January 2024 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

Some weather history for southern lower Michigan for January 24th

1967: A huge storm is gathering over the Plains States. Out ahead of it, strong southerly breezes bring record warmth to Lower Michigan. Lansing soars to 66 degrees, the warmest on record for the month of January.

1963, Detroit had a high temperature of 4 degrees and a low temperature of -13 degrees, which equates to a very cold day!

Across the USA 

1940: A record-breaking 19.9 inches of snow fell in Richmond, Virginia, on this day. The storm, which began on the 23rd, produced 21.6 inches of snow in the Richmond area. The headline in the Richmond Times-Dispatch was “Blizzard Sweeps State, Bringing Deep Snow; Public Schools Closed.

1967: A tornado outbreak across the Central U.S. was the furthest north ever recorded in the winter up to that time. Severe weather occurred across a good portion of the southeast and east-central Iowa. Two-inch hail fell at Armstrong, and over two dozen tornadoes were reported. Five miles north of Fort Madison, one fatality occurred from a tornado, along with six injuries. A tornado causing F4 damage killed 3 people and injured 216 in St. Louis County, Missouri. Storms also affected parts of northern and central Illinois. One strong tornado in Mason County killed one person and injured three others. Another tornado moved across the Champaign-Urbana metropolitan area, injuring five people. Other strong tornadoes were reported across Carroll County in Mt. Carroll, where 12 people were injured, and near Gladstone in Henderson County. Funnel clouds were reported across the southwest section of Chicago, IL. Iowa had never recorded a tornado in January before this outbreak. 32 total tornadoes occurred, 14 of them in Iowa. Nine twisters occurred in Missouri, 8 in Illinois, and 1 in Wisconsin. 

 

[Wheezer]

I think it all depends on the MJO getting into and through the cold phases , when and how long the cold returns and lasts , for the lower 48.  It took the MJO going through three of the cold phases at moderate strength and proper lag time ,  to see our departing cold period .  

[Clinton]

Cloudy and damp for the rest of the week. I could push 60 though next week before the cold returns. 

[Tom]

It's amazing how much of the central CONUS is under a Dense Fog Advisory...is Nature saying something for Mid Feb and beyond???  If you look closely, it sorta resmebles where the LRC storm track has been and also where the snow/Ice has fallen that last 4 weeks.

 

 

[Tom]

So, I hear Phase 7 MJO in El Nino Feb's are golden...if this is true, then there is model consensus we will enter a favorable pattern to open up FEB...

[Wheezer]

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, Wheezer said:

I think that is in a general ENSO base state and not during an El Nino...Bastardi posted something regarding this on his Blog.  Maybe someone else can chime in and provide feedback.

[chescowxman]

A foggy day with the melting snow cover across the area. Some light rain or drizzle today with some steadier rains tonight through tomorrow night. Temps will actually rise through tonight and stay mild through Friday with temps possibly touching 60 degrees on Friday. Much chiller air will filter back into the area with more rain that may change to or end as some snow or ice by the end of the weekend.
Records for today: High 72 (1967) / Low 4 below (1930) / Rain 2.76" (1979) / Snow 3.7" (2015)

[Wheezer]

Phases 7 and 8 during + ENSO

 

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, westMJim said:

 

Across the USA 

1967: A tornado outbreak across the Central U.S. was the furthest north ever recorded in the winter up to that time. Severe weather occurred across a good portion of the southeast and east-central Iowa. Two-inch hail fell at Armstrong, and over two dozen tornadoes were reported. Five miles north of Fort Madison, one fatality occurred from a tornado, along with six injuries. A tornado causing F4 damage killed 3 people and injured 216 in St. Louis County, Missouri. Storms also affected parts of northern and central Illinois. One strong tornado in Mason County killed one person and injured three others. Another tornado moved across the Champaign-Urbana metropolitan area, injuring five people. Other strong tornadoes were reported across Carroll County in Mt. Carroll, where 12 people were injured, and near Gladstone in Henderson County. Funnel clouds were reported across the southwest section of Chicago, IL. Iowa had never recorded a tornado in January before this outbreak. 32 total tornadoes occurred, 14 of them in Iowa. Nine twisters occurred in Missouri, 8 in Illinois, and 1 in Wisconsin. 

