January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Ottawa CO, MI said:

Hoping for a moist WSW flow...

With the Low not getting so deep it also takes away a bit of the favorable backside moisture unfortunately. Already just 18F here

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Sadly, this one will hurt for a lot of peeps in Chitown and southern burbs...however, my brother up north in Volo, IL got 8" and just to his west in Algonquin I saw a report of 11" and they never saw a switchover.  ORD officially ended up with 4.7" so far but could tack on some more today. 

@FV-Mike, did you do good?  Hopefully the wave thats forecast to develop this evening provides and nice fresh coating on top of the frozen glacier.

Despite yesterday's underperformance, ORD is actually running above average in snowfall on the season, believe it or not.  Through January 12, there has been 15.7", while average to date is 13.5" and will tack on a bit more today.  I would bet that if you asked people from around the area if there has been more snow than average so far, almost nobody would say yes.  Heck, even a lot of Chicago area posters on the weather boards probably wouldn't believe it.  I think the very mild December and struggle to retain much snowcover for very long skew the feel of this winter.

[Stacsh]

Not a bad storm.  Ended up with around 7”.  Up to a foot possible tonight.   More likely 4-8”.   I’m in a perfect spot for lake effect snow tonight with the w to wsw winds.   

[Stacsh]

1 hour ago, Ottawa CO, MI said:

Hoping for a moist WSW flow...

FOR TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES WESTERLY AND A SHORTWAVE COMES   THROUGH WHICH BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT BUMP IN MOISTURE DEPTH AND   INVERSION HEIGHTS PER BUFKIT PROFILES. HIRES DATA HAS A STRONG   SIGNAL FOR A STRONG CONVERGENCE BAND SETTING UP NEAR THE I-96   CORRIDOR. THIS OCCURS AS THE VERY COLD AIR IS INFILTRATING OUR SE   CWFA FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SETTING UP STRONG LOW LEVEL FGEN FORCING   NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE MUCH WARMER LAKE MODIFIED AIR.    
 

BANDS NEAR I-96 SHOULD INTENSIFY BY 10 PM AND WILL BE FAIRLY   NARROW SO AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE   VARIABLE. WHERE BANDS PERSIST IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE   LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UPWARD OF ONE FOOT BY NOON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY   WITHIN A TRIANGULAR POLYGON BOUNDED BY ROUGHLY MKG-BIV-IONIA,   INCLUDING GRR. THE WIND REGIME LATER TONIGHT VERY MUCH FAVORS THE   GRR AREA/KENT COUNTY FOR SOME HIGHER END L.E.S. AMOUNTS.

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Stacsh said:

FOR TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES WESTERLY AND A SHORTWAVE COMES   THROUGH WHICH BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT BUMP IN MOISTURE DEPTH AND   INVERSION HEIGHTS PER BUFKIT PROFILES. HIRES DATA HAS A STRONG   SIGNAL FOR A STRONG CONVERGENCE BAND SETTING UP NEAR THE I-96   CORRIDOR. THIS OCCURS AS THE VERY COLD AIR IS INFILTRATING OUR SE   CWFA FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SETTING UP STRONG LOW LEVEL FGEN FORCING   NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE MUCH WARMER LAKE MODIFIED AIR.    
 

BANDS NEAR I-96 SHOULD INTENSIFY BY 10 PM AND WILL BE FAIRLY   NARROW SO AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE   VARIABLE. WHERE BANDS PERSIST IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE   LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UPWARD OF ONE FOOT BY NOON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY   WITHIN A TRIANGULAR POLYGON BOUNDED BY ROUGHLY MKG-BIV-IONIA,   INCLUDING GRR. THE WIND REGIME LATER TONIGHT VERY MUCH FAVORS THE   GRR AREA/KENT COUNTY FOR SOME HIGHER END L.E.S. AMOUNTS.

Sweet! was just going to say that their snowfall maps have the highest totals south of GR, not yby. But things may have changed for the better. Good luck, not that you need it. SHSN has reached here after quite a lull in flakes flying. Constant drone of the plow guy doing a 2nd round of clean-up here at the Plex.

[Jayhawker85]

A band of snow is moving over Lawrence and KC now dropping about a half inch of snow making the roads slick 

[Stacsh]

Just now, jaster220 said:

Sweet! was just going to say that their snowfall maps have the highest totals south of GR, not yby. But things may have changed for the better. Good luck, not that you need it. SHSN has reached here after quite a lull in flakes flying. Constant drone of the plow guy doing a 2nd round of clean-up here at the Plex.

