January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[bud2380]

Difficult to post the Ukie in just a 24 hour interval here, but here is one snapshot.

 

[Black Hole]

Interesting that the UKMET gave me 2-3" (10-1 ratio) with this system when nothing else has shown more than an inch or so for a few days. At least it means I have to keep watching lol 

[Money]

Euro gonna be east of 0z IMO 

[bud2380]

Euro is pretty lame.

 

[Hoosier]

Pretty close to locking in a decent storm here.  Main question is whether it will be kind of a run of the mill good storm or will it be more like a decadal/generational kind of storm.  

[Hawkeye]

The latest Euro is a bit messy with the energy, so it's kinda strung out until farther east.

[Hoosier]

28 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The latest Euro is a bit messy with the energy, so it's kinda strung out until farther east.

Indeed.  Here's a comparison of the 12z Euro at 108 hrs and the 00z Euro at 120 hrs.  The 00z run was closed off and deeper.

 

 

At the same time, this results in an 11 mb change in surface low pressure between the runs... pretty substantial.

This isn't anything that can't change back in future cycles, so we just watch and wait.

[Hoosier]

The 12z CIPS analogs are basically a hall of fame lineup.  1/14/1979, 12/15/1987, 1/2/1999, 12/15/2007, 2/1/2011, 1/31/1982 are all on the list lol

[winterfreak]

GFS is going to look better...

[Hoosier]

A little baffled why Kuchera is "stingy" in areas that are a couple degrees below freezing at the surface and no warmer layers aloft.  Kuchera is spitting out some sub 10:1 ratios in that environment, which doesn't make a lot of sense.  Not saying ratios will be outstanding or anything as wind will also be a limiting factor, but I see no reason why it wouldn't be more like 12:1 or so.

[Hoosier]

A little example...

Why is Kuchera showing less than 10:1 in this environment?  It should be at least 10:1 if not a little higher.

[Hoosier]

Even with the above questions, Kuchera still spits out like 18" here on nearly 2 inches of precip so not complaining by any means.  Not getting reeled in to these crazy amounts yet though.

[Clinton]

27 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

GFS is going to look better...

Can we just keep it right here lol.

[Tom]

5 hours ago, Bumblin Bman09 said:

My wife is headed to Philly on Friday for a Hockey tournament and my buddy is headed to Holland for a hockey tournament this coming weekend.  I already informed them to try and book travel earlier if possible.   

My nephew's hockey tournament is in Holland, MI this weekend...small world!

[Hoosier]

Had some time to flip through the 18z GFS in more detail, and man, that run is GHD level crippling for the southeast 1/2 of the LOT cwa.

Mixing depths would be questionable with inland extent, but areas within several miles of Lake Michigan would have a good chance to mix up to 850 mb at times, where 55-60 kt wind resides for a period of time.  Couldn't even rule out areas farther inland mixing like that on a more ephemeral basis.

Now, what can go wrong?  

[Chambana]

42 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Had some time to flip through the 18z GFS in more detail, and man, that run is GHD level crippling for the southeast 1/2 of the LOT cwa.

Mixing depths would be questionable with inland extent, but areas within several miles of Lake Michigan would have a good chance to mix up to 850 mb at times, where 55-60 kt wind resides for a period of time.  Couldn't even rule out areas farther inland mixing like that on a more ephemeral basis.

Now, what can go wrong?  

yeah that run was insane. Drops 12-16” from Michigan down to NW Indiana into central/northern Illinois. *IF* this verifies could be one one of the more significant hits here since 1/6/14 or the infamous 2/13/07 blizzard. 
 

also it’s not like this storm is fantasyland, it’s  90ish hours away now. Crazy to think, I foresee minimal sleep this week.

[Hoosier]

15 minutes ago, Chambana said:

yeah that run was insane. Drops 12-16” from Michigan down to NW Indiana into central/northern Illinois. *IF* this verifies could be one one of the more significant hits here since 1/6/14 or the infamous 2/13/07 blizzard. 
 

also it’s not like this storm is fantasyland, it’s  90ish hours away now. Crazy to think, I foresee minimal sleep this week.

Starting to get into NAM range. 

[Clinton]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Starting to get into NAM range. 

The NAM is having a tough time to say the least.  Hopefully it will suck a little less this time.

[CentralNebWeather]

22 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The NAM is having a tough time to say the least.  Hopefully it will suck a little less this time.

Forecast has me with snow likely Thursday morning through Friday morning. We should have a nice glacier if it verifies on top of what we got today. 

[Clinton]

Just now, CentralNebWeather said:

Forecast has me with snow likely Thursday morning through Friday morning. We should have a nice glacier if it verifies on top of what we got today. 

That will make for some serious cold up there.  Local met has us with a high of 7 on Sunday.

[Clinton]

18z Euro Control and Mean

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

That will make for some serious cold up there.  Local met has us with a high of 7 on Sunday.

Local met. saying if we add another 3-7” with the next storm on top of what we have right now, lows may be -20’s with wind chills much lower. He even said there might be a day this weekend we stay below 0 for a high. Depends on how much we get later this week. Been a pretty good winter so far. 2 blizzards in the last two weeks. Hope you can score some of the drier snow this weekend. It is fun to watch it blow around. 

[hawkstwelve]

I haven't been following this as closely with the system going on today but surprised to see a 2.5 inch mean on the 18z EPS. I figured I was out of these upcoming rounds for the most part. Something to keep an eye on I guess. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Forecast for Thursday. Interesting. 

[Hoosier]

25 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro Control and Mean

Nice to see 2" precip showing up in IN on the control.

Boy if this system could slow down even just a little.  I think that's what some of those earlier insane GFS runs were doing.

[Money]

NAM 

[Hoosier]

Just now, Money said:

NAM 

It wouldn't be the NAM if it didn't have the rain/snow line blasting north.

[Money]

Icon looks like it will be coming west of its previous runs 

[Money]

Icon at 99

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, Money said:

Icon looks like it will be coming west of its previous runs 

Yeah, seems a bit west at least in terms of amounts.

[ATW]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

The NAM is having a tough time to say the least.  Hopefully it will suck a little less this time.

This may miss us to the north….again. Then we’ll get cold and the next storm will be suppressed. I can’t complain. A couple,of years ago we got bullseyed by several storms.

[Hoosier]

Barring wholesale changes, somebody is getting a blizzard out of this.  Surface low strength and timing of occlusion/rate of weakening are obviously important factors in determining how widespread those conditions will be, but it is increasingly likely.

[Money]

Early guess is gfs comes in just a tad East of 18z but west of 12z

[Money]

Pretty similar overall 

gets down to 974 in east central IL 

[Money]

[Money]

GEM 

[CentralNebWeather]

Canadian 24 hour snowfall for the next storm. What a pattern is shaping up. 

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, Money said:

GFS has a band of 2.5" precip in northwest IN... unreal.  Imagine that with even slightly better ratios than modeled.

[Money]

Just now, Hoosier said:

GFS has a bad of 2.5" precip in northwest IN... unreal.  Imagine that with even slightly better ratios thsn modeled.

Looks like some good LE potential along Wisconsin and Illinois? 

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, Money said:

Looks like some good LE potential along Wisconsin and Illinois? 

Yeah, there'll be some.  Parameters aren't outstanding, but sufficient, and a completely ice free lake obviously helps.