January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

LOL that'll change.
Watch. That precip south will move up (it always does). Plus a few other snow makers that'll pop up over the next few days.

Indeed.  I think we will have snow.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

And of course it culminates with the east coast getting some snowstorm, that's always the endgame 

This is not a snow pattern here. Lol. Just a lot of wind.

Deep cyclones phasing and cutting west of the apps never brings snow here unless there’s a frigid airmass in place in-situ (which there isn’t). It’ll warm up and rain then get cold/dry.

I’m optimistic about late month, though.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

The -NAO block here looks like a PNW weather weenie getting bent over.

Should we...censor this...?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

00z Euro looks virtually identical to January 1998.

Still a chance however that it ends up more like February 1998.

A lot colder than Jan 1998 though.  At least up here.

[Corncob]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

LOL that'll change.
Watch. That precip south will move up (it always does). Plus a few other snow makers that'll pop up over the next few days.

Not to mention that the sno-king line up to Arlington is often rife with convergence zone snow where none had been predicted. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

WINTER IS CANCELLED

Weird time to post this with all models showing  a lot of lowland snow.

[Phishy Wx]

whats KING JMA saying? haven't looked in a bit

[GHweatherChris]

This chance is essentially over.

[lowlandsnow]

What do you think was a worse rug pull 2024 or 2020?

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Corncob said:

Not to mention that the sno-king line up to Arlington is often rife with convergence zone snow where none had been predicted. 

The models are notorious for underdoing snow going into cold.

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

The odds of crippling Ice storm increasing?? I don't want another Feb 2021 event. 

[westcoastexpat]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Weird time to post this with all models showing  a lot of lowland snow.

Not the ECMWF ...

[Cloud]

What are people’s opinion on this? Is there time for a turnaround or are we now at a point of no return with these solutions? This was a gut punch. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

whats KING JMA saying? haven't looked in a bit

It was fine.  Only a 12z run on that.  At least on Weatherbell.

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, Cloud said:

What are people’s opinion on this? Is there time for a turnaround or are we now at a point of no return with these solutions? This was a gut punch. 

Its over

[SeanNyberg]

Just now, westcoastexpat said:

Not the ECMWF ...

It never does this far out. it always holds it back until the day of. This aint our first rodeo! 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said:

Not the ECMWF ...

Lots over SW WA.  I was talking in general for the Western Lowlands.

[Snownerd3000]

Watching tonight's models.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot colder than Jan 1998 though.  At least up here.

SEA pulled off 31/24 and 29/23 with that. Pretty much exactly what the Euro shows now and probably on the colder end of what we should expect for this event at this point.

[snow_wizard]

This is the ECMWF.  Lots of snow.

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Kona low still there.  That's usually an ace in the hole for us.

with a massive -nao like is modeled?

[lowlandsnow]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

What are people’s opinion on this? Is there time for a turnaround or are we now at a point of no return with these solutions? This was a gut punch. 

The trend is definitely not our friend. Just terrible.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

A lot colder than Jan 1998 though.  At least up here.

At the rate the models are pulling back tonight, I’d hate to see how they look in a couple more days.

Trust me, it’s as painful for me as it is for you. I’d like nothing more to see an historic arctic airmass in the mid-winter. Bright sunshine, snow on the ground, brisk east wind, afternoon temps around 20, lows in the single digits to around zero. I was dressed in Osh-Kosh and hadn’t even started kindergarten yet last time we had something like that down here.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Its over

Go play with Rinaldo Chris! 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Cloud said:

What are people’s opinion on this? Is there time for a turnaround or are we now at a point of no return with these solutions? This was a gut punch. 

Looks bad. Clear continuation of a days-long trend to make the Pacific more progressive. Theoretically it's a volatile situation, and there is still considerable spread amongst ensembles so it could go either way. But we wanted to see something different tonight...

[Perturbed Member]

At this point I am hoping Tuesday night produces results down here. 

On paper what the Euro shows for Saturday does work out for many of us but it is just one more nod towards the GFS away from being a total nonevent. The 12z Euro had this low coming in at the OR/CA border and it shifted it up like 250 miles on the 00z. It turns out the weather is not in fact a function of the Euro's output. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

SEA pulled off 31/24 and 29/23 with that. Pretty much exactly what the Euro shows now and probably on the colder end of what we should expect for this event at this point.

Well see.  I still think this month will end up a lot colder overall.

[SeanNyberg]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

This is the ECMWF.  Lots of snow.

If that were to happen, those gaps would be filled as well. I can't count how many times I've seen this leading up to an event and it starts with bleeding in maybe 1" the day before, and then finally updates it with 5+ inches as it snows on the HRR

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Rich Marriot and Cliff Mass would be having a celebratory toast right now if they were awake.

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is not a snow pattern here. Lol. Just a lot of wind.

Deep cyclones phasing and cutting west of the apps never brings snow here unless there’s a frigid airmass in place in-situ (which there isn’t). It’ll warm up and rain then get cold/dry.

I’m optimistic about late month, though.

schedule me a noreasta in PA on 1/30.  thanks

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

What are people’s opinion on this? Is there time for a turnaround or are we now at a point of no return with these solutions? This was a gut punch. 

Personally after that that awful model suite it's probably over for us, but at the same time I don't recall how potent the February 2021 airmass was here and it seems a meet in the middle scenario here would be a somewhat similar if not less potent event 

[Tanis Leach]

24 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

How do you define "good" events? Salem has had some nice snowfalls since 2014.

True, 2021 is questionably good. 

 

Arctic blast (-12C or high 26 or lower)

6"+ of snow on the ground. 2021 may have hit this. 

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Go play with Rinaldo Chris! 

He is hiding, he knows the truth....

[snow_wizard]

I'm shocked by the negativity on here.

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm shocked by the negativity on here.

y

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looks bad. Clear continuation of a days-long trend to make the Pacific more progressive. Theoretically it's a volatile situation, and there is still considerable spread amongst ensembles so it could go either way. But we wanted to see something different tonight...

I wanted this to work out so bad for all of us. I want historic cold. A good true arctic blast. Maybe some day. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Personally after that that awful model suite it's probably over for us, but at the same time I don't recall how potent the February 2021 airmass was here and it seems a meet in the middle scenario here would be a somewhat similar if not less potent event 

I wouldn't claim yet that it's "over" but the somber mood is more warranted than not...

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm shocked by the negativity on here.

I really, really hope you're right Jim.

[Weiner Warrior]

We still have the WRF

[Frontal Snowsquall]

11 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Is the Graphcast out yet?

 

Not yet but it will be soon.