January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

It is even stronger with the Tuesday storm

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

What hour are you out to? It doesn't look much different to me yet, but I'm only at hour 60.

It's a huge move in the same direction it's been going the last five runs.

[Meatyorologist]

Unless the operational is a huge warm outlier in the spread, this is a massive L for our chances. Huuuuge move in a bad direction

[SpaceRace22]

Hear me out, why don't we nuke the low? Anyone know a guy who can hook us up with a couple cruise missiles?

[Meatyorologist]

New general rule of thumb I'm giving myself, cut all blocking in the LR by half; that's what you get in the short range. Works even during our successful cold snaps.

[Requiem]

Onto the 12z which I think will be different. Not necessarily better, mind you, but I have a feeling there's going to be a profound change.

[SpaceRace22]

Weren't the hurricane hunters supposed to be flying over the Pacific today? I'm afraid the sudden injection of better data probably happened between the 12z and 00z runs, which is why we got dragged back to down Earth so suddenly today.

[MossMan]

Power is out. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah this run is toast at just Day 4.5. I will say it wouldn't take a great deal for improvements with if ridge mergers took place. Need that strong low to be castrated.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Power is out. 

Big winds up there?

[SpaceRace22]

7 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Weren't the hurricane hunters supposed to be flying over the Pacific today? I'm afraid the sudden injection of better data probably happened between the 12z and 00z runs, which is why we got dragged back to down Earth so suddenly today.

Okay just did some digging and did find some good news here. The Hurricane Hunters have NOT flown yet. Both aircraft arrived in Sacramento from Biloxi a little under 12 hours ago and do not appear to have taken off again since. There's little chance that they went out on their missions without a transponder on either, as with crew rest requirements, right about now is the earliest they would be able to legally take off again after flying in from Biloxi.

They will probably be heading out later this morning, so expect major changes in the 00z runs tomorrow night as they get that data injected. Tomorrow's 00z runs will be the most significant runs of this entire event, and whatever they show is almost certainly going to be the final answer.

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/TEAL83

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/TEAL84

[Meatyorologist]

GEFS making the same moves by hr 36, that one's gone too

[AbbyJr]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yeah this run is toast at just Day 4.5. I will say it wouldn't take a great deal for improvements with if ridge mergers took place. Need that strong low to be castrated.

Unfortunately, that strong low might be a feature the models did not pick up on earlier. If that's the case then it's game over for the top tier arctic blast. Still time to revert to the colder solutions but latest trends have me worried.

[Meatyorologist]

I mean at least it's the GFS.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Okay just did some digging and did find some good news here. The Hurricane Hunters have NOT flown yet. Both aircraft arrived in Sacramento from Biloxi a little under 12 hours ago and do not appear to have taken off again since. There's little chance that they went out on their missions without a transponder on either, as with crew rest requirements, right about now is the earliest they would be able to legally take off again after flying in from Biloxi.

They will probably be heading out later this morning, so expect major changes in the 00z runs tomorrow night as they get that data injected. Tomorrow's 00z runs will be the most significant runs of this entire event, and whatever they show is almost certainly going to be the final answer.

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/TEAL83

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/TEAL84

It’s a non event at this point. This solution was always the most likely. Wonder what the models latched onto to spit out those wild runs for a few days straight.

[SpaceRace22]

Let's not forget how many times we've all been cheering for a big windstorm that then ends up being a total dud because the low was overdone by the models, particularly the GFS. This could easily still change.

Given how firm the Spire held, and the fact that they *allegedly* have the most data of any model, I am absolutely not throwing in the towel yet here. KING SPIRE BABY

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It’s a non event at this point. This solution was always the most likely. Wonder what the models latched onto to spit out those wild runs for a few days straight.

On the real I really do want to know, what is the reason models ever find these scenarios in the first place? Since Dec 1990 we've seen KSEA depicted down into the single digits thousands upon thousands of separate times. It's never happened in that time span. What causes our global scale models to overemphasize blocking setups in the long range?

