1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[CentralNebWeather]

15 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Picked up 5” in three hours so far! 

Probably around 4”. Snowing as hard now as ever, with bands coming up from the south and moving east to west. Looks like they will merge into a nice heavy band. Wind is really increasing. My wife went to the grocery store and had the truck in 4x4. She said visibility decreased from when she left until now  

 

[Grizzcoat]

5 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

It’s just ugly and stupid, the short term models seem to be showing the warm air fetch into East Central Nebraska and Western Iowa… this is going to cut into our totals big time. Still have some hope to make at least 6”, but it’s definitely dwindling.

i think you peeps over there will do better.  But - for sure - trends down along I-80 to DSM. But I don't trust HRRR/RAP past 6-9 hours as clintbeed said. He is right on. Why people post HRRR / RAP maps out so far is beyond my pay grade.

Stick with radar now. And Common Sense.

Hope you do well!!!

[winterfreak]

Snow is coating the grass and elevated surfaces. Temp around 34.

[ATW]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

It seems like most morning models show another 4-7 inches here with the main system, which aligns very nicely with the NWS forecast. I have a feeling we might be on the lower side of that range given the slight ESE movement with the heavier totals up here (moreso aligning with NW IA) but with roughly 8 inches on the ground already I'm feeling pretty D**n good no matter what happens from this point. Everything else is just icing on the cake.

That being said, I'm really pulling for the more southern folks to score! I've experienced countless last minute rug pulls in the PNW so I know the feeling of everything seemingly falling apart 24 hours before the event starts. Looks like there are some extremely last minute slightly more favorable trends for down there so I'm crossing my fingers for you guys. Best of luck!!

The models certainly increased my totals from yesterday. Too bad I’m riding that line. Not sure I buy those totals for here. I’m more interested in the storm after this one for here….but it may trend north in the coming days.

[ATW]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Half of this would be one of the biggest surprises ever.  I like the trend

The models sure moved this south. I’d be happy with 2-3 inches at this point. 

[mlgamer]

The latest from here...my county has now been added to the WSW calling for 5-8 inches. I probably have picked up an inch so far but there has been melting with temps above freezing. My current temp is 35.1. So far I have avoided the dry slot but generally only light to moderate snow has been falling recently.

[Clinton]

Heavy snow falling here a dusting on the ground. 

[ATW]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

 

This is exciting!

Just started raining and it’s mixed with big flakes. 

[ATW]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

 

This is exciting!

They just added another county in Missouri  with an advisory south of me. 

[winterfreak]

Was just added to the Winter Storm Warning.

[The Snowman]

Omaha situation certainly looking a little dire early on here but note that NWS Omaha updated the WSWarning around 11:15 AM and left forecast totals unchanged; one would think if they saw serious issues there would have been at least a minor shift. Also, as the storm system begins to really ramp up, already seeing strengthening returns in far SE Nebraska moving northwards ... think early melting might dent totals, sure, but several inches still a very realistic outcome.

[Clinton]

RAP 

[hawkstwelve]

Heavy snow here again as the next band rotates through. Going to take my golden retriever for a walk soon so I'll get out and measure again in a bit.

[winterfreak]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Heavy snow here again as the next band rotates through. Going to take my golden retriever for a walk soon so I'll get out and measure again in a bit.

Looks like it overachieved up that way. Congrats! 

[Grizzcoat]

Dang- what a beast- getting some bouns snow here as no model had SN here yet-

[Minny_Weather]

If I get over an inch from this I will be shocked. Dry air is being a b!tch. The previously good areas of SW MN might get screwed here, too.

The fact that Euro is the only model still on my side isn't encouraging 

[Black Hole]

This seems like a big adjustment upwards for KC. What are you expecting from yesterdays runs? 

[Clinton]

Easily an inch on the ground.  Snow sticking to the roads which surprised me.  Absolutely puking snow atm.

