January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Front Ranger]

Monumental turnaround for the positive the past 24 hours for our NW OR friends.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows its 15 degrees and snowing in Portland on Saturday morning.  

[SnarkyGoblin]

Now we just need this weekend's really strong low shown on the last couple of gfs runs to slam in the sweet spot for both OR and WA for both cold and snow compromise.

Anyone care to guess what that sweet spot of the low might be with the predicted flow (w) ? Is it at the Columbia river?

My gut feeling for this thing feels like an over performer.  Last I looked, nws has the odds for >4 inches of snow at 10%.  Has to be higher than that right now.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Great to see the Euro improving in the home stretch. That’s less than 96 hours away.

Euro is DEADLY at this range

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Speaking of trees,  there was a huge fir 2 Miles down the road from my house that got cut down last year because the owner thought it would fall. Little did the fukin idiot know it was the largest Doug fir in Washington state on private property! 11.8 feet diameter at breast height.  I was sick to my stomach. 

UGH

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Great to see the Euro improving in the home stretch. That’s less than 96 hours away.

Just enough time for a last-minute northerly trend before the 48-hour lock-in!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Great to see the Euro improving in the home stretch. That’s less than 96 hours away.

Let's improve it slightly more and get @Mid Valley Duck and @Requiem a snow storm too!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, SnarkyGoblin said:

Now we just need this weekend's really strong low shown on the last couple of gfs runs to slam in the sweet spot for both OR and WA for both cold and snow compromise.

Anyone care to guess what that sweet spot of the low might be with the predicted flow (w) ? Is it at the Columbia river?

My gut feeling for this thing feels like an over performer.  Last I looked, nws has the odds for >4 inches of snow at 10%.  Has to be higher than that right now.

Historical around Astoria is most likely spot for landfall.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Speaking of trees,  there was a huge fir 2 Miles down the road from my house that got cut down last year because the owner thought it would fall. Little did the fukin idiot know it was the largest Doug fir in Washington state on private property! 11.8 feet diameter at breast height.  I was sick to my stomach. 

I’m surprised that was even legal.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Euro is DEADLY at this range

Even DEADLIER.

[TT-SEA]

[Cold Snap]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

ECMWF has trended colder for three runs now.  GEFS way colder than the GFS.  The GFS has to get colder on future runs.

Hopefully it still stays snowy though. It would be nice to get in on that weekend snow storm.

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Looks like a brief switch to a wintry mix but it turns back to snow afterwards

[Weiner Warrior]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I feel the precip is further north than earlier runs

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

At least we get a few scraps. 

[Slushy Inch]

Strong cold front incoming. One Euro run had 50mph gusts with it.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Trended a little north on this run... 

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Speaking of trees,  there was a huge fir 2 Miles down the road from my house that got cut down last year because the owner thought it would fall. Little did the fukin idiot know it was the largest Doug fir in Washington state on private property! 11.8 feet diameter at breast height.  I was sick to my stomach. 

Crushing. Why would anyone, assuming they have taken one glance at the tree, do that?

[Cloud]

It’s quite obvious the track of the system is not yet resolved. A little wobble will be significant. Very much still up for grabs. 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like more moving in too?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Weiner Warrior said:

I feel the precip is further north than earlier runs

Almost exactly the same northward extent as the 12Z run.    But extends farther south.  

[RaleighHillsRunner]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows its 15 degrees and snowing in Portland on Saturday morning.  

Sure would beat this balmy 49 degree rain/wind were experiencing currently.

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Trended a little north on this run... 

Frozen ducks on the menu 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m surprised that was even legal.

The guy got death threats, it was a big deal around here. It was totally legal because of where it was. Sad thing is she was still healthy with no issues but the top was blown out in 1962 but still was 180 feet tall. I posted a pic with me standing in front of it a few years ago.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Almost exactly the same northward extent as the 12Z run.    But extends farther south.  

I was going to say, looks like the snow goes further south, ice makes it to @TigerWoodsLibido.

[smerfylicious]

Good trends, just really would like to see that lobe push a little more west and gimme some arctic front accumulation

[OysterPrintout]

Heroic effort to hang on to snow for like 24 straight hours in PDX on this run LOCK IT IN

[Phishy Wx]

bummer we're going to lose our snow cover from tonight tomorrow.  would like to have some snow on the ground before the blast later this week so we can challenge some cold records.  Record is -7 on Friday and local NBC channel is calling for -7, so a tie.  if we can get some snow and clear skies I bet that drops by 10 degrees at least.   feeling however, high, dry and frigid. like a freezer.  glad I winterized

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run also hammers my location with over 0.50" of ice. Yikes. Got close to that in February 2021 and December 2022 after going a decade with no significant icing events. 

[Weiner Warrior]

Ugh.. reverse psychology didn't work. I need the GFS to run after the EURO at night to help me sleep.

[TT-SEA]

Here is precip loop for the entire event... sort of like a radar approximation.  

[Perturbed Member]

00z vs 12z Euro for the weekend. It actually seems to drastically reduce the precip down the valley. Not a dramatic reduction for PDX though and the northern extent of the precip hasn't changed too much here either. 

 

[Doinko]

Cold air pushes back down the valley after the snowstorm

[snow_wizard]

I think we need a GFS / ECMWF blend.  Good chance that will happen.

[TT-SEA]

All precip abruptly ends Saturday evening as system zips off to the east.

[MossMan]

I’m on team GFS! 
Go America! 

Edited January 9 by MossMan

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

Looks like I'm slammed with .5-1" of ice. At least most of my trees are gone from my property after 2021

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Crushing. Why would anyone, assuming they have taken one glance at the tree, do that?

Just dip shifts

 There is a book called forest giants of the Pacific northwest and the guy that wrote the book told me all about the tree. He found it after he wrote the book that's how I know it was the largest fir on private property. His name was Robert van pelt. It was also in the top 10 in the state for Doug fir and top 15 in the world. 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF does bring snow a bit further north than the 12z.  Huge differences between the models for an event this close.

[Weiner Warrior]

Just now, MossMan said:

I’m on team GFS! 

It's coming!!