January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[shakjen]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Sign me up, even though I am on the edge again of the heaviest. Says 13.9" for me but even the 8-10" would b good.

[StupidFlanders]

Accuweather still says 8-12 for me. But seeing 4-6 now. Disappointing...

 

Any hope this thing goes 12-16 for west burbs of Chicago?

[bud2380]

I'm diving in head first with the GFS.  20" for my backyard or bust!  Not that I'll be able to measure it properly.  

We're going to see incredibly varying snow reports with this storm.  With 8-12" on the ground in many places already and 6-15" more coming in spots, and blowing and drifting.  Measuring will be incredibly difficult and will lead to wildly varying reports even in the same cities I am sure.  

[East Dubzz]

Just now, bud2380 said:

I'm diving in head first with the GFS.  20" for my backyard or bust!  Not that I'll be able to measure it properly.  

We're going to see incredibly varying snow reports with this storm.  With 8-12" on the ground in many places already and 6-15" more coming in spots, and blowing and drifting.  Measuring will be incredibly difficult and will lead to wildly varying reports even in the same cities I am sure.  

Yeah I have horrible spots to measure. Probably one I'll just rely on measurements amount me. 

[DaMama]

44 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I know I have season tickets.  I'm only 20 miles away, but don't think I'll venture out in it regardless.  There won't be any fans there.  

Iowa Swim and Dive is on a bus to U of Illinois and is heading back tomorrow at 2PM.  I am guessing Basketball will go to!

[tStacsh]

After the storm

THE NAM12'S ORIENTATION   OF LIFT IN THE DGZ COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE   OCCURRING AS COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LAKE   MICHIGAN HAS THE LOOK OF AN I-96 TO I-94 DOMINANT BAND OF SNOW AND   BLOWING SNOW, PROLONGING TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS   HIGHWAYS AND INTERSTATES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.   THIS IS IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPACTS UP AND   DOWN THE LAKESHORE REGION WITH NO TIME TO DIG OUT FROM THE OUTGOING   WINTER STORM.    

MODEL QPF OVER THIS 24-HR PERIOD (00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY) FROM THE   ECMWF AS WELL AS THE NAM12 IS RANGING FROM 0.25"-0.50", WHICH WITH   SNOW RATIOS FORECAST TO BE 15:1 OR A BIT HIGHER, WOULD YIELD   SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4"-8" WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 1 FOOT NEAR   AND WEST OF US 131. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW   WILL SPREAD FURTHER INLAND THAN MOST LAKE EFFECT EVENTS, POTENTIALLY   IMPACTING AREAS SUCH AS LANSING WITH SEVERAL INCHES.

[Pros3lyte]

On 1/10/2024 at 7:25 AM, Pros3lyte said:

Now comes the steady march NW - eastern Michigan baroclinic zone is non-existent after last storm’s wash out here- hopefully this clipper tomorrow will overperform and hit the higher end of NWS predictions.

I’m really worried about rain cutting into totals here. For some reason my gut is telling me we’ll end up receiving somewhere in the 4-5 inch range when all is said and done. 
 

I really hope I’m wrong and we get buried! 

DTX Reduces expected totals for the eastern portion of the state. Looks like my gut was right! SEMI Never fails to be just a few counties too far east.
Always the bridesmaid never the bride I guess


MIZ049-054-055-060>062-068-120930- /O.EXT.KDTX.WS.A.0002.240112T1500Z-240113T1800Z/ Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-Livingston- Including the cities of Bad Axe, Caro, Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, and Howell 336 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches possible. Winds gusting in excess of 50 mph. * WHERE...Huron, Tuscola, Sanilac, Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer and Livingston Counties.

[FV-Mike]

18 minutes ago, StupidFlanders said:

Accuweather still says 8-12 for me. But seeing 4-6 now. Disappointing...

 

Any hope this thing goes 12-16 for west burbs of Chicago?

my Grid for Geneva shows 7-15. ORD even has 6-13

[hawkstwelve]

First very light snow from this system is starting to fall here. Hope there is more to come! Good luck everyone!!

