DECEMBER 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

A very strong, dynamic storm to keep an eye on over the next several days for this upcoming weekend. One thing is for sure, ample amounts of moisture will be available w/ this storm and whoever is blessed to be on the cold side of this, then, look-out!! As of now, my area looks to be on the warm side, so rain is looking to be the main precip type, but again, way to early. Anything can and could change for a lot of us members on here. I'd wait till Thursday or Friday at the latest., especially as the upper level wave is expected to arrive onshore, by that time period so, better sampling would be available. Happy tracking!

[Iceresistance]

What is that Euro Run?

[tStacsh]

14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

You posted b4 that you like your winter in NDJ, so sitting on Dec 5th means that mentally anyways we are approaching the middle of your winter window and it looks very bleak. I don't know how a back-loaded winter could be anything but misery in that way of thinking. 

We are now firmly in the traditional "winter cancel" period which is the general mood/mode especially when you consider that (7) Dec's of the past (10) were BN if not well BN (borderline non-existent 2014). The only (3) good ones for me were 2013 (AN) and 2016 & 17 (MAN). 

When I add up all (10) Dec's I find the resulting average is not very far off the long-term average, it has just been extremely lop-sided one way or the other. (To use non-scientific terms)

Fair,  I really enjoy winter around the holiday seasons.  I'm a golfer and by February I'm just ready for spring.  I want a true winter in December!!!   But in reality it's just not "normal" to have JF type weather in December.  Sure it happens, but few and far between. 

However, if we can keep the lake warm, I'll once again be able to enjoy some LES later into the season when cold eventually hits.  Which is becoming more frequent for our snow totals.   

 

[hawkstwelve]

Man, the drunk uncle is letting us down with the eye candy for once. Lame.

[Hoosier]

With 0.3" snowfall today, ORD has reached 3.0" for the season.

Although today is only December 5, I decided to take a look at seasons that reached 3.0" by December 10 for Chicago.  Before this year, it happened a total of 73 times.  67 out of 73 seasons (91.8%) ended up finishing with at least 25" snowfall.  73 out of 73 seasons finished with over 20".

A lackluster snowfall season is certainly within the realm of possibility.  However, if the past is any indication, then a historically bad (say, worst 10) snowfall season is extremely unlikely to occur.

[Hoosier]

53 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

With 0.3" snowfall today, ORD has reached 3.0" for the season.

Although today is only December 5, I decided to take a look at seasons that reached 3.0" by December 10.  Before this year, it happened a total of 73 times.  67 out of 73 seasons (91.8%) ended up finishing with at least 25" snowfall.  73 out of 73 seasons finished with over 20".

A lackluster snowfall season is certainly within the realm of possibility.  However, if the past is any indication, then a historically bad (say, worst 10) snowfall season is extremely unlikely to occur.

To add a bit more...

5 out of 8 strong Ninos since 1950 produced at least 3" of snow by Dec 10.  Here is where all 8 years stood on Dec 10 and what the final totals were.

 

thru 12/10/1957:  2.8" ;  final total:  20.0"

thru 12/10/1965:  T ;  final total:  24.9"

thru 12/10/1972:  12.0" ;  final total:  32.9"

thru 12/10/1982:  0.8" ;  final total:  26.6"

thru 12/10/1991:  7.5" ;  final total:  28.4"

thru 12/10/1997:  6.4" ;  final total:  29.6"

thru 12/10/2009:  6.5" ;  final total:  54.2"

thru 12/10/2015:  12.5" ;  final total:  31.2"

[mlgamer]

Looking at a 51-52 day LRC and the next couple of systems (both match up nicely at 500mb)...

1) I don't think this weekend system (Dec 8/9) will amount to anything significant for my area including KC. All of the QPF was generally north and east of me when this system came through Oct 18/19 similar as shown on today's 18z GFS. We'll see.

2) I think my next weather maker will be next week around Dec 15/16 (and maybe just a rainer?). This system brought the very heavy rains Oct 24/25 just to the south and east of me. The 12z Euro seems to be nicely picking up on this next system moving in at 240 hrs:

[Clinton]

12 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Looking at a 51-52 day LRC and the next couple of systems (both match up nicely at 500mb)...

1) I don't think this weekend system (Dec 8/9) will amount to anything significant for my area including KC. All of the QPF was generally north and east of me when this system came through Oct 18/19 similar as shown on today's 18z GFS. We'll see.

2) I think my next weather maker will be next week around Dec 15/16 (and maybe just a rainer?). This system brought the very heavy rains Oct 24/25 just to the south and east of me. The 12z Euro seems to be nicely picking up on this next system moving in at 240 hrs:

The strong storm you mention on the 18th and 19th should also bring down the artic air.  The 18z GFS shows this well also though it cuts the storm hard which is probably an error.

