOA that has plagued Alaska/B.C for the better part of this month and the end of NOV.  The data is starting to show more potential for Higher Heights to develop in the NE PAC/W NAMER. 

For instance, we shall take a peek into the 0z GEFS animation below...

 

11.gif

 

It's not just the GEFS, take a look at the GEPS changes....Change are certainly brewing...

1111.gif

 

The LR forecasting technique that has been pretty solid this season is showing me that by the 22nd (+ or - a couple days), the changes in the GOA will be in the works and retrograde the trough westward.  By Christmas, it should have completely reversed and I fully anticipate a NE PAC ridge (-EPO).  The question will be, where will there be a Festive Miracle?  Who will be lucky to have a White Christmas?  This is where the fun will begin as we track winter storms in a "real winter" pattern.  I got me eye on the "SW to Midwest" connection....the devil is in the details as we move towards the Solstice period through the Holidays. 

temp10anim.gif

 

Final thought, when I see the JMA paint AN precip in the heartland, it gives me some confidence that the LRC is going to deliver.  The 500mb map lines up pretty well with the 0z EPS for Week 2.

Screen Shot 2023-12-08 at 5.50.14 AM.png

 

Screen Shot 2023-12-08 at 5.50.07 AM.png

 

0z EPS...

7.png

 

Week 3-4 leads us into JAN and the New Year of 2024....Ready to Rock n Roll????

 

3.png

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I dunno I've seen this pattern before, not in the weather but with forecasting. And it's that pattern the models and stuff show that in just 10 to 15 days winter will be here, and it keeps getting postponed. I know it's way too early to get pessimistic but this whole thing feels like deja vu.

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I believe pretty firmly that this winter holds off til right at Christmas and then it's full-bore into it after that. 

One characteristic of El Niño of this type is that even in good winters, it's a delayed winter. 

Winters like 2009-10 are an anomaly with just near-perfect delivery time and again. Same with 2013-14. Those are a rarity.

I'd enjoy the warmth while we have it on our side, though. 

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A nice couple of days before a nice rainstorm moves in on Sunday. We should see above normal temperatures through the weekend (normal highs are in the low 40's) in fact by Sunday we could see many spots in the 60's. As warm as that is it is still nowhere near a record high. The record high for Sunday is the 70 degree reading from 1946. We turn seasonably colder for the rest of the upcoming week.
Records for today: High 70 (1980) (RIP John Lennon) / Low 12 (1959) / Rain 1.94" (1978) / Snow 4.7" (1917)
image.png.38c9c7d080e64dbc61904262accbad73.png

DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters.  Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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The 06z GFS did away with the changes I outlined last night in the 00z GFS but the 12z GFS seems to be bringing it back. Look at this 850mb temp run-to-run change vs the 06z. Big time swing to more cold air available in Canada.

It's definitely trying to pick up on some pattern change between days 10-13 but it's not quite latching on yet.

image.png

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3 hours ago, Madtown said:

I know it's early, but we are so far behind. I just don't see anything good out of this winter. We're looking at 2nd week of January before trails open and that might be optimistic. 

I sas hoping to go snowmobiling up in Eagle River the first week in January. Really starting to doubt if it's going to happen...

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6 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Eric Snodgrass Dec. 8th. 

 

Very interesting stuff, I'll be keeping an eye out for that jet streak into the Pacific starting in about 10 days, if we see evidence of that continuing to happen, then we will hopefully have our signal of a pattern change coming up. 

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23 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

But where will the cold drain south?  North America, Asia or Europe?

Asia is getting the extreme cold right now, it is projected to move towards Alaska before setting up for somewhere in the CONUS

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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