[Hoosier]

20 minutes ago, StupidFlanders said:

Any hope this thing goes 12-16 for west burbs of Chicago?

I think that's not a trivial possibility.  Might be tough to have that much on the ground though with the marginal temps.

[Hoosier]

RC over at LOT wrote a banger of an afternoon afd and did mention possible upgrade to warning for parts of northwest IN.

[bud2380]

21z RAP

 

[Ottawa CO, MI]

17 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

After the storm

THE NAM12'S ORIENTATION   OF LIFT IN THE DGZ COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE   OCCURRING AS COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LAKE   MICHIGAN HAS THE LOOK OF AN I-96 TO I-94 DOMINANT BAND OF SNOW AND   BLOWING SNOW, PROLONGING TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS   HIGHWAYS AND INTERSTATES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.   THIS IS IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPACTS UP AND   DOWN THE LAKESHORE REGION WITH NO TIME TO DIG OUT FROM THE OUTGOING   WINTER STORM.    

MODEL QPF OVER THIS 24-HR PERIOD (00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY) FROM THE   ECMWF AS WELL AS THE NAM12 IS RANGING FROM 0.25"-0.50", WHICH WITH   SNOW RATIOS FORECAST TO BE 15:1 OR A BIT HIGHER, WOULD YIELD   SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4"-8" WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 1 FOOT NEAR   AND WEST OF US 131. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW   WILL SPREAD FURTHER INLAND THAN MOST LAKE EFFECT EVENTS, POTENTIALLY   IMPACTING AREAS SUCH AS LANSING WITH SEVERAL INCHES.

Here in Hudsonville MI, expecting 2-3 feet over the next 8 days...

[hawkstwelve]

Zone forecast just got updated from 2-4 to 4-6 inches. NWS FSD mentioned a few times in their afternoon AFD that counties along I-90 (including mine) would have totals updated to higher amounts if they felt the "slight northward shift" was going to pan out over the more southern solutions. So hopefully that is a good sign.

[Andie]

A bit of a change ahead.  This was our last temperate day then the bottom falls out.  

[Bryan1117]

2 hours ago, jcwxguy said:

Too bad oax didn't go with blizzard 

I think we will see an upgrade early tomorrow morning... Honestly I get their reluctance as it really depends on when the snow shuts off here. If the snow holds on longer until the afternoon hours - then I think an upgrade to a Blizzard Warning will happen.  

[Stacsh]

41 minutes ago, Ottawa CO, MI said:

Here in Hudsonville MI, expecting 2-3 feet over the next 8 days...

Set up reminds me of Nov 2014.  

[Pjjanthony]

I have seen blizzard warnings issued without any snow falling. It all depends on the winds.

11 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

I think we will see an upgrade early tomorrow morning... Honestly I get their reluctance as it really depends on when the snow shuts off here. If the snow holds on longer until the afternoon hours - then I think an upgrade to a Blizzard Warning will happen.  

 

[Ottawa CO, MI]

8 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Set up reminds me of Nov 2014.  

Yes, a system storm followed by relentless west winds for 6 days...

[westMJim]

23 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Set up reminds me of Nov 2014.  

If and this is still a very big IF this plays out the way it looks like it might at this time I would look at January 1999 more than that November event. We shall see there are still things that may not happen will have a better handle on it tomorrow and Saturday. We shall see.

 

[jcwxguy]

[james1976]

The snow shield really widens out as this thing deepens. DMX AFD mentions 970s low and "bombing out" in Illinois. 

[indianajohn]

@Hoosier so have come to a conclusion what to expect in  our area tomorrow. My kids are scheduled to leave for Miami tomorrow night. I told them its highly unlikely. I just dont see flights being able to take off tomorrow night.

[jcwxguy]

finally updated forecast

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

There has been this perfect U shape around my county for the past 2+ hours where radar returns with go right up to the county line on the W, E, and S sides but then just refuse to crossover. I've gotten the occasional flurry or two being right on the edge but otherwise nothing.

