January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Should work out fine for parts of NW OR. Similar to the ICON.

Lol exactly why you give analysis after the runs done. I’m sure precip would extend further north than what’s shown but this is a SW WA/NW OR special. 

[SeanNyberg]

Friday night into Saturday: Temps look to hold the same from the 00z run across the board.

Euro is just bringing in the air a little later.

[Snownerd3000]

8 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

That's probably for the best.

The raccoons watching this convo

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

This will fill in. It always does. 

Sometimes. Not always. Dry arctic fronts are actually quite common.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe... but trending drier.  

I've never gotten more than a dusting from an arctic front in Seattle so it seems accurate to me. 

[Cloud]

Wind advisory is up. 

[TT-SEA]

Late Friday afternoon... 850mb temps.   Slightly warmer than 00Z run.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

I've never gotten more than a dusting from an arctic front in Seattle so it seems accurate to me. 

And how long have you been here?

[TT-SEA]

Saturday system also going south... almost identical to 00Z run.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe... but trending drier.  

Yea I'm aligned with you. I think it's going to be a dry blast with some potential for some overriding system later. I just don't see 1-2 inches of snow coming in with the artic air.

[SeanNyberg]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe... but trending drier.  

The Euro is... yes. But experience has shown that these things tend to have a hard time picking up light precipitation that can add up quickly.

I know that you know that. Or that you know that I think that. LOL. So when I comment on your posts, I'm not directing it at you, I'm just adding some experiential context for the 300+ guests who are following along.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

Maybe Andrew back will help Oregon posters bring it back too.

I'm going to do everything I can! 

[BLI snowman]

Gonna be an icy run.

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

And how long have you been here?

I'm on my 11th winter here. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol exactly why you give analysis after the runs done. I’m sure precip would extend further north than what’s shown but this is a SW WA/NW OR special. 

This is a great point. It’s interesting to look at the difference between the commentary as a run comes out versus how the run actually ends up. There’s usually a lot of inaccurate speculation. Not that it’s a bad thing, but real time  commentary should be taken with a grain of salt.

[TT-SEA]

Gorge outflow in full effect by Saturday afternoon... Seattle is warmer than Portland.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

[GHweatherChris]

Everyone is gonna run out of lipstick if you keep it up......

[SeanNyberg]

00z Euro still pushing Seattle into the teens on Saturday.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I've never gotten more than a dusting from an arctic front in Seattle so it seems accurate to me. 

I’ve lucked out with a run of non-dry runs in recent years but if I’d kept strict records and tallied them up I’m pretty sure dry arctic fronts are the most common type. Or maybe the disappointment factor just makes them seem that way. Regardless, they are quite common.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SeanNyberg said:

00z Euro still pushing Seattle into the teens on Saturday.

Well... around 30 for a high that day though.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SeanNyberg said:

00z Euro still pushing Seattle into the teens on Saturday.

Wish we could get on board with that fun. I’d take that over ice.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe... but trending drier.  

GFS trended wet and it has led the way. 

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’ve lucked out with a run of non-dry runs in recent years but if I’d kept strict records and tallied them up I’m pretty sure dry arctic fronts are the most common type. Or maybe the disappointment factor just makes them seem that way. Regardless, they are quite common.

Even the ones with moisture tend to move quickly so it ends up being like a 10 minute burst of snow. I know there is a history of them delivering more but this doesn't look like one of those instances. 

[TT-SEA]

Snow getting very close to the Seattle area on Saturday afternoon but this is the farthest northward extent.   Precip is done by Saturday evening.  

[SeanNyberg]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Well... around 30 for a high that day though.  

But that changes nothing regarding what I posted.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

That's brutal. ZR all the way down to Corvallis, this is one situation I root for the warm nose. In 2021 the low level airmass was able to overpower the warm nose for about 24 hours of ICE and this is dangerously close to that. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

Even the ones with moisture tend to move quickly so it ends up being like a 10 minute burst of snow. I know there is a history of them delivering more but this doesn't look like one of those instances. 

Even when they do bring snow the main show is inevitably later. The only exception I can think of is Dec 1990 in Seattle.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

GFS trended wet and it has led the way. 

For when?    The arctic front snow looks about the same as it has on previous runs.  

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I'm on my 11th winter here. 

December 26, 2021 and February 3, 2019 were a couple of pretty snowy arctic fronts for Seattle. Widespread 2-4" in the city with more in the favored areas to the north and east. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Interesting to see some posters so active again now that the runs have more or less gone to sh*t. At least compared to where they were a couple days ago.

[LowerGarfield]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm going to do everything I can! 

Did you get snow recently with that advisory or warning the other day?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

But that changes nothing regarding what I posted.

I know... but we were talking about highs in the teens a couple days ago so just clarifying.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Snow getting very close to the Seattle area on Saturday afternoon but this is the farthest northward extent.   Precip is done by Saturday evening.  

Looks good for the Raccoon guy. 

[Snownerd3000]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Gorge outflow in full effect by Saturday afternoon... Seattle is warmer than Portland.  

 

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

If this is the results I'm ok being warmer and not stuck in freezing rain

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

December 26, 2021 and February 3, 2019 were a couple of pretty snowy arctic fronts for Seattle. Widespread 2-4" in the city with more in the favored areas to the north and east. 

Tough to get snow in a greenhouse. Gotta preserve those winter blooms  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

For when?    The arctic front snow looks about the same as it has on previous runs.  

Its been more wet than EURO for a few days now. Since it has been largely correct for this event I'm figuring it wins here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

Did you get snow recently with that advisory or warning the other day?

Yes, we got 2.5" total on Saturday, 2" in the morning and then another half inch in the evening. Hoping for some decent snow Tuesday-Thursday, we'll see. 

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Saturday system also going south... almost identical to 00Z run.  

This is the most encouraging thing about this run. Would be bad news if it shifted the weekend system way north like the GFS, even though that would give pepto to Puget Sound folks. 

More people have a better chance to see a decent period of cold and snow with models showing this scenario 96-120 hours out.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Interesting to see some posters so active again now that the runs have more or less gone to sh*t. At least compared to where they were a couple days ago.

Getting closer to the event.   I always love tracking the details as an event approaches no matter which way its going.