January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[RentonHill]

I just spent $1200 on rush order t shirts so ya'll better show up

[iFred]

5pm at Tapster
https://maps.app.goo.gl/dsmUAHaG3ddD7hyTA

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I just spent $1200 on rush order t shirts so ya'll better show up

[SpaceRace22]

God, I cannot believe how insufferable Twitter, reddit, and other more "general public" facing outlets can be for discussing weather and the models. It's literally impossible to share a single model run without a million people freaking out about how "irresponsible" it is and how "it's one run!!!!!!!!!"

Blows my mind how spectacularly people like this are missing the point.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

God, I cannot believe how insufferable Twitter, reddit, and other more "general public" facing outlets can be for discussing weather and the models. It's literally impossible to share a single model run without a million people freaking out about how "irresponsible" it is and how "it's one run!!!!!!!!!"

Blows my mind how spectacularly people like this are missing the point.

Everyone just needs to remember to add a disclaimer when it’s more than 3-4 days out. Except on here

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

God, I cannot believe how insufferable Twitter, reddit, and other more "general public" facing outlets can be for discussing weather and the models. It's literally impossible to share a single model run without a million people freaking out about how "irresponsible" it is and how "it's one run!!!!!!!!!"

Blows my mind how spectacularly people like this are missing the point.

That Graham guy is a complete idiot.  Always craving attention 

[Cloud]

23 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I just spent $1200 on rush order t shirts so ya'll better show up

Wait, we’re being serious? When is this going down? 

[Gradient Keeper]

18 minutes ago, iFred said:

5pm at Tapster
https://maps.app.goo.gl/dsmUAHaG3ddD7hyTA

Where is parking?

[snow_wizard]

The Spire is insanely cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The Spire is insanely cold.

Oh?

[SpaceRace22]

What the actual **** he's not kidding. It's the coldest run of any deterministic output we have seen in this whole event. Widespread below 0 for everyone.

[iFred]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Where is parking?

In the garage, below the building.

[iFred]

11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Wait, we’re being serious? When is this going down? 

This Thursday

[snow_wizard]

I can't get over all of these runs showing heights of 510 or lower.  Just crazy.

[DeepFriedEgg]

5 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

What the actual **** he's not kidding. It's the coldest run of any deterministic output we have seen in this whole event. Widespread below 0 for everyone.

 

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The Spire is insanely cold.

Jesus christ

[SpaceRace22]

51 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Oh my f*cking god mark nelsen’s video podcast from today is pure gold! He reacts to the 12z euro live! All of you need to see it. If you scroll down to the video and forward to about 26 mins.

 

https://www.kptv.com/podcasts/weather/

I'm listening to this now and it's amazing, thank you for this haha. I don't at all mean this in a critical way because I love these guys and I know that most TV weather people are not actually meteorologists, but I am a little appalled that he is the only person on this podcast who knew what 850mb temps are. He quizzed his people on it and they were like "..." 

I really love that KPTV and Mark are so willing to get into the nitty gritty details of the models and how they work though. I've never seen any other channel in any city that so regularly shows direct results from individual model runs and even mentions the existence of 850mb temps. My mom watches Fox 12 all the time, and today SHE told ME that she heard about the Euro and how cold it was. I about fell out of my chair. The Portland subreddit also always seems to be the least insufferable of the major cities whenever a weather thread pops up there, and I think that's a direct result of Mark's efforts to educate the general public and not dance around how the models work and why long range forecasts are always biased towards climo.

[Deweydog]

Mark trying to do some damage control this evening…

https://www.kptv.com/2024/01/05/about-those-scary-cold-weather-maps-bad-byproduct-social-media/

The lid is wayyyy off this thing. Fun times!

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS running. Anyone scared?

[Gradient Keeper]

Here we go. @Meatyorologist, you got this?

[SpaceRace22]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z GFS running. Anyone scared?

Only in the sense that I suspect it is about to show an event so extreme that I am scared it will LITERALLY KILL ME. lfg

[Parrot]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z GFS running. Anyone scared?

Positively spooked. I may have everything going right in my personal life with a perfect Husky season to boot, but if I don't get snow I will insist that I have been forsaken by every God known to man.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Here we go. @Meatyorologist, you got this?

Suuuure, let's do this

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 0/Init

4 Run Trend

[Gradient Keeper]

20 minutes ago, iFred said:

In the garage, below the building.

I'm on Google Maps street view and can't yet see where that is. I see parking out in front on both side of Valley street with a parking lot adjacent to it.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 1

4 Run Trend

[Slushy Inch]

Had too much coffee this morning. Guess I’m doing the night shift too. Or maybe it’s the hype 

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 2

4 Run Trend

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift time!!

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 3

4 Run Trend

[SpaceRace22]

It's probably going to be way too expensive since it's geared toward business clients, but I just submitted a request for a price quote for Spire Enhanced, which goes out to 15 days and allows regional/city views and not just the wide view of all of North America. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge a notch stronger through HR 84

[SpaceRace22]

Before we get too caught up with the 06z GFS, take a look at this 850mb map from the 00z Spire. Just holy ******* wow. That is -30 to -35C 850mb temps in Central Oregon. -20C (or colder) in Seattle. Unreal.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 4

4 Run Trend

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

00z GFS Day 4

4 Run Trend

My weenie is starting to tingle. This is off to a good start.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Before we get too caught up with the 06z GFS, take a look at this 850mb map from the 00z Spire. Just holy ******* wow. That is -30 to -35C 850mb temps in Central Oregon. -20C (or colder) in Seattle. Unreal.

Hard to even comprehend how cold this would be.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Before we get too caught up with the 06z GFS, take a look at this 850mb map from the 00z Spire. Just holy ******* wow. That is -30 to -35C 850mb temps in Central Oregon. -20C (or colder) in Seattle. Unreal.

Looks like -31c The Dalles.

[Slushy Inch]

Good thing about timing moving up is I can sleep sooner

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Before we get too caught up with the 06z GFS, take a look at this 850mb map from the 00z Spire. Just holy ******* wow. That is -30 to -35C 850mb temps in Central Oregon. -20C (or colder) in Seattle. Unreal.

King spire?

[SpaceRace22]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Hard to even comprehend how cold this would be.

Wind chills around -25F or colder in PDX. I have no words. This model has to be broken since this is it's first big arctic blast event. But... if it's not... then my god.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 5

4 Run Trend

[Gradient Keeper]

Strong low