It’s always hit or miss.  But I usually do well with a stronger wind out of the west.  Any slight sw wind will really get the job done.   Either way.  Cold and at least light to moderate off and on  lake effect snow through maybe next weekend.  
 

it’s winter finally. 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Despite yesterday's underperformance, ORD is actually running above average in snowfall on the season, believe it or not.  Through January 12, there has been 15.7", while average to date is 13.5" and will tack on a bit more today.  I would bet that if you asked people from around the area if there has been more snow than average so far, almost nobody would say yes.  Heck, even a lot of Chicago area posters on the weather boards probably wouldn't believe it.  I think the very mild December and struggle to retain much snowcover for very long skew the feel of this winter.

100%...maybe after this week of cold coming up they will dial back and tell you its been a "tough" Winter...

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

It’s always hit or miss.  But I usually do well with a stronger wind out of the west.  Any slight sw wind will really get the job done.   Either way.  Cold and at least light to moderate off and on  lake effect snow through maybe next weekend.  
 

it’s winter finally. 

If noticed from reading your posts over the years, that it does take a lot for you to get excited about any winter storms, LES or cold during the winter.  With that being said, I think winter has finally arrived in your book and this time its not happening at the tail end of JAN or sometime in FEB for a couple weeks!  Enjoy the show!

[Niko]

13 hours ago, WinterSquall23 said:

Thanks Niko!   Hopefully we can score some more with the lake wide open for business!  I am just amazed we had a snow storm during an elnino.   Pretty incredible. !!

Yes..sometimes Nino winters can be kind, I guess. 

Watch out for later this afternoon and evening for some lake effect bands that will set-up shop within the 1-94 and then push up northward between the M-59 corridor & I-69. This band can be very intense. Couple to several inches could be likely.

[Niko]

Note: Yesterday there was also thundersnow reported w/ that heavy snow falling during the late afternoon hours. I think it was around Shelby Twp. Pretty cool stuff.

[Hawkeye]

Other spotter/Cocorahs reports from Cedar Rapids are in the 6-8" range, but I'm just going to record 5".  My snow board only has 2.5" on it this morning, but the liquid is 0.43.  Extrapolated to 5", that's 0.80" and a 6 to 1 ratio.  This always happens when the snow is dry and the wind is strong.  The dry snow should have a relatively high ratio, but it's ends up being 5 or 6 to 1 for me.

[FV-Mike]

Final totals in Chicago area. O'hare almost to 7

 

 

[jaster220]

I like this fake-out map from GRR. LOL, the person took the standardized NWS color scheme and pasted on it some lower range totals for each color. The red that is usually 18-24" is 10-12+ on their improvised scale. Makes the storm look better than it otherwise would. Have to wonder if they did this to save face after the lackluster performance. 

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

Final totals in Chicago area. O'hare almost to 7

 

 

Guess it was lake front Peeps calling this a total fail. Those are respectable numbers and seem in line with the WWA headlines. 

[Niko]

Snowfall numbers:

 ***MACOMB COUNTY***
RICM4:  Richmond 4NNW     :0800/ 37 /  26 /  26 / 0.55/ 5.9/ 6

and

DTW  : Detroit Metro Airprt:   38 /  25  /  25  / 1.04  / 4.7 / 3

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

Final totals in Chicago area. O'hare almost to 7

 

 

D**n, the wave overnight must have laid down some better snow.  Glad that ORD surpassed 6” finally!  That’s map doesn’t at all look that bad from what their predictions were yesterday.

[Niko]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I like this fake-out map from GRR. LOL, the person took the standardized NWS color scheme and pasted on it some lower range totals for each color. The red that is usually 12-18" is 10-12+ on their improvised scale. Makes the storm look better than it otherwise would. Have to wonder if they did this to save face after the lackluster performance. 

Most likely.  Agreed 100%.

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, Niko said:

Most likely.  Agreed 100%.

And I had it wrong. The red is normally 18-24", so even more exaggerated, lol. 

[gabel23]

What a relentless storm my goodness!! We still are experiencing ground blizzard conditions, all of eastern Nebraska still closed down! North side of town some houses are buried up to the roof tops! This will probably go down as the worst storm I have seen in terms of cold, blowing snow and drifts. I’ll get more pics when I can, god it’s just so cold when you take your glove off! Currently sitting at -10 with a windchill -29! 

[Pros3lyte]

Ended up with about 5 inches as of 10am this morning- which was exactly what I figured we’d get two days ago lol.

