my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids.
I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense.
I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.
Not by the ONI definition (in the post WWII era, at least).
Though 91/92 - 94/95 and 2002/03 - 04/05 were almost exclusively niño flavored in the grand scheme of things.
And 2014/15 - 16/17 all had niño conditions present at some point during boreal winter. Though there was a weak niña anomaly present in summer/fall 2016, which subsequently collapsed in Jan 2017.
00z EPS is legit. I can still see a pathway to cold neutral or weak niña outcome, but those odds are decreasing.
I miss ENSO neutral winters. We are owed a 3-year El Niño after 5 Niñas in 8 years.
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