December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Phil]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Looks even worse from this angle.

That’s as +AO as it gets. Reminiscent of 1991/92.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s as +AO as it gets. Reminiscent of 1991/92.

Greenland hogging all the cold air.

[Phil]

The global temperature anomaly if that 12z Euro run verifies.

[Phil]

Bow of respect to Paul Roundy.

On 11/29/2023 at 7:53 PM, Phil said:

Hard to disagree with this. Definitely the favored outcome following the -WPO response.

 

 

[Phil]

Funny, the low frequency state this winter is probably as perfect an opposite to 22/23 as is physically possible.

Essentially every variable that matters in reversed. Right down to the subseasonal variability.

[Omegaraptor]

22 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Looks even worse from this angle.

Plenty of cold for Rocket Man Kim

[SilverFallsAndrew]

34 minutes ago, Phil said:

There actually is a point to be made there.

In theory. Or just hypothetically. Something like that.

Why we crash back to a moderate nina by next summer according to some models. 

Edited December 12, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

28 years ago RIGHT NOW barometers were dropping RAPIDLY and schools were preemptively CLOSED.

That one was quite fun! My dad and I sat in the garage that night watching the night sky being constantly lit up by the glow of power line fuses popping all over the area! That was a 3 day outage. 

[RentonHill]

[Slushy Inch]

11 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Let’s not talk about what it looks like before this frame. Even this is a breath of fresh air 

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Why we crash back to a moderate nina by next summer according to some models. 

It’s arguable that a cooling of the extratropical oceans would be less favorable for La Niña. Best thing going for a Niña next winter is the QBO and the general structure of this Niño.

But having just left a 3 year niña, the primal support from IO/WP and other subtropical components may be hard pressed to support it (not to mention the up coming WP extension, should be any year now).

That’s why every previous 3-year niña or even just -ENSO has been followed by a 5-10 year period of overall +ENSO dominance (though not constantly, of course). The 83/84 - 85/86 stretch had a big La Niña follow 3yrs later (88/89) but it was a single year event, sandwiched in a sea of neutral/positive ENSO. And that’s the only exception in at least the last century.

The shorter term fundamentals may support a La Niña transition, but I believe the inertial, lower frequency components of the system state will either prevent it or water it down significantly.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

West Coast Cold Finger. 

lol except E WA

[FroYoBro]

The east wind is ramping up quickly today. Makes it feel chilly even though it’s still above 50. 

[Phil]

Crazy that this is almost purely STJ, northern stream is AWOL.

 

[RentonHill]

Oof big move up in the long range. Oh well. 

 

[GobBluth]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Crazy that this is almost purely STJ, northern stream is AWOL.

 

The northern stream is pinwheeling around itself in Siberia.

[umadbro]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Oof big move up in the long range. Oh well. 

 

Well it was fun while it lasted.

[Deweydog]

Brrrrrrrreezy!

[TT-SEA]

Sunny and 50 here... light east wind continues.

SEA is still socked in and 40.   Parts of the Kent Valley haven't seen much sun for weeks.   They were perpetually foggy during the last dry spell and then we had 10 days of rain and are now fogged in again when it dries out.    

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

The northern stream is pinwheeling around itself in Siberia.

EPS mean zonal wind. Just nutty.

[TT-SEA]

Seattle has mostly cleared out now.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

EPS mean zonal wind. Just nutty.

Based on past experience... that is pretty boring up here.   Occasionally we get a dying front moving up from the south into WA but its generally dry with offshore flow dominating.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Based on past experience... that is pretty boring up here.   Occasionally we get a dying front moving up from the south into WA but its generally dry with offshore flow dominating.

Jesse out in Stevenson might do well at times with trapped surface level cold.

[Snownerd3000]

This Christmas, everybody torches.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

This Christmas, everybody torches.

I just hope it’s not as awful as 2015 was out here.

~ 70°F with fog at 3AM on Christmas Eve. Satanic. 

[SnowySeeker50]

[TT-SEA]

East wind doing its thing.

[Phil]

I have all the Tahoe live cams bookmarked still. Anticipate I will be spending a significant amount of time watching them over the next month.

[the_convergence_zone]

36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seattle has mostly cleared out now.

Another day of perfect running weather. This climate really keeps me in shape when I can exercise outdoors for like 50 of the 52 weeks in the year. 

[MossMan]

I was above the layer this morning, I-5 was not (I was about a quarter mile from the freeway here) 

[Phil]

https://x.com/griteater/status/1734678608931951075?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[Cascadia_Wx]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen so much manic excitement over a turd winter pattern here before.

[RentonHill]

EPS weeklies actually show a small turning of the wurm after new year. maybe? 

 

[Cold Snap]

3 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

First Feb 2019 event. Winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches I think was the forecast.

Yeah that event overperformed quite well. The WWA got upgraded to a WSW midway through that event. I ended up with 7 inches.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHill said:

EPS weeklies actually show a small turning of the wurm after new year. maybe? 

 

About dern time. 

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Just when I thought the Euro run couldn’t get worse.

Literally nothing interesting for the entire country. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

About dern time. 

Only 4 weeks of model poo to wade through until then! yay!

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, RentonHill said:

at least this is the ocean releasing all of the excess heat into the atmosphere right??? and now SSTs will normalize??

Don't forget Tonga!!

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Literally nothing cold for the entire country. 

Fixed 

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Only 4 weeks of model poo to wade through until then! yay!

And real-time poo, like today!