[jaster220]

Never hard on the eyes..

Quote

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Watching winter storm potential for the weekend.

 

[Clinton]

Warm and windy finish to the week with maybe a little rain Friday night.

[Tom]

PHX tied a record high of 82F yesterday...Today, we may set a NEW Record high of 82F!....Correction, we won't see a record high because it is 83F.  I'll be honest, it did feel rather beautiful yesterday and today will be another stunning Winter day!  You can find me at the pool later today....

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at GR was 38/32 there was 0.01” of precipitation with a trace of snow. There was just 1% of possible sunshine. GR is now -8.0” below where it should be in the snowfall department. For today the average H/L is 39/27 the record high of 63 was set in 1951 and the record low of 0 was set in 1964. The wettest was in 1966 with 0.96” the most snow fall of 7” fell in 1919 the most on the ground was 10” in 1991. Last year the H/L was 42/36 and there was a trace of rainfall.

 

[westMJim]

Weather history for December 6 in southerner Lower Michigan.

1958: Arctic air settles into Lower Michigan during one of the coldest December on record. High temperatures are only in the teens on this date. More than two feet of lake effect snow piles up at Muskegon during the first half of the month.

1998, the temperature rose to 69 degrees in Detroit. This set the record for the maximum temperature for the month of December in Detroit. This was followed by severe thunderstorms and wind damage across Southeast Michigan. The majority of the severe weather occurred near or south of Interstate 69. The most notable exception to this was a swath of wind damage across southern Sanilac County, from Marlette to Lexington. Barns and silos were destroyed near Marlette, and a home was deroofed.

Some USA weather history

1913 A snowstorm from December 1st through the 6th dumps a record total of 45.7 inches in Denver, Colorado. This storm produced the most snow ever recorded in a single Denver snowstorm.

1970 The National Christmas tree in 1970 was a 78-foot spruce from South Dakota. On the way to Washington, the train carrying the tree derailed twice in Nebraska. On the weekend before the lighting event, the tree toppled in gusty winds and required new branches to fill it out.

 

[jaster220]

Cold dome just NE of The Mitt again this morning is most certainly a recurring theme so far:

I feel that ultimately will end up helping New England and the EC at some point. It seems ill-timed to and a "miss" as to its benefits for this region. We get a colder morning or two (vs SWMI) and not much else. 

[WinterSquall23]

Snowing hard this morning.  Pretty cool!   Like someone shook a pillow snow flakes!  

[gimmesnow]

16 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Man, the drunk uncle is letting us down with the eye candy for once. Lame.

this is probably the most promising sign we will get some snow in SE Wisconsin, lol

[chescowxman]

A few snow flurries are flying this AM across spots of the county. Mostly cloudy the rest of today with maybe some more snow showers tomorrow AM. Temperatures both today and Thursday will struggle to escape the 30's. We start warming by Friday with above normal temps through the weekend with rain likely by Sunday before a return to colder again by next week.

Records for today: High 73 (1998) / Low 8 (1902) / Rain 1.47" (2013) / Snow 6.7" (1910)

[bud2380]

6z GFS at 168 hours vs. 12 GFS at 168 hours.  Whatever is happening with this pattern right now has the models totally baffled.  It's gonna be hard to trust anything beyond 72 hours until things clear up.

 

 

[Hoosier]

27 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

6z GFS at 168 hours vs. 12 GFS at 168 hours.  Whatever is happening with this pattern right now has the models totally baffled.  It's gonna be hard to trust anything beyond 72 hours until things clear up.

 

 

Couldn't help but wonder.... with the "storm" this weekend and now what you posted above, are we going to be dealing with these massive model shenanigans all winter.  Hope not.

[CentralNebWeather]

Eric Snodgrass video from this morning. Not a lot of good news for snow and cold lovers. 

 

[Beltrami Island]

I have  some dread seeing this.  It looks very much like 2011-12 to me.  Great for snow if you are in S/SE Alaska... Pretty much everywhere else not so good for snow. 

[Hoosier]

We've already seen some model teases in this young season and while a wintry threat can't be ruled out in the next week or two, I'd probably punt until after the 20th for the most part.  Doesn't mean it will torch every day, but snow chances are looking limited.  Hopefully we'll be getting into a more favorable pattern after the 20th.  As far as white Christmas chances, may depend on what happens in the last few days before Christmas.  Last year managed to deliver some snow just in time for many of us... hopefully we can get that again this year.