 

I think there was a pretty good snowstorm a couple days later.  

[MIKEKC]

This storm for Late Friday and Saturday has been mostly south of KC on the data and still is on most data...interesting take from the 18zNAM. Just enough cold air

[Clinton]

Models a little colder with the storm Saturday, maybe a little snow.  It would be some big wet flakes and it won't stay long but I'll take it.

[jaster220]

Black Ice this evening up here. Grocery store lot is a skate rink. With 2-3" fresh snow yesterday, plow banks are 2 to 3 feet along the highway. It's really nice to see after 4 winters mostly without deep snow.

[Andie]

49* Rain tonight.  
 

[chescowxman]

Dense fog across much of the area this morning rain chances increase through much of the day with upward of 0.5" of rain falling by late tonight. We should see temps rise into the 50's today with low's night likely to set a record warm low temperature for the 26th. The current warm low is 42 degrees set back in 1967 - the current NWS Forecast has us at 46 for a low. Tomorrow looks like the warmest day in this stretch with temps falling back to near normal by Sunday and below normal by Monday. Rain from Saturday night through Monday AM could change to some snow by late Sunday night especially across NW areas.

Records for today: High 73 (1967) / Low 2 below (1935) / Precipitation 2.54" / Snow 25.4" (1905) that was the 2nd day of a 2 day snowstorm that resulted in 29" of snow our 4th largest storm in history behind only February 14, 1899 (53.0") / December 26, 1909 (38.0") and April 12, 1894 (29.2")

[Clinton]

Rainy day here with about a half to 1 inch expected.  It would really be something if the drought was busted before Spring arrives.  Keep it coming! 

[Tom]

Happy Thursday!  Out here in the Desert Southwest, I have been sharing in the foggy/dreary days like many of you out East from the series of storms that have tracked literally directly overhead.  My father flew back last night from a 2-week adventure in the Chicago area, as well as, Holland, MI for my nephew's hockey tournament during the Arctic Blast on MLK weekend!  Back on Jan 7th when I went up to the mountains storm tracking I jokingly told him this is a preparation for what your going to deal with in Chicago.  Well, I will confidently say, this is probably his last time he will be going back there during the Winter!  At his age (76), he's had enough of the cold and snow...especially the -10's F stuff that he had to deal with in Volo, IL. 

Aside from that, how about some sunshine to lighten up the day??  That's the plan with Mother Nature out here later today...and...the extended...upper 70's??  Sign me up.

 

[Tom]

This week's of weather is not turning out the way I had envisioned it to be as I was hoping to see more colder HP's straddling the northern tier while the STJ fired up this week.  Just imagine the possibilities if there was just enough cold air around for all these "cutters"...I believe there will be 4 of them this whole week!  Sadly, no snow but lots of liquid that'll help put a big dent into the drought areas.

 

[Tom]

It took till mid afternoon for the sunshine to finally poke through the clouds but once it did I felt an immediate positive vibe.  One thing about living in Fountain Hills, your tucked away from the PHX valley in your own little valley with Mountain View’s.  

The main road that brings you into FH from Scottsdale rides up a nice hill and you get a great vantage point of the PHX valley.  I took this vid just as the sun came out.  You can see how low the cloud deck was at the time.

 

 

[tStacsh]

Models are very confused in the long range.   

[Tom]

Hmmmm, maybe the GFS was not so much "Out to Lunch" for the later part of the month.  The EURO appears to be siding with GFS on a pretty big Flip near the GL's/OHV region as an amplified trough crashes down into the East.  GFS/EURO/UKIE suggesting a clipper for our GL's peeps to close out the month of JAN.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

[MIKEKC]

.66 inches of rain so far today for my area of KC and still ripping out there. What could have been had it been in the 20's. The January thaw has pretty much wiped out our snow pack, except for the big snow piles. Standing water everywhere and flowing into ponds and streams. Drought is history here in KC. 

