December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEM and 00Z GFS are very similar at day 10.   It might actually be coming.   

 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Ridge is suspect and no real bitter cold to tap into…

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Ridge is suspect and no real bitter cold to tap into…

Pretty nice mix of cold and moisture though.  Nice looking run as far as I'm concerned.  We've had some nice snows with no REALLY cold air to work with.  At any rate that is still to be worked out.

Why is the ridge suspect?  Every run of every model has shown some kind of ridging over the GOA next week.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

I’m in the blue!

By the way, it's coming.

https://starwalk.space/en/news/visible-comet-2024

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty nice mix of cold and moisture though.  Nice looking run as far as I'm concerned.  We've had some nice snows with no REALLY cold air to work with.  At any rate that is still to be worked out.

Why is the ridge suspect?  Every run of every model has shown some kind of ridging over the GOA next week.

Suspect amplitude and strength possibly.

[snow_wizard]

Kind of interesting that one of the analogs on the 18z GFS was from Jan 1963.  One of the all time great nationwide cold waves on record.  This run is quite cold for a lot of places as well.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Suspect amplitude and strength possibly.

If the ridge can solidly lock into that area of high latitude blocking this could get pretty wild.  Even this run would make a lot of people happy on here.  Especially being January.

[MossMan]

I have heard the phrase “no real cold to work with” a few times over the last several years when about 10 days out from what turned out to be very nice events. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks to me like the GFS surface temperature maps are too high given the 500mb pattern and surface pressure arrangement.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have heard the phrase “no real cold to work with” a few times over the last several years when about 10 days out from what turned out to be very nice events. 

Indeed.  That is such a fine line anyway.  Just a little tweak can mean the difference between lows of 30 and lows below 20.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Rain for Eugene and Andrew gets warm-nosed!

Yup 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Indeed.  That is such a fine line anyway.  Just a little tweak can mean the difference between lows of 30 and lows below 20.

35 and cold rain or 30 and sticking snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Randy and Tim could do well coming up. Down here will be borderline at 1600’, so not a lot of valley potential. 

[snow_wizard]

I'm just thrilled we have a legit shot at something worthwhile in January with a strong Nino going.  I still think there's a 20% chance or so this ends up being a really big deal.  Probably 70%+ we at least get some solidly below normal temps.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Randy and Tim could do well coming up. Down here will be borderline at 1600’, so not a lot of valley potential. 

Wee bit early to be predicting snow levels.  

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of interesting that one of the analogs on the 18z GFS was from Jan 1963.  One of the all time great nationwide cold waves on record.  This run is quite cold for a lot of places as well.

DEN had a -9/-25 day with that. Coldest day in airport history.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

It’s starting to show up on the Euro, too.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Any skepticism I have regarding ridging is the strong El Nino we're currently in. That's about it.

 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Any skepticism I have regarding ridging is the strong El Nino we're currently in. That's about it.

 

I’ve just been telling myself. The average snow during El Niño isn’t 0.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

I’ve just been telling myself. The average snow during El Niño isn’t 0.

Even dice loaded against the player sometimes come up favorable.

[Slushy Inch]

This is a new one. Ridge circle around Canada.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I’ve just been telling myself. The average snow during El Niño isn’t 0.

You do have the fact Sea-Tac's snowiest winter was 1968-69.  An El Nino winter.  The epically cold Jan 1930 was also a Nino.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

This is a new one. Ridge circle around Canada.

That high latitude piece is the real wild card.  It could come together in a very cold way for us.

[Phishy Wx]

not buying it (yet)

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

not buying it (yet)

Nor am I. But neither am I buying a winter that’s a total bust.

If it happens, it will most likely be a brief cold and snowy interlude in what is otherwise mostly a winter of El Niño torching.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That high latitude piece is the real wild card.  It could come together in a very cold way for us.

Except this is 15 days out

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Don’t get me wrong. There is potential. 

[Slushy Inch]

GEPS was quite good! Way better than last run. End is similar to GFS op end…

[SnowWillarrive]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You do have the fact Sea-Tac's snowiest winter was 1968-69.  An El Nino winter.  The epically cold Jan 1930 was also a Nino.

I had no clue 68/69 was a Nino. I would do anything to experience that type of winter. 

[westcoastexpat]

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, RentonHill said:

 

Chris has always struck me as a vest guy.

Extra points and lowland snow credits to those who can ID Sea Bass’ PNW connection sans internet help.

 

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Except this is 15 days out

More like a week.

[SpaceRace22]

Sorry if I missed this being mentioned earlier, but the 00z GEM has such a wacky look to it. Some seriously bitter cold makes it well into the Great Basin, while basically skipping everywhere to the north. Nevada has -22C 850mb temps while Calgary, AB has 850s above 0. Not often that the coldest spot in the nation *by far* is in central Nevada. This results in temperature anomalies of nearly -40F, which is... absurd. Has to be one of the most extreme model solutions in one specific area that I've seen.

 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

More like a week.

That frame was hour 378

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the Nino is going to take a big hit with a big trade wind burst coming up.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

That frame was hour 378

The tie in to the high latitude block tries to happen way before that though.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I had no clue 68/69 was a Nino. I would do anything to experience that type of winter. 

I recently found out SSWs were the reason that winter worked out.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I recently found out SSWs were the reason that winter worked out.

 

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The tie in to the high latitude block tries to happen way before that though.

I see what you mean