January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[SnowySeeker50]

Such a lost model. Not gonna look at that anymore for the night

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Well the night shift GFS is a disaster. Hopefully the morning runs will bring something more encouraging because this is an absolutely shitt run.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The GFS should just be blocked out inside of day 7. Allow it's results to be viewed from day 7 to 16, but then turn it off inside of there. 

And maybe just the ensemble 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This GFS run feels like the Seahawks losing to the Steelers at home in the middle of a playoff run.

[SpaceRace22]

Wow. The 500mb maps absolutely do not do it justice to highlight just how extreme the difference is on the GFS. Look at this 850mb comparison with the same time on the 00z Euro. The GFS just completely removes all the cold air from the western hemisphere.

 

[Kolk1604]

At least we have the 06z Euro in an hour and 20 min 

[SpaceRace22]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This GFS run feels like the Seahawks losing to the Steelers at home in the middle of a playoff run.

Luckily, the 12z Euro will be the buzzing sound of our alarm going off and that sensation of relief as you wake up and realize it was all a bad dream.

[snow_wizard]

The Graph Cast finally came in.  Very cold.

[Cloud]

18 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Can’t wait to see Cliffs emergency post before temps plummet. Liking clinging to sinking ship. We need to improve gfs or just take it out Ol Yeller style

He’ll ride and die with the American model and obviously his own. Post-event he’ll do a write up on what went wrong and acknowledged the Euro. Leading to next the event, he’ll cite the GFS and WRF again. Rinse and repeat. 

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The Graph Cast finally came in.  Very cold.

I think that might be the coldest GraphCast yet. Very encouraging as we are inside 5 days now, where it outperforms the traditional models.

[snow_wizard]

I just don't get the GFS.  We're so close and no other model is anything like it.  Just an irritant, but still.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

I think that might be the coldest GraphCast yet. Very encouraging as we are inside 5 days now, where it outperforms the traditional models.

It is the coldest run yet. -20 850s for Seattle.

[SpaceRace22]

The colors on the GraphCast (and all these other ECMWF pages like this) are so confusing to me. That GraphCast image Jim just posted has the -16C line all the way to PDX, but based on the color scheme, it instinctively feels like it's barely even below 0C. In what universe does it make sense to have yellow-green be the 0C color?

[snow_wizard]

The current issue with the GFS and GEFS is the base of the block stays wide and the energy doesn't bleed into the high latitude block like the other models.  It's almost certainly wrong based on pretty much every other model.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The colors on the GraphCast (and all these other ECMWF pages like this) are so confusing to me. That GraphCast image Jim just posted has the -16C line all the way to Salem, but based on the color scheme, it instinctively feels like it's barely even below 0C. In what universe does it make sense to have yellow-green be the 0C color?

Can't wait until they improve the graphics on that model.

[SpaceRace22]

The 06z GEFS aren't just worse than the 00z, they are significantly worse. 

Give me a freaking break. What a big stinky doodoo model.

 

[Cloud]

And some how some way. Heading into day 10.. it looks like this. Which isn’t deviating too far away from the Euro. 
 

i think it’s safe to assume this model is broken inside 5 days.  

[SpaceRace22]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Can't wait until they improve the graphics on that model.

If @iFred is serious about setting up our own GraphCast with higher resolution if we can come up with a few 4090s, I will absolutely contribute money to that and do some legwork to get a GoFundMe or something going for it. It's open source so it's totally doable. (Hell, we could even run our own GFS with a beefy enough machine. That's downloadable too, lol.)

[SpaceRace22]

Umm holy crap, this is the AIFS, which is another AI model that has a near identical accuracy rating as the GraphCast (perhaps actually even marginally higher). 850mb temps of -24C to both SEA and PDX. And it keeps this pattern from the 11th until basically the end of the run.

Link: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202401070000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401070600

[HuskyMaestro]

Tsk tsk, you know better than that, Barbie..

[SpaceRace22]

Only 6 or 7 members of the 06z GEFS are even remotely okay, and of those, only 2 or 3 are outright good west of the Cascades. What an absolute joke. How the hell can it be THIS wrong this close to an event?

