December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

From a flooding perspective... the 00Z ECMWF rainfall totals through Wednesday morning do not look like something that would be a top 10 flood event in the Snoqualmie Valley.    That usually requires 5-10 inches of rain in the mountains over a short period.   3.7 inches at the pass over 2 days is not extreme. 

[Cold Snap]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well this is not good.   The Snoqualmie Falls chart only shows low end moderate flooding but I know the flooding scenarios farther downstream are different than at the falls.   

Yeah from what I’ve experienced it’s almost always worse down here than up at the falls. Most of the time when it’s expected to be only moderate flooding up there it’s major flooding down here.

[Cold Snap]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

From a flooding perspective... the 00Z ECMWF rainfall totals through Wednesday morning do not look like something that would be a top 10 flood event in the Snoqualmie Valley.    That usually requires 5-10 inches of rain in the mountains over a short period.

Yeah I was surprised they were going for a top 10 flood event out of this. Maybe they are projecting a lot of that snow to melt and fill the river.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[the_convergence_zone]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well this is not good.   The Snoqualmie Falls chart only shows low end moderate flooding but I know the flooding scenarios farther downstream are different than at the falls.   

Those river forecasts are not easy to make. It feels high to me given the lack of snowpack and precip numbers that we’ve seen plenty of times before, but you never know, it’s certainly within the realm of possibility. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Yeah I was surprised they were going for a top 10 flood event out of this. Maybe they are projecting a lot of that snow to melt and fill the river.

There isn't that much snow up there.   I don't know... maybe the chart is way too aggressive with flooding potential and it will start to trend down once the event starts.   But other times I have been skeptical of those charts and they ended up being right or even too low.   From a big picture perspective this just doesn't seem like a major flooding set up based on gut feeling.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

5 Day Rainfall totals (ending 4 PM Friday)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 another very active pattern potentially long range.

[Gradient Keeper]

A ton of rain this run.

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Tri cities is the worse. 

I agree. I think it's worse than Tacoma /Fife because you all still have  moisture whereas Tri Cities is super rain shadowed. Depending how much they have.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Yikes .......

[Skagit Weather]

The Euro over the last day has trended significantly drier for this upcoming week up here. Went from close to 5" to less than 2". I guess the mountains still look to get a decent amount of precipitation, but I agree with others that I can't imagine the river forecasts showing major flooding actually verifying based on the amount of precip currently forecast.

[Kolk1604]

42 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

A ton of rain this run.

Warm too unfortunately

[Gradient Keeper]

9 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Warm too unfortunately

Yeah straight pineapples and mangos this run.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Smoking outside in a t shirt and shorts. 54F with moderate rain.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF Day 9'er to 10. Yet another major AR taking aim at the Northwest.

[Ken in Wood Village]

This beauty means business 🌬🌧

[TacomaWx]

Got up here to the raging river at 4am to prepare for the storm. Will probably be here until sometime Tuesday or Wednesday. This Storm isn’t exactly an October 2003 event but it’ll be a big one still and a lot of water will need to be treated.
 Has already been a crazy start to the day…saw a car on fire on 167 in Auburn this morning on the way here. Then a few minutes after I got here to the jobsite a car crashed and rolled over into the jobsite entrance. Few of us went to see if she was ok and she was able to get out on her own thank god. I’m surprised she wasn’t severely injured or killed. 

[Phil]

Clown range GFS back to a pro-PV, Siberian-ridge pattern. Would virtually guarantee an “uninteresting” pattern evolution (typical niño progression, 2015/16 like) as we’d continue the shallow/fast MJO regime (less distinction w/rt Niño/LP).

I’m okay taking my chances with that, but am sure 80% of the country (including most this forum) wouldn’t be so happy.

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Got up here to the raging river at 4am to prepare for the storm. Will probably be here until sometime Tuesday or Wednesday. This Storm isn’t exactly an October 2003 event but it’ll be a big one still and a lot of water will need to be treated.
 Has already been a crazy start to the day…saw a car on fire on 167 in Auburn this morning on the way here. Then a few minutes after I got here to the jobsite a car crashed and rolled over into the jobsite entrance. Few of us went to see if she was ok and she was able to get out on her own thank god. I’m surprised she wasn’t severely injured or killed. 

Wow, stay safe!

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Got up here to the raging river at 4am to prepare for the storm. Will probably be here until sometime Tuesday or Wednesday. This Storm isn’t exactly an October 2003 event but it’ll be a big one still and a lot of water will need to be treated.
 Has already been a crazy start to the day…saw a car on fire on 167 in Auburn this morning on the way here. Then a few minutes after I got here to the jobsite a car crashed and rolled over into the jobsite entrance. Few of us went to see if she was ok and she was able to get out on her own thank god. I’m surprised she wasn’t severely injured or killed. 

You gotta wear hip waders out there or something?? 

[TacomaWx]

27 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

You gotta wear hip waders out there or something?? 

Full set of grundens rain gear and I have some hip waders if I need em 

[MossMan]

Just starting to rain. 
44 degrees. 

[ShawniganLake]

43F. 0.04” of rain this morning.  It’s gonna be very wet later. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another 0.19" of rain overnight. Very mild morning. Currently 57 in Salem. 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

Clown range GFS back to a pro-PV, Siberian-ridge pattern. Would virtually guarantee an “uninteresting” pattern evolution (typical niño progression, 2015/16 like) as we’d continue the shallow/fast MJO regime (less distinction w/rt Niño/LP).

I’m okay taking my chances with that, but am sure 80% of the country (including most this forum) wouldn’t be so happy.

12z is better.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some of these model runs are pretty darn lame. 

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some of these model runs are pretty darn lame. 

Euro weeklies have been so boring. La Niña and neutral please come back! Abolish El Niño 

[Norwood]

Drove over Willamette Pass last night, it was 45 and pouring rain. Made the drive easier without snow, but the rivers of water in the chain ruts was kinda sketchy when driving. Bly mountain was nice a few days ago though. 

[SnowWillarrive]

Defund El Niño 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Norwood said:

Drove over Willamette Pass last night, it was 45 and pouring rain. Made the drive easier without snow, but the rivers of water in the chain ruts was kinda sketchy when driving. Bly mountain was nice a few days ago though. 

I need to get back to S. Central Oregon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Euro weeklies have been so boring. La Niña and neutral please come back! Abolish El Niño 

The 2002 vibes are definitely in play. 

[RentonHill]

Sasaki splitter on the 12z gfs. @Phil although the 500mb pattern doesn't look like the right wave pattern you keep talking about as best for PV destruct

 

[High Desert Mat?]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

Clown range GFS back to a pro-PV, Siberian-ridge pattern. Would virtually guarantee an “uninteresting” pattern evolution (typical niño progression, 2015/16 like) as we’d continue the shallow/fast MJO regime (less distinction w/rt Niño/LP).

I’m okay taking my chances with that, but am sure 80% of the country (including most this forum) wouldn’t be so happy.

So it’s not showing the SSW anymore in the long range?

[RentonHill]

Just now, High Desert Mat? said:

So it’s not showing the SSW anymore in the long range?

12z brought it back...gotta keep up bro!!!