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Beltrami Island said:

I have  some dread seeing this.  It looks very much like 2011-12 to me.  Great for snow if you are in S/SE Alaska... Pretty much everywhere else not so good for snow. 

Except that 2011-2012 was a La Nina and this is an El Nino?

[Beltrami Island]

28 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Except that 2011-2012 was a La Nina and this is an El Nino?

Oh, don't get me started on that year. It was a La Nina, but acted like El Nino. 

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Oh, don't get me started on that year. It was a La Nina, but acted like El Nino. 

2011-2012 was HORRID even for me, it was a super torch. It was a Super La Nina.

[Minny_Weather]

57 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Except that 2011-2012 was a La Nina and this is an El Nino?

Everyone knows that ENSO is only part of the equation and it's easy for it to be overriden. Look at Southern California's record-breaking precip last winter, in a La Niña year.

[Iceresistance]

23 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

Everyone knows that ENSO is only part of the equation and it's easy for it to be overriden. Look at Southern California's record-breaking precip last winter, in a La Niña year.

2011-2012 truly acted like a La Nina for me, moisture was poor.

[Tom]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

PHX tied a record high of 82F yesterday...Today, we may set a NEW Record high of 82F!....Correction, we won't see a record high because it is 83F.  I'll be honest, it did feel rather beautiful yesterday and today will be another stunning Winter day!  You can find me at the pool later today....

Wow, to my surprise...we torched today and set a new record high of 84F!  

[jaster220]

Last in a train of minor systems bringing some snow returns across parts of the state this evening. Not sure how much is making it to the ground. Reports of a couple of inches in the UP earlier. 

[Iceresistance]

SSW ongoing right now!

[chescowxman]

Snow is starting to move into the County from the NW this morning. With the temperatures below freezing we could see some slick spots on area roads - be careful. Most spots will see at most about a half an inch of snow. We start a nice warmup tomorrow through the weekend...it should be dry tomorrow and Saturday before rain moves in on Sunday. Much colder again for next week.

Records for today: High 75 (1998) / Low 1 (1926) / Rain 2.04" (1914) / Snow 8.0" (1959)

[Timmy Supercell]

Yesterday was nippy! Starting today is another brief warm up and maybe even a rumbler this Saturday.

Had 44 yesterday with a morning low of 37 (cooled to 28 at 11pm). Stayed 28 most of this morning up till sunrise.

[westMJim]

When I was younger today was always a day of reflection and was known as Pearl Harbor Day. Just something to think about the next time we have a “day” the will go down in history that the day will become blurred as time goes by.

The official H/L yesterday was 40/33 there was a trace of rain/snow. There was just 8% of possible sunshine. The highest wind was 25MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 39/27 the record high of 62 was set in 1946 the record low of -4 was set in 1972. The most snowfall of 7.7” fell in 1909. The most snow on the ground was 8” in 1919, 1910 and 1909. Last year the H/L was 46/31.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for southern Lower Michigan.

1909: A snowstorm drops from 5 to 8 inches of snow across southwest Lower Michigan.

1972: Record-cold weather prevails across southwest Lower Michigan with high temperatures only in the mid-teens and morning lows below zero.

1951, the temperature rose to 62 degrees in Detroit, which is 23 degrees above average!

 

[Hawkeye]

Today and tomorrow I can finally get all my winter prep completed as we rise to the 50s.  My garage is currently full of bags of leaves, flower pots, rabbit fencing, etc.  It all has to be mulched, put away, etc.

[chescowxman]

[jaster220]

Frost Advisory in FL this morning. Yep, living the Nino life in early December

[gimmesnow]

Not much snowmaking weather in the 10 day forecast, or GFS, after this big warm up and rain.

[mlgamer]

The weekend system is a big nothing burger here (as it was on Oct 18/19) so I'm still looking at Dec 14-16 for my next weather maker. All of the globals show a system in one form or another affecting the central states around then. This system produced very heavy rains just south and east of me Oct 24/25. It will be interesting to follow model trends in the coming days.

[hawkstwelve]

GraphCast skill score update vs GFS and Euro. Notice around the start of December, the same date I posted a gif of what the GraphCast was forecasting for this upcoming system and how it differed from the other deterministic models, it's 500mb skill score stayed above 90% while the GFS and Euro took a sharp hit below that marker. This was probably why the GraphCast's solution, while not 100% accurate, most closely modeled what is looking like will ultimately occur. 

I wish there was some licensing in place for that model so that it could be used by other organizations who could provide more user friendly graphics and interfaces to better evaluate that model. Hopefully that will happen soon. At least it's available to the public in some form so we can utilize it to a certain degree and better compare it's differences to what the GFS/Euro shows.