Crazy thing and very rare in my opinion, even know KC had record cold this month and more than 15 or so days below freezing for the most part and 68 of 72hrs at one point well below zero, the grass that is now visible, is super mid-April green. (cool season turf and even some warm season fescue's) We had a very wet and warm Dec. and the first little snow occurred on Jan. 5th followed by the big storm on Jan. 8-9th. At that time, temps were 30-33 degrees, so no frozen ground. The snow fell obviously and created a snow pack. After that, arctic air poured in for 10+ days. The cold never got to the soil to dormant the grass. Treated turf and cool season grasses are crazy green right now. 

My warm season fine blade fescue turf is usually really brown now. The artic air would have done that, but, the blanket of snow kept it warm if you will. 

[Niko]

It is balmy out there. A lot of snow is melting, that's for sure, but it also feels good being outside and not freezing your a** off. This January thaw is very much welcomed by me. Temps are in the upper 30s to near 40F attm under hvy mist. 

Btw: being a nino winter, January was very active in terms of snowfall and very cold temps. Averaging above normal snowfall for the month.

 

[Niko]

@TomNot sure if I skipped any vid's or pics of yours, but did you happened to check out the mountains by ya area. They must have feet of snow up there.

[CentralNebWeather]

Snow melt taking off today. Still good drifts and large piles. My backyard, for example, has the snow from the Christmas blizzard, then the January blizzard and snows on top. The bottom drifts are very hard. 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

.66 inches of rain so far today for my area of KC and still ripping out there. What could have been had it been in the 20's. The January thaw has pretty much wiped out our snow pack, except for the big snow piles. Standing water everywhere and flowing into ponds and streams. Drought is history here in KC. 

Crazy thing and very rare in my opinion, even know KC had record cold this month and more than 15 or so days below freezing for the most part and 68 of 72hrs at one point well below zero, the grass that is now visible, is super mid-April green. (cool season turf and even some warm season fescue's) We had a very wet and warm Dec. and the first little snow occurred on Jan. 5th followed by the big storm on Jan. 8-9th. At that time, temps were 30-33 degrees, so no frozen ground. The snow fell obviously and created a snow pack. After that, arctic air poured in for 10+ days. The cold never got to the soil to dormant the grass. Treated turf and cool season grasses are crazy green right now. 

My warm season fine blade fescue turf is usually really brown now. The artic air would have done that, but, the blanket of snow kept it warm if you will. 

That's quite fascinating and thanks for sharing this info about the grass still being green after the last arctic blast.  The snow definitely had a blanket effect on the soils.  Now, if this was up north where they depend on trails and ice, this would be a bad scenario as they usually want to see arctic air without any snow to freeze up the ground.  Hopefully you can rebuild that nice snow pack by the 2nd week of FEB into MAR.

 

1 hour ago, Niko said:

@TomNot sure if I skipped any vid's or pics of yours, but did you happened to check out the mountains by ya area. They must have feet of snow up there.

Yes, I posted video's of a trip I took back on Jan 7th up into the White Mountains in Pinetop/Lakeside, AZ.  It was a wonderful experience driving through Blitz conditions and powder blowing sideways.

[bud2380]

Any signs of winter again this year?  Man, everyday I take a peak at the models, no decent snow to be found anywhere in the middle of the country.  Long range temps still look above average for the forseeable future. 

[gimmesnow]

10 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Any signs of winter again this year?  Man, everyday I take a peak at the models, no decent snow to be found anywhere in the middle of the country.  Long range temps still look above average for the forseeable future. 

We got our two weeks. Maybe we will get a bonus at the end of Feb. GFS is toying with showing 50s and 60s in the MW feb 6th. It's a long ways out but it's not good. GFS doesn't even have below freezing temps for me until the end of the run. Maybe it will calm down and cool off but this is a big yikes from me

Looks like this winter was a bad December, half of January bad, half of February bad. Maybe we can finish off Feb and start March on a good foot but that looks more like jet ski weather and I wouldn't be surprised if the lake was clear of ice by then. It feels like for the last several years we get two weeks of winter followed by a big thaw, then an attempt to grasp at straws that winter will come back.

