January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Doinko]

21 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Taking a look at all the 00z runs for the weekend.

The ICON, UKMET and Euro are team suppressed and cold, there is actually very good agreement between these 3.

 

GFS is very progressive and spreads precip way north and the GEM tries to strike some kind of balance between the others and the GFS. 

Wonder if we could get something like the GEM farther south, that would be really cool. The EURO, UKMET and ICON look great though

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But the ECMWF was perfect with the upcoming event even 7 days out... why doubt it for the middle of next week?  

And we still don't even know which model will look best on Friday looking back 7 days.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I believe 1980 was a Nino be it much weaker than this one. It h ad the very PDX-gorge centric event and then a very cold blast to end the month. 

December 1979 was also very mild. One of the warmest on record pre-2010.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Ice age is coming. 

Pretty amazing that next winter already looks like extra aces will be in the deck.  Strong Nino to Nina transition and positive QBO.

[SnarkyGoblin]

33 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It’s quite obvious the track of the system is not yet resolved. A little wobble will be significant. Very much still up for grabs. 

Bumping this post.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

December 1979 was also very mild. One of the warmest on record pre-2010.

At least this far south we have not had a blast that cold in January since. SLE hit single digits and Silver Falls had a low of 3 and 1 with no snow cover. Pretty impressive. 

[The Winter Warlock]

Angry flying cold noodle on the way. We will see if it holds together.

[LowerGarfield]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...the GFS buried us.

Team North America failed us. I hated the UK Met for my location but UKMet is not great. Euro following is bad fit my location. Major rug pull here.

[Slushy Inch]

Wind really picking. That is one of the fastest cold fronts I’ve seen on radar.

[Blizzard777]

Ocean Shores gusting 58 and sustained 39

Federal Way gusting 23 

light just flickered 

PSE outage map 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I believe 1980 was a Nino be it much weaker than this one. It h ad the very PDX-gorge centric event and then a very cold blast to end the month. 

Jan 2004 also almost pulled off a second blast later in the month. That was a fail that's rarely talked about, partly because of everything that happened beginning of the month, and also because it was overshadowed by the massive fail the following January.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Regardless I'm just glad it 's going to get cold, probably snow, and stay cold for at least 4 days.  Beyond that...we shall see.

That's all we can ever hope for. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Jan 2004 also almost pulled off a second blast later in the month. That was a fail that's rarely talked about, partly because of everything that happened beginning of the month, and also because it was overshadowed by the massive fail the following January.

Oh yeah, I remember that. Getting out of baseball practice in the gym at Chemeketa and heading to the Computer LAB to check the GFS. I think Bellingham got a little outflow IRCC, but it was a sad bust down here. 

[Weiner Warrior]

This would be a nice compromise 

[Blizzard777]

Active weather

[Slushy Inch]

That is some wicked high velocity 

[The Winter Warlock]

Oh, she’ll hold together. Cruising right along like a freight train.. Fluid dynamics are fun.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF for Seattle and Portland.

[Cloud]

The end of the Euro is interesting as it gives us another shot at cooler than normal temps. Let see how that evolves. 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh yeah, I remember that. Getting out of baseball practice in the gym at Chemeketa and heading to the Computer LAB to check the GFS. I think Bellingham got a little outflow IRCC, but it was a sad bust down here. 

Just checked...even BLI flopped. I didn't know about weather models back then, I just remember seeing a couple of days below freezing 5-6 days out on TV or online somewhere. And then they disappeared the next day.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Jan 2004 also almost pulled off a second blast later in the month. That was a fail that's rarely talked about, partly because of everything that happened beginning of the month, and also because it was overshadowed by the massive fail the following January.

I remember mark briefly putting mid-20s for highs at the end of the 7-day and mentioning we may go back into the freezer, after the early month stuff.

[AbbyJr]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Didn't expect it to work out that well.  Wow!

Most of the cold looks to be ejected over the pacific. Then it looks like the ridge may get undercut after hour 240. It's an interesting solution but I wouldn't get excited about it yet.

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I believe 1980 was a Nino be it much weaker than this one. It h ad the very PDX-gorge centric event and then a very cold blast to end the month. 

Mid February 1980 also had a nice forgotten snowstorm in SW WA from a stalled out arctic boundary. Great winter here.

Edited January 9 by BLI snowman

[The Winter Warlock]

PSE is going to lose a lot of transformers in an hour…

[Snownerd3000]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh yeah, I remember that. Getting out of baseball practice in the gym at Chemeketa and heading to the Computer LAB to check the GFS. I think Bellingham got a little outflow IRCC, but it was a sad bust down here. 

It did. Think the islands, Port Angeles and hood canal did well then. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, The Winter Warlock said:

PSE is going to lose a lot of transformers in an hour…

DON'T SAY THAT. I AM WORKING LATE TONIGHT

[Blizzard777]

2 minutes ago, The Winter Warlock said:

PSE is going to lose a lot of transformers in an hour…

Generator on standby

all devices being charged and backup batteries to my cooler

 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, The Winter Warlock said:

PSE is going to lose a lot of transformers in an hour…

Hope not. But it’s gross out right now. Pushing 50 here and rain pouring 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I remember mark briefly putting mid-20s for highs at the end of the 7-day and mentioning we may go back into the freezer, after the early month stuff.

You know the GFS must have been showing something tasty if he dared to do that. 

Though from what I hear, younger Mark was a more audacious fellow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Mid February 1980 also had a nice forgotten snowstorm in SW WA that's never talked about, from a stalled out arctic boundary. Great winter here.

Just looked at that blast again (January). SLE got down to 8. Silver Falls had consecutive lows of 6,3,1,5, pretty incredible for no snow cover. I'd take something like that again. Even with no snow. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, The Winter Warlock said:

PSE is going to lose a lot of transformers in an hour…

Wondering if gusts could hit 60 with cold front 

[lowlandsnow]

A lot of really cold members

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Mid February 1980 also had a nice forgotten snowstorm in SW WA from a stalled out arctic boundary. Great winter here.

I see KVUO pulled off a 35/27 on 2/15. Not bad!

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF for Seattle and Portland.

Worth mentioning that for Thursday we’ll continue to drop in temps as the day move along and be in the freezer by 5pm. So 4-5 days worth of cold here. Also for Friday and Saturday we’ll see if we can get below 27 for the daytime max. That has been the standard for quite some time now. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You know the GFS must have been showing something tasty if he dared to do that. 

Though from what I hear, younger Mark was a more audacious fellow.

He used to be one of us. But lost his soul somewhere along the way. Perhaps in a maze of EPS maps.

Edited January 9 by Cascadia_Wx

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS snow on Saturday morning for all members... gives idea on position of moisture.   EPS has 50 members.  And operational for comparison.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS snow on Saturday morning for all members... gives idea on position of moisture.   EPS has 50 members.

A lot of those area weaker and way south. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A lot of those area weaker and way south. 

Euro is all in on weaker and south 

[Mid Valley Duck]

EPS is coalescing on the Oregon coast for landfall for the weekend system