January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[CentralNebWeather]

3KM

[East Dubzz]

I’m changing my tune and riding with the 4-8” of the NWS’s prediction. They got my area right last time. And I’m trusting them again.

gimme another foot

[jcwxguy]

[gosaints]

NAM IS DRUNKEN

[The Snowman]

1 minute ago, jcwxguy said:

Ride or die

[Hoosier]

I've always liked CAA on southwesterly winds

[NickH4NU]

Des Moines is in a Snow Squall Warning at the moment and there are several reports of cloud to ground lightning strikes in Dallas county! 

[hawkstwelve]

Ruh roh. Big swing south on 3km NAM. 

[Jaycee_CHI]

Models showing rain here again?! Well find your shocked colored crayon and color me with it! 
 

Seriously though I actually do think that’s plausible, it’s kinda been the story over the past few years for the Chicago area. I’m just hoping to get a good shoot in, those pictures in Iowa from the last storm looked incredible, hoping for something similar here!
 

Anyways, based on what I’ve gathered, here’s my prediction:

 

Chicago area: 1-3” because rain 

Des Moines: 19” because always

The rest of Iowa: 8” because it’s Iowa

Omaha: [ERROR 404]

Central NebraskaWx : 12” somehow because our lord and savior loves him

[Stacsh]

The globals have had a good handle on this storm so far.  

[jcwxguy]

[macminey2]

23 minutes ago, NickH4NU said:

Des Moines is in a Snow Squall Warning at the moment and there are several reports of cloud to ground lightning strikes in Dallas county! 

Never seen that before on the map!  Wow.

[jcwxguy]

grid was just updated

[Hoosier]

Gimme this one

[NickH4NU]

ICON still liking Omaha

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jaster220]

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Honestly, 80%+ of the event looks like a wetter snow for Chicago area.  It's been a while since there has been a large wet snow event of this potential magnitude in Chicago proper.  Maybe have to go back to the Nov 2015 storm?  But even that one screwed the downtown area big time with hardly any snow.

2016 missed ORD southeast iirc. Nailed yby tho, right? Not sure what to think on this one. Not sold on the winds until like last night, most of the snow has already fallen. We'll see tho. Super busy with new work and not the best time for me to be able to follow. Keep falling way behind on these threads. With a very solid 10" already OTG, anything more with winds would be pretty amazing. Good luck down there!

[gabel23]

Ok so NWS and news stations all went way down with totals today for my area. Models tonight going up, sounds like we are getting everything figured out!

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

2016 missed ORD southeast iirc. Nailed yby tho, right? Not sure what to think on this one. Not sold on the winds until like last night, most of the snow has already fallen. We'll see tho. Super busy with new work and not the best time for me to be able to follow. Keep falling way behind on these threads. With a very solid 10" already OTG, anything more with winds would be pretty amazing. Good luck down there!

Yeah, ORD barely got anything on 2/24/16 while I got around a foot.  Good luck to you too.

[Pros3lyte]

Man- DTX saying that the dry slot will move through and pull in some really cold air and winds will start gusting up to 50mph! 
 

Forecast discussion at 4p  mentioned approaching high wind warning criteria AS the remaining 1-3 inches falls on Saturday.

That sounds like blizzard conditions to me…!!
 

[shakjen]

58 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Ruh roh. Big swing south on 3km NAM. 

Do you have the map?

[NickH4NU]

What is this GFS doing

[jcwxguy]

[bud2380]

[Money]

GFS

[hawkstwelve]

With the NAM jumping off board, the HRRRRR remains alone on the further NW track. I do not have enough faith in that model to believe it. Globals win. 

[ATW]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

The morning of the last storm they showed me getting a dusting - 2 and I got 6.  I don't like my odds with them showing accumulations for me lol.

I don’t feel great about this one either but it’s possible some areas in central Mo.could get lucky with a few inches. They mentioned this in the NWS Stl AFD.

[jcwxguy]

[ATW]

12 hours ago, KTPmidMO said:

Yeah I haven't had a good feeling about this storm for central Missouri for a couple days now. Maybe I'll get proved wrong but I don't know. I'm more interested in the Monday system. Most models are putting a WIDE area of snow down on Monday and ratios look to be 20:1 or better.

I hope we score at least one decent storm before we lose the cold air.

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

I’d sure take this. 

[hawkstwelve]

The 00z CMC looks like a really nice compromise. I'd be super happy with that result. 

I will say it's 12z run this AM showed 2 inches falling here today and I thought it was off its rocker as it looked like everything was passing to the south. But then we had a very heavy band develop and drop a quick 2 inches. So I'll give it kudos there. 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

Different perspective, based off their algorithm 

[StupidFlanders]

Please dont tell me this is going to miss Chicago area again....

[Hawkeye]

Thursday morning's models won't be contaminated by this evening's snow burst.

[jcwxguy]

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

Omaha: [ERROR 404]

Central NebraskaWx : 12” somehow because our lord and savior loves him

Jaycee, this literally made me laugh out loud. Snow forecasts in Omaha seem to always get screwed by some type of unforeseen phenomenon (too much dry air, warm air aloft or at the lower levels, sleet/pingers, Oma-dome, etc).   

[jcwxguy]

[The Snowman]

Alright, so Omaha's outlook now sits as...

00z NAM (Kuchera): 12.0"
00z NAM (10:1): 7.4"
00z NAM 3km (Kuchera): 4.7"
00z NAM 3km (10:1): 2.8"
00z RGEM (Kuchera): 11.2"
00z RGEM (10:1): 6.7"
00z ICON (10:1): 6.9"
00z GFS (Kuchera): 6.8"
00z GFS (10:1): 3.4"
00z GEM (Kuchera): 12.5"
00z GEM (10:1): 6.8"

... Post-00z NBM: 4.5"
... Flowers: 5.5"

Strange to me, even accounting for any snow crystal degradation due to wind, that forecasts would come in so firmly below the Kuchera average of 9.4", and even the 10:1 ratio average of 5.7".

Edit: The above also implies local SLR of 16:1.