At least the two weeks we got were amazing. Probably the best two weeks of snowmobiling and snowboard I've had in SE Wisconsin in at least 5 years. I am very grateful we just got that, I know it sounds like I'm crying a lot but honestly the ski hills were amazing after they turned on the guns full blast with that cold, and we basically had 20in of base on the trails here. Usually I am bouncing off of rocks and stuff but only a couple corners were blown out in the woods from people doing power slides or whatever. Those two weeks were honestly fantastic and even if the rest of the winter is pure garbage it was enough to keep me going for next winter.

[MIKEKC]

Here's the party starter for the second round of winter starting right around FEB. 4th or so...Let's go!

[Hoosier]

If anybody went into this winter thinking that it was going to be a great winter of sustained cold and snow, well, that's on them.  Yeah, anything is possible when it comes to weather, but that is a serious uphill battle with a Nino of this intensity.  Sucks for the places and people who depend on snow.

December was an absolute disaster... no other way to say it.  I'm grateful for the wintry stretch that we just went through even though it lacked a big snow in my backyard.  If we can get a good stretch in February (preferably with a big snow), then I'll consider is satisfactory given the circumstances.  I'm almost going to be tempted to give out 2 grades for this winter... one that completely ignores the ENSO state and one that takes that into context.

[OttumwaSnomow]

31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If anybody went into this winter thinking that it was going to be a great winter of sustained cold and snow, well, that's on them.  Yeah, anything is possible when it comes to weather, but that is a serious uphill battle with a Nino of this intensity.  Sucks for the places and people who depend on snow.

December was an absolute disaster... no other way to say it.  I'm grateful for the wintry stretch that we just went through even though it lacked a big snow in my backyard.  If we can get a good stretch in February (preferably with a big snow), then I'll consider is satisfactory given the circumstances.  I'm almost going to be tempted to give out 2 grades for this winter... one that completely ignores the ENSO state and one that takes that into context.

I depend  on snow for my livelihood, and a couple other families linked to my business  depend  totally  on the weather  we are given.   We were absolutely  hammered Jan 8th to Jan 24th.  38.7" of snow and 2 rounds od freezing rain. Just on the 2 big systems in mid January  we are breaking  all revenue  records. Last year we eeked out 28" of snow. Did a ton of salting. Ive been in business  in se Iowa  for 17 yrs and i believe  no place has more volatile  weather!  We have had 70 inches of rain in one year  and weve had 20!  No month of the yr is trustworthy  here! But we have adapted  and  have figured  out what it takes!  Snow is more reliable  here than most other places in usa.  We have built  a business  up to 200 customers.  We put in 200 hrs in 13 days taking  care of 74 commercial  sites.  Even if nov dec feb and march are duds. We will survive!

[westMJim]

The January thaw continues. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 38/33 there was 0.14” of  rain fall and at 7AM there was 6” of snow on the ground. There once again was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 31/17 the record high of 62 was set in 1944 and the record low of -9 was set in 1927. The record snow fall was 16.1” set in 1978 that is also the record for a calendar day at GR. The most snow on the ground was 19” in 1979 and 1963. Last year the H/L was 33/27 and there was 1.1” of snow fall

 

[westMJim]

Some weather history for January 26 in southern Lower Michigan

1967: Temperatures in the 20s are some 40 degrees colder than the day before, and heavy snow begins falling, piling up a foot or more along with increasing winds.

1978: A storm known as the Cleveland Superbomb moves north from the Gulf of Mexico and deepens explosively, becoming one of the worst blizzards in Midwest history. From one to two feet of snow falls across southern Lower Michigan, whipped into huge drifts by strong gusty winds. Several new records were set including a new record low sea level barometric pressure of 28.68, observed at 6:00 AM. At least 9 deaths were attributed to the blizzard, most roads were impassable, roofs collapsed under the weight of the snow, and the airport in Grand Rapids was closed from late on the 25th until the 27th. Governor Milliken declared a state of emergency and requested additional federal aid for snow removal.

2021, a low-pressure system brought widespread snow to the region with 3 to 5 inches observed north of I-69. Much of this occurred during the morning commute with visibilities dropping to around a quarter mile and snow quickly accumulating on the roads.