 

[SpaceRace22]

06z Euro looking excellent so far at hour 60. Everything nearly identical to the 00z, except just a notch further west. Exactly what we want to see.

[SpaceRace22]

Ok the 06z Euro is rapidly becoming H U G E. God I wish it went out past 90 hours.

[SpaceRace22]

Ok yep full run was perfect. Block still way more amplified than the GFS. Trough digging out just a hair further west than the 00z Euro. Cold air just moments away from pouring out over the ocean and all over us at the last frame. The 06z EPS will undoubtedly be great.

Compare the 540dm line off the coast of Oregon between the 06z and the 00z Euro. Also note that the 534dm line had only made it to Seattle at the same time on the 00z Euro. It's over PDX on the 06z.

06z Euro:

00z Euro:

[SpaceRace22]

06z GEFS 

[ajreich]

Quite the storm this week in the cascades, from the Portland AFD:

Quote

With all that being said, travel conditions in the Cascades remain our main concern Tuesday morning through Wednesday night. Given the heavy snow, high winds, blowing snow, and visibilities near zero, it is a safe bet to say travel conditions will be very dangerous during that time. Anyone with travel plans or recreation plans in the Cascades on Tuesday and/or Wednesday should reconsider their plans, or at the very least be well prepared with a winter survival kit, chains, and a reliable source of communication. It would also be wise to alert friends and family before traveling. This storm is no joke, and the official forecast is currently calling for 2 to 4 feet of new snow or more falling within a 48-hour period Tuesday morning through Wednesday night. Confidence in those snow amounts is fairly high given the lead time involved, as the NBM is showing a 60-85% chance for total snow amounts over 3 feet for elevations above 3000 feet in the Oregon Cascades and a 40-60% chance in the south WA Cascades. Snow amounts fall closer to 1 foot around 2500 feet with a dusting to 6 inches between 1000-2000 feet. Given the confidence involved, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for elevations above 2000 feet in the Cascades. Several inches of snow is also in the forecast for elevations above 2000-2500 feet in the Coast Range, impacting portions of US26 and ORE6.

 

[Ken in Wood Village]

2 hours ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Tsk tsk, you know better than that, Barbie..

LMFAO, this needs to be pinned so every time we watch a GFS, we can laugh

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Tsk tsk, you know better than that, Barbie..

What about the GEM?

[Andstorm]

My guess is that GFS will come back later today. This always happens with that model. It bounces around a ton. Nice that it’s at least emerging as a major outlier but hate seeing it nevertheless since the cold has moved east on us so many times in past and we are definitely in the balloon popping window now. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

12 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

What about the GEM?

This is last night's GEM run.

[TacomaWx]

Wow besides the GFS some great model runs last night. Got less than 120 hours to go! 

[SpaceRace22]

So um, if this is true, then it's settled. If GraphCast stays on board today, then it's happening, period. We're locked. Screw what literally any other model says.

https://www.pilotonline.com/2023/11/16/weather-forecasts-may-be-quicker-and-more-accurate-thanks-to-google-ai/#:~:text=In research published in Science,than the current gold standard.

[Timmy]

Looks like the icon may be slightly better at hour 96. At least looking at the nw view

[Blizzard777]

7 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

So um, if this is true, then it's settled. If GraphCast stays on board today, then it's happening, period. We're locked. Screw what literally any other model says.

https://www.pilotonline.com/2023/11/16/weather-forecasts-may-be-quicker-and-more-accurate-thanks-to-google-ai/#:~:text=In research published in Science,than the current gold standard.

Interesting,  will be fun to see how it does with our little event.

 

[Timmy]

Pretty significant improvements on the icon.

 

icon looks nice 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Pretty significant improvements on the icon.

 

icon looks nice 

We have not lost the ICON! Andrew would be so proud right now. 

[MossMan]

Currently 33 degrees. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 hours ago, Doinko said:

Graphcast looks good!

The 00z GraphCast not backing down at all!

 

[Mid Valley Duck]

Icon isn’t as ridiculously cold as last nights but definitely way better than the 6z

[Kolk1604]

GFS looks better