I think Mother Nature must be trolling me.

[Black Hole]

In a surprise to absolutely no one, what was looking like 1-3" of snow has turned into probably nothing tomorrow even though it'll be 15F by morning

On the other hand, a surprise severe threat seems to be developing this evening with the risk for hail. Perhaps we can get enough hail and then flash freeze it and pretend it was snow. 

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

@Hoosier so have come to a conclusion what to expect in  our area tomorrow. My kids are scheduled to leave for Miami tomorrow night. I told them its highly unlikely. I just dont see flights being able to take off tomorrow night.

Yeah, that's probably a no-go.

Feeling a little more optimistic about this one as time goes by.  The short range models are slowly trending colder, and the global models generally look pretty solid.  I don't expect to walk away as the big winners in LOT, but I think the chances of us really getting screwed big time are dwindling.  

[gabel23]

2 hours ago, jcwxguy said:

Too bad oax didn't go with blizzard 

I expect that blizzard warning to be expanded. We went from literally nothing to visibility 1/4 mile in seconds. The snow started that fast. Drove around in it for 30 minutes and will put videos up soon but wow. Things are blowing like crazy, won't take long for country roads to become blown shut. 

[jcwxguy]

hopefully someone posts the 18z euro soon

 

[Tom]

9 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

I expect that blizzard warning to be expanded. We went from literally nothing to visibility 1/4 mile in seconds. The snow started that fast. Drove around in it for 30 minutes and will put videos up soon but wow. Things are blowing like crazy, won't take long for country roads to become blown shut. 

What's your temp?  Single digits?  That's what I miss is the very cold storms with fatty dendrites, but the winds typically shatter them.  Looking forward to see your vids and pics from everyone!

[gabel23]

Just now, Tom said:

What's your temp?  Single digits?  That's what I miss is the very cold storms with fatty dendrites, but the winds typically shatter them.  Looking forward to see your vids and pics from everyone!

Currently 5 degrees! I can't remember a snow storm with this bitter cold and amount of snow being forecasted since December of 2000! You should remember that! I was a Junior in high school and we had 3 small storms before xmas and the temps were in single digits. I know Chicago did even better than we did! 

[metallica470]

22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, that's probably a no-go.

Feeling a little more optimistic about this one as time goes by.  The short range models are slowly trending colder, and the global models generally look pretty solid.  I don't expect to walk away as the big winners in LOT, but I think the chances of us really getting screwed big time are dwindling.  

I think you jinxed us with the Euro going a little north

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Currently 5 degrees! I can't remember a snow storm with this bitter cold and amount of snow being forecasted since December of 2000! You should remember that! I was a Junior in high school and we had 3 small storms before xmas and the temps were in single digits. I know Chicago did even better than we did! 

Unfortunately, I was attending SIUC in Carbondale, IL at that time and missed half of that month...even though we did get cold snowstorms down in S L it wasn't nearly as much as up north.  I can't recall how Christmas turned out that month when I was home from break.  Nevertheless, I agree with you, it's been a long time since we both experienced a deep snow pack with frigid temps and another incoming Big Snow.  Enjoy it as much as you can!   

[Hoosier]

13 minutes ago, metallica470 said:

I think you jinxed us with the Euro going a little north

This is when it's time to pull out the "18z/no sampling" card. 

In all seriousness, just want like 6" out of this.  Anything more is bonus.

[Stacsh]

my totals will be cut in half the way this is going north.  Another low party.  So annoying.  

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[gabel23]

Going to be an insane storm for us. Recorded this video around 5 today. 

[Hoosier]

Compared to the 12z run, the 18z Euro looks about 75 miles farther north with the surface low at 18z Friday.

Models seem to be having some fits resolving the low structure... how elongated it is and such.

[metallica470]

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This is when it's time to pull out the "18z/no sampling" card. 

In all seriousness, just want like 6" out of this.  Anything more is bonus.

Agree. I would be happy with anything more than a few inches. Didn't even use my snow brush last season which has carried into this season as well.  We may get some in the morning before the rain melts it away.