6-10 is about as big as they get around these parts anyways. 

although have had some bonus showers and steady stuff moving across MBY all morning and we’ve probably got a solid 6 inches out there now. The roads are terrible from what I’ve hear and shoveling the driveway was an absolute beast with how heavy this stuff was.not gonna lie a small part of me was grateful it wasn’t more.

power outages everywhere around us. Huge tree fell on my cousins house nearby. I really do think that with how heavy this stuff was and how quickly it fell last night that DTX should have issued a warning. Reports of over 7 inches in Oakland county. I think their absolute fear of busting ended up being harmful for a lot of people because they weren’t expecting it to be so intense with just the advisory. Lots of folks very cold and in the dark last night and many cars in ditches. I’d like to see them be a tiny bit more liberal in the future if nothing more than to just get people to take this stuff more seriously.

[Ottawa CO, MI]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

If noticed from reading your posts over the years, that it does take a lot for you to get excited about any winter storms, LES or cold during the winter.  With that being said, I think winter has finally arrived in your book and this time its not happening at the tail end of JAN or sometime in FEB for a couple weeks!  Enjoy the show!

LOL, I'm the same way....I'm 15 miles SW of GRR.....should be a nice 6-8 tonight, but we have been burned so many times we become doubters...:)

[Niko]

1 hour ago, Pros3lyte said:

Ended up with about 5 inches as of 10am this morning- which was exactly what I figured we’d get two days ago lol.

6-10 is about as big as they get around these parts anyways. 

although have had some bonus showers and steady stuff moving across MBY all morning and we’ve probably got a solid 6 inches out there now. The roads are terrible from what I’ve hear and shoveling the driveway was an absolute beast with how heavy this stuff was.not gonna lie a small part of me was grateful it wasn’t more.

power outages everywhere around us. Huge tree fell on my cousins house nearby. I really do think that with how heavy this stuff was and how quickly it fell last night that DTX should have issued a warning. Reports of over 7 inches in Oakland county. I think their absolute fear of busting ended up being harmful for a lot of people because they weren’t expecting it to be so intense with just the advisory. Lots of folks very cold and in the dark last night and many cars in ditches. I’d like to see them be a tiny bit more liberal in the future if nothing more than to just get people to take this stuff more seriously.

I agree 100%. This should have been a WSW and not a WWA. DTW always plays it very conservative. I too saw cars in a ditch yesterday as I was coming in from Troy. Multiple cars were stranded and I also saw a semi that had gotten stuck in snow. I felt bad for the guy, so (I pulled over to see if he needed help, but he already had Triple AAA coming...real nice guy) so, anyways, I was having coffee in Starbucks w 3 of my clients and at first we saw it snowing lightly and then, suddenly, all hell broke loose and it was like a a sheet of very heavy snow and strong winds which lasted for several hours. It took me 2 hours to get home in Macomb. Nice storm though. Go GFS!!

[Stacsh]

11 minutes ago, Ottawa CO, MI said:

LOL, I'm the same way....I'm 15 miles SW of GRR.....should be a nice 6-8 tonight, but we have been burned so many times we become doubters...:)

Extended WSW until tomorrow.  This is quite the point forecast 

[Grizzcoat]

A few pics going around town.

[westMJim]

We will test the past statements that a warm/open lake in mid January should produce a good lake event. At this time that looks like the potential set up for tonight. The NWS is calling for this and we will see if that plays out or not. At the current time in MBY I am getting light snow with a temperature of 25. I will point out that the roads in Grand Rapids area at this time are good and well plowed. I hope everyone has their driveways cleared of the wet snow as that will become as hard as a rock with the cold.

[Grizzcoat]

[Tom]

55 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Memorable for sure…question remains, how long can you hold this deep snowpack around for?  Would be epic if you can keep the brown ground away till some time in MAR.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Pros3lyte said:

Ended up with about 5 inches as of 10am this morning- which was exactly what I figured we’d get two days ago lol.

6-10 is about as big as they get around these parts anyways. 

although have had some bonus showers and steady stuff moving across MBY all morning and we’ve probably got a solid 6 inches out there now. The roads are terrible from what I’ve hear and shoveling the driveway was an absolute beast with how heavy this stuff was.not gonna lie a small part of me was grateful it wasn’t more.

power outages everywhere around us. Huge tree fell on my cousins house nearby. I really do think that with how heavy this stuff was and how quickly it fell last night that DTX should have issued a warning. Reports of over 7 inches in Oakland county. I think their absolute fear of busting ended up being harmful for a lot of people because they weren’t expecting it to be so intense with just the advisory. Lots of folks very cold and in the dark last night and many cars in ditches. I’d like to see them be a tiny bit more liberal in the future if nothing more than to just get people to take this stuff more seriously.

You guys in SEMI got lucky to see a sig event considering the SLP went well NW of that area and the air mass before was not at all cold like the Jan '99 bliz. You  benefitted from aggressive lift and dynamics. That was fairly common occurrence back in the 70s and 80s but not so much any more.