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

The JMA was right all along.

[SpaceRace22]

Also lmao at everyone having a meltdown over the GFS being the GFS in the mid range while the Euro is still far from a non-event. Not saying that this won't be a total bust, but this is absolutely not the situation where the GFS is likely to outperform the Euro. This is not over yet. Hydrostatic models within 7 days can eat my a**.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Big winds up there?

Been quite windy all night, but had a few big gusts about a half hr ago which did us in apparently. Calm and very wet now. I have our Starlink on one of those battery back ups but it will probably only last another half hour or so and then I will lose internet since I’m not firing up the generator at this hour. 

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah that strong low isn't some random thing that the GFS just made up, seems to be a legit possibility and it makes it significantly less likely that the really deep cold air can make significant progress to the SW. 

It is still possible the cold air makes it far enough south into northern areas such that Washington sees snow or we could get a backdoor blast into the Columbia basin, east winds into PDX and an overrunning event. 

There is really no way around it though, unless we see a significant reversal of these trends this event is going to probably get more marginal and nowhere near as cold as the historic cold maps we were seeing the past few days. Areas south and especially south of PDX are disproportionally screwed by these changes. 

Lets hope for better runs tomorrow. 

[Christensen87]

This is what I was afraid of. This same thing happened last year. CFS has been right the whole time…

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The Weather Forums as the White Sox...

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Also lmao at everyone having a meltdown over the GFS being the GFS in the mid range while the Euro is still far from a non-event. Not saying that this won't be a total bust, but this is absolutely not the situation where the GFS is likely to outperform the Euro. This is not over yet. Hydrostatic models within 7 days can eat my a**.

Bro. It’s not the midrange anymore. It dies on day 4. It’s not just the GFS either. Save yourself some time and pack this one in.

[AbbyJr]

8 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah that strong low isn't some random thing that the GFS just made up, seems to be a legit possibility and it makes it significantly less likely that the really deep cold air can make significant progress to the SW. 

It is still possible the cold air makes it far enough south into northern areas such that Washington sees snow or we could get a backdoor blast into the Columbia basin, east winds into PDX and an overrunning event. 

There is really no way around it though, unless we see a significant reversal of these trends this event is going to probably get more marginal and nowhere near as cold as the historic cold maps we were seeing the past few days. Areas south and especially south of PDX are disproportionally screwed by these changes. 

Lets hope for better runs tomorrow. 

At first I thought it was something the GFS just made up. But its concerning that the Euro trended in the same direction.

[SpaceRace22]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Bro. It’s not the midrange anymore. It dies on day 4. It’s not just the GFS either. Save yourself some time and pack this one in.

I disagree that day 4 isn't the midrange, but regardless, the point still stands. The Euro is more accurate than the GFS at all points within 7 days, whether that be 2 days out, 3 days out, or 6 days out. The GFS is ultimately a tool for detecting long range pattern changes.

Obviously the trends tonight are very much not a good sign, but this is hardly the done deal you are making it out to be. Wait until we get through tomorrow's 00z runs before completely writing this off.

[Deweydog]

Retrogression!

[AbbyJr]

6 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I disagree that day 4 isn't the midrange, but regardless, the point still stands. The Euro is more accurate than the GFS at all points within 7 days, whether that be 2 days out, 3 days out, or 6 days out. The GFS is ultimately a tool for detecting long range pattern changes.

Obviously the trends tonight are very much not a good sign, but this is hardly the done deal you are making it out to be. Wait until we get through tomorrow's 00z runs before completely writing this off.

Agreed.

This is timeframe we normally see a rug pull. Sometimes it's temporary and sometimes not. But it's a complex pattern.

[SpaceRace22]

Here's the 00z GraphCast, fwiw. Still on board.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Retrogression!

You’re up awfully late/early! Your power out as well? 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

You’re up awfully late/early! Your power out as well? 

Night nurse duty.

[SunAndSnow]

Rain and south wind is raging outside. 