Across the USA

1937:   The wettest month ever in Cincinnati, Ohio, is January 1937, when 13.68 inches fell. Their average January amount is 3.00 inches of precipitation. The overabundance of precipitation over the Ohio River basin caused near-record to record flooding in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Kentucky. On this day, the river gauge reached 80 feet in Cincinnati, the highest level in the city’s history. The Ohio River reached 57 feet in Louisville, Kentucky, on the 27th, setting a new record by ten feet. Seventy percent of the city was underwater at that time. The NWS Office in Louisville, Kentucky, 

[chescowxman]

We picked up another 0.15" of rain since midnight bringing our 3 day total to 0.61". This brings our January total to 6.28" this is the wettest January since the 7.08" that fell back in 1999. The wettest January was the 9.72" that fell back in 1979. Today and tomorrow should be mainly dry with the fog finally burning off by noon today. Today will be the warmest day (might hit 60 degrees) before we trend back close to normal by Sunday and into the new week. Rain chances increase again by Tomorrow night and should continue till Monday AM. We could see another inch or so of rain by then. We should be cold enough to see some wet snow mix in toward Monday morning but with temps staying just above freezing no accumulation.

Records for today: High 75 (1950) - warmest January temperature on record / Low 1 below zero (1922) / Precipitation 1.40" (2011) / Snow 14.0" (2011)

[Minny_Weather]

I'm excited for this torch to REALLY begin so we can get rid of this D**n freezing drizzle. Sidewalks and parking lots have been treacherous to walk (or skate) on since Wednesday evening.

[OttumwaSnomow]

Just absurd numbers here. Another .66" rain  yesterday's  sys. Too many systems  to count! Still 8" snow of thick slush covers  the landscape  evenly! 

4.35" precip Jan

6.72" precip since dec 15th

38.7" snow in January 

43.2 snow for season

This is area with sparse and somewhat inaccurate  data. So my goal it  show exactly  what happens  here. I strongly  believe  that winter precip, particularly  frozen precip has bee grossly  under reported.  Thats based on comparisons ive been  seeing for years.  I firmly  believe  based  on what ive observed  since 2008 that  snow and winter precip  averages  are considerably  higher  than what most sources say.  In 2018 2019 I measured  67 inches of snow here. Even last winter i had 28".

 

[Clinton]

I hope everyone enjoys this thaw because come Feb 10th we are headed back to the deep freeze and it may last for some time.  Yesterday I showed the Euro Weeklies here is the GEFS Ext.  This resembles February of 2021.

The AO:  PV could get displaced

NAO stormy look for the Midwest and east

EPO showing a ridge over Alaska is likely

WPO

PNA is strong positive but not so extreme that it will cut off moisture. 

[Tom]

On 1/21/2024 at 8:34 AM, Tom said:

As the incoming JAN Thaw rears its ugly head, I wonder how much that wet snow that fell will subdue the snow melt.  Anyone that lives farther away from the city of Chicago fair a better chance of holding onto it longer.  The NW burbs should be far enough away that temps don't torch into the 40's this week and DP's appear to be held in the low/mid 30's for most of the MW/GL's.  I hope to see the snow pack in tact by end of this coming week...what happens the following week is still crap shoot as there could be a solid but brief cold snap for the GL's/OHV.  I'm eyeing a big time Ground Hog's day Storm around here in the 4 corners that will eventually head East into a massive Bowling Ball for the opening week of FEB.  This pattern looks to resemble the Christmas Day Beast.  I expect to see a lot of trends for more blocking across S Canada.  

Boy, I did expect to see the growing trends of HP across S Canada but NOT to this extent....what the models are showing is something you would normally see in early Spring like in MAR or APR.  Crazy Blocking pattern.  That Hudson Bay Block is throwing a massive curve ball as to what happens with the Storm entering the 4 corners to open up FEB.  Buckle up...this will be interesting to see the model trends over the next week.  I'm expecting FEET of that lovely Powder to fall up in Flagstaff and White Mountains.  How about you guys farther East?  Let's see if Mother Nature finds a way to cool things off and make it Snow....LFG!!

[gimmesnow]

GFS temps just went down, a lot from the 12z yesterday. In fact since then it's been trending steadily cooler.

Compared to the last model run I posted showing 50s, same time.