If we had today's winds while that +SN was hitting last night, this would've been the memorable bliz advertised for sure.

[jaster220]

58 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Those spots with 25+ have to be a bit surprised. The huge GFS runs burying MO ended up in IA

[beaugie]

Ended up with 16.5" in Richmond WI. When I checked at 10pm we had 12" so another 5" through the night. Incredible. 

[Stacsh]

Radar starting to light up.  Fluffy light snow beginning.   Should pile up but compact as well. 

[BMT]

There is more blowing snow here tonight than last nights blizzard warning.  Visibilities are pretty poor right now

[OttumwaSnomow]

What a historic  week here in Ottumwa  Iowa, especially  mby which clearly  got more than even few miles south and lower elevation.  Of 103 hours starting monday at 3 pm until  Friday  at about 10 pm it was snowing  around over 65 hrs!!!!! A 4 day total of 34.2" and 2.70" of melted precip. What makes the 34.2" so impressive  is most of the snow fell with temps in the 26 to 31 degrees  range!  Meaning heavy and wet. Even 3 or 4 hours  of a freezing rain mix on both events  and still  34.2"!!  Most of the accumulations  occured  on back side deformation  and was lighter higher ratio snow. But this is a golden example  of  lack of uniformity  in measuring.  I meticulously  followed the snowboard, out of wind, 6 hour, last flake falling  measuring.  Thus  no doubt  why my location  leads much of Iowa. But i must say most models consistently  had me in the bullseye, particularly  storm #1.   The short term models nailed the storm # 2.. What a crazy week for a weather geek and a snow business!!!

[Hoosier]

51 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

What a historic  week here in Ottumwa  Iowa, especially  mby which clearly  got more than even few miles south and lower elevation.  Of 103 hours starting monday at 3 pm until  Friday  at about 10 pm it was snowing  around over 65 hrs!!!!! A 4 day total of 34.2" and 2.70" of melted precip. What makes the 34.2" so impressive  is most of the snow fell with temps in the 26 to 31 degrees  range!  Meaning heavy and wet. Even 3 or 4 hours  of a freezing rain mix on both events  and still  34.2"!!  Most of the accumulations  occured  on back side deformation  and was lighter higher ratio snow. But this is a golden example  of  lack of uniformity  in measuring.  I meticulously  followed the snowboard, out of wind, 6 hour, last flake falling  measuring.  Thus  no doubt  why my location  leads much of Iowa. But i must say most models consistently  had me in the bullseye, particularly  storm #1.   The short term models nailed the storm # 2.. What a crazy week for a weather geek and a snow business!!!

Remarkable.  What's your snow depth?

[OttumwaSnomow]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Remarkable.  What's your snow depth?

Was about 20". But i was in a hurry.  Seems like 22 or 23. 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

What a historic  week here in Ottumwa  Iowa, especially  mby which clearly  got more than even few miles south and lower elevation.  Of 103 hours starting monday at 3 pm until  Friday  at about 10 pm it was snowing  around over 65 hrs!!!!! A 4 day total of 34.2" and 2.70" of melted precip. What makes the 34.2" so impressive  is most of the snow fell with temps in the 26 to 31 degrees  range!  Meaning heavy and wet. Even 3 or 4 hours  of a freezing rain mix on both events  and still  34.2"!!  Most of the accumulations  occured  on back side deformation  and was lighter higher ratio snow. But this is a golden example  of  lack of uniformity  in measuring.  I meticulously  followed the snowboard, out of wind, 6 hour, last flake falling  measuring.  Thus  no doubt  why my location  leads much of Iowa. But i must say most models consistently  had me in the bullseye, particularly  storm #1.   The short term models nailed the storm # 2.. What a crazy week for a weather geek and a snow business!!!

 

Patience always wins in the end and you my friend have won Bigly!  $$$$$

[tStacsh]

Not sure how much snow.  But it’s a lot 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Not sure how much snow.  But it’s a lot 

3-Season room looking a lot more wintry OMG

Yby was indeed in/near ground zero - congrats!

Some yuuuge totals around there:

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
954 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0951 AM     Snow             3 W Grattan             43.09N 85.43W
01/14/2024  M15.0 inch       Kent               MI   Public

            Since evening of Saturday 13th.

[tStacsh]

25 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

3-Season room looking a lot more wintry OMG

Yby was indeed in/near ground zero - congrats!

Some yuuuge totals around there:

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
954 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0951 AM     Snow             3 W Grattan             43.09N 85.43W
01/14/2024  M15.0 inch       Kent               MI   Public

            Since evening of Saturday 13th.

Thanks.   That’s not too far from my backyard.  I feel like I’m “up north”.