[Perturbed Member]

17 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

At first I thought it was something the GFS just made up. But its concerning that the Euro trended in the same direction.

Agree, I suspected it was a fluke on the 00z GFS but we saw a similar hint on the 00z Euro and the GFS doubled down on it for the 06z. That low rapidly deepening like that is also somewhat supported by the mesoscale models. It is still possible that feature doesn't pan out but we can't pretend it is just made up nonsense anymore. Unfortunately, that low getting that strong simply throws a wrench into the rest of the mechanism needed to deliver the goods. 

[SpaceRace22]

Yeah yeah yeah we're almost certainly boned here, BUT: Spire has 127 satellites, all collecting input data that no other model has access to. That is the 7th largest number of satellites of any nation or corporate entity on Earth. The model has only been publicly available for barely over a month, so we have no idea yet if it sucks or not. For all we know, it's been quietly outperforming everything and we just haven't known about it yet.

It wouldn't be completely insane if it ends up having a far greater level of skill for coastal regions like ours where the other models routinely choke due to the enormous lack of data over the Pacific. Having good input data is HUGE when it comes to these things. There's a reason the 06z and 18z runs of the GFS are so frequently out to lunch. Their input datasets are older and smaller than the 12z and 00z runs.

Do not discount the possibility that Spire's satellite constellation has allowed the model to catch some minute change that the GFS is totally missing. BELIEVE.

 

The low at 60 hours on the 00z Spire, looking namby pamby as hell:

[AbbyJr]

6 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Yeah yeah yeah we're almost certainly boned here, BUT: Spire has 127 satellites, all collecting input data that no other model has access to. That is the 7th largest number of satellites of any nation or corporate entity on Earth. The model has only been publicly available for barely over a month, so we have no idea yet if it sucks or not. For all we know, it's been quietly outperforming everything and we just haven't known about it yet.

It wouldn't be completely insane if it ends up having a far greater level of skill for coastal regions like ours where the other models routinely choke due to the enormous lack of data over the Pacific. Having good input data is HUGE when it comes to these things. There's a reason the 06z and 18z runs of the GFS are so frequently out to lunch. Their input datasets are older and smaller than the 12z and 00z runs.

Do not discount the possibility that Spire's satellite constellation has allowed the model to catch some minute change that the GFS is totally missing. BELIEVE.

 

The low at 60 hours on the 00z Spire, looking namby pamby as hell:

So your saying the Spire has access to more data in the North Pacific than the other models?

[Dave]

Had a torrential downpour here. Woke me up. Checked the car and surprisingly the splat test was confirmed. 40 degrees out.

[SpaceRace22]

7 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

So your saying the Spire has access to more data in the North Pacific than the other models?

Yes.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Temperature and dewpoint has been falling ever since last night. Been having some heavy rain coming through. I'll do the splat test when I go to work. 

[Tanis Leach]

5 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This location ******* sucks. Bye bye regional event. They just don't make it this far south anymore.

Eugene used all their luck on 2013.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Yeah yeah yeah we're almost certainly boned here, BUT: Spire has 127 satellites, all collecting input data that no other model has access to. That is the 7th largest number of satellites of any nation or corporate entity on Earth. The model has only been publicly available for barely over a month, so we have no idea yet if it sucks or not. For all we know, it's been quietly outperforming everything and we just haven't known about it yet.

It wouldn't be completely insane if it ends up having a far greater level of skill for coastal regions like ours where the other models routinely choke due to the enormous lack of data over the Pacific. Having good input data is HUGE when it comes to these things. There's a reason the 06z and 18z runs of the GFS are so frequently out to lunch. Their input datasets are older and smaller than the 12z and 00z runs.

Do not discount the possibility that Spire's satellite constellation has allowed the model to catch some minute change that the GFS is totally missing. BELIEVE.

 

The low at 60 hours on the 00z Spire, looking namby pamby as hell:

I still believe because the ECMWF is still cold.

But the 06Z ECMWF is actually stronger with the low than its 00Z run.