[Black Hole]

HRRR comparison showing our little adjustment for tomorrow morning. Perhaps my ceiling is now an inch? 

[hawkstwelve]

Up to 10.5 inches here. Snow has lightened up again for now. 

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

i think you peeps over there will do better.  But - for sure - trends down along I-80 to DSM. But I don't trust HRRR/RAP past 6-9 hours as clintbeed said. He is right on. Why people post HRRR / RAP maps out so far is beyond my pay grade.

Stick with radar now. And Common Sense.

Hope you do well!!!

It’s puking snow now, no more mixing issues. Nothing is really sticking to the roads yet, however we are finally over an inch on hard surfaces… the snow should really start to stack up these next few hours.

[The Snowman]

Absolutely massive flakes, nickel size approaching quarter size

[Bryan1117]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Up to 10.5 inches here. Snow has lightened up again for now. 

Building that glacier up in SD… awesome score HawksTwelve! Hopefully we can catch up this afternoon and evening here in Omaha.

[bud2380]

18z HRRR continues to lay down impressive totals in Eastern Iowa.

[Tony]

18Z NAM not looking that bad so far

[Black Hole]

Trend for the last 24 hours on the HRRR

[Clinton]

From my counties ems

URGENT JCEMA Alert:Due to current weather conditions, we urge all to avoid traveling if possible. Roads conditions are worsening as well as an increase in 

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, Tony said:

18Z NAM not looking that bad so far

Even has me flipping to snow after 18z tomorrow.  Ha

[Tony]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Even has me flipping to snow after 18z tomorrow.  Ha

Even a subtle shift means tons in a setup like ours.

[Pros3lyte]

This is so obnoxiously ridiculous it makes me want to toss my laptop out the window. 

Can you all guess where I'm located?

[Money]

Milwaukee going with 9-14. Seems high 

 

National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
209 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>059-062>064-067>069-090415-
/O.CON.KMKX.WS.W.0001.240109T1200Z-240110T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMKX.WW.Y.0001.240109T0300Z-240109T1200Z/
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Lafayette-Green-Rock-
Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro,
Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth,
Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg,
Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin,
Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown,
Hartford, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison,
Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Darlington, Shullsburg,
Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead,
Janesville, and Beloit
209 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO
3 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Snow
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. For the Winter Storm Warning,
  heavy snow expected. Additional snow accumulations of 8 to 11
  inches for a storm total of 9 to 14 inches. Winds gusting as
  high as 35 mph.

 

[bud2380]

Really interested in reading the AFDs today.  Here was DVN's forecast.

 

[Jayhawker85]

New NAM continues to bomb 1-70 and south of it with good amounts

[FV-Mike]

Lake, Kane and LaSalle counties now upgraded to WSW for the CHI area

 

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, Tony said:

Even a subtle shift means tons in a setup like ours.

True.  My expectations are really low locally (3-4" with most of it melting and a tiny bit of wraparound) so anything better than that would be a win in my book.

[gimmesnow]

Looks like NWS expects this to go north? 9-14 in the WSW for Portage (north of Madison), 8-11 for the WSW around Lake Geneva.

[bud2380]

WPC shows an 80% chance of 6" or more across a large portion of eastern Iowa.

[ATW]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Easily an inch on the ground.  Snow sticking to the roads which surprised me.  Absolutely puking snow atm.

I would say an inch on the ground here with a temp of 32.2 degrees. Heavy snow

[Tony]

5 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Looks like NWS expects this to go north? 9-14 in the WSW for Portage (north of Madison), 8-11 for the WSW around Lake Geneva.

Just a farther north expansion in qpf but not in the low itself

[hawkstwelve]

WSW extended from 6AM to Noon tomorrow, I would assume due to blowing and drifting snow concerns. Still calling for an additional 2-4 inches. 

Looks like we will have another band rotate through in the next hour or two. Most models shows snow picking up to moderate intensity after 6PM, which is when we receive the bulk of the remaining expected amounts, and then tapering off early tomorrow morning.