January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If the gfs is right i will smoke a cigarette backwards and video it. Btw i do not smoke.

[TT-SEA]

And then its raining by Wednesday.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps on Tuesday... ECMWF shows mid level clouds that day and a south wind developing.  

Hopefully we can extend the low level cold but oh well. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If the gfs is right i will smoke a cigarette backwards and video it. Btw i do not smoke.

I've drunkenly done this before. Do not recommend. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What did the lows look like Sunday and Monday?

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Those are some powerful snow bands starting to show up on meso models, Those can dump a few inches of snow very fast.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And then its raining by Wednesday.  

Would have been nice to have a nice over-runner when leaving the cold for a change. These fade outs back to rain without any sort of transition is the worst. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Getting more realistic numbers at this range. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Those are some powerful snow bands starting to show up on meso models, Those can dump a few inches of snow very fast.

Some forum members are going to be very pleasantly surprised tomorrow. I don’t think it will be me though, for some reason my area is being avoided like the plague all of a sudden in the models for tomorrow. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

17 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Let's see if Druncle finally caves. 

I think it will shift slightly south.

[MossMan]

Would give anything for a January 2020 repeat again at this point. We had a few small snowfalls before the big one that month. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Would have been nice to have a nice over-runner when leaving the cold for a change. These fade outs back to rain without any sort of transition is the worst. 

In this case... too much time for the air mass to moderate from Friday through Tuesday before next system arrives.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Would give anything for a January 2020 repeat again at this point. We had a few small snowfalls before the big one that month. 

I could envision you having that much snow on the ground by Friday morning.    Still a chance you wake up to bright sunshine and trees coated in snow on Friday.

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Would have been nice to have a nice over-runner when leaving the cold for a change. These fade outs back to rain without any sort of transition is the worst. 

We haven't been able to pull one of those off in years, they used be very common.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And then its raining by Wednesday.  

Similar to what the GC said last night. Looks like an atmospheric river. Hopefully it’s wrong.

 

 

[MikeInEverett]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Some forum members are going to be very pleasantly surprised tomorrow. I don’t think it will be me though, for some reason my area is being avoided like the plague all of a sudden in the models for tomorrow. 

Sounds like you’re trying to reverse jinx yourself!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Some forum members are going to be very pleasantly surprised tomorrow. I don’t think it will be me though, for some reason my area is being avoided like the plague all of a sudden in the models for tomorrow. 

You will do good, way better than my area. My guess you will have 8 inches on the ground By sat afternoon.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

24 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Feeling ok about this in PDX. Worst case scenario looks like some flurries and cold weather but lot of room for improvement and wouldn't take much for some Feb 2014 vibes.

After the dry Arctic Blast earlier in December there was a real possibility it was going to be dry also. But then at the last minute moisture showed up and then boom! We got 3 snowstorms in 3 consecutive days. 

[Phishy Wx]

getting some bonus snow here.  probably a 1/4" the past hour I was in a meeting.  must be convective upsloping 

[SnowWillarrive]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And then its raining by Wednesday.  

We never get good overrunning snow anymore

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I could envision you having that much snow on the ground by Friday morning.    Still a chance you wake up to bright sunshine and trees coated in snow on Friday.

I will have everything crossed on my body that I can possibly cross for that to happen!! 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You will do good, way better than my area. My guess you will have 8 inches on the ground By sat afternoon.

Wow... that is a bold guess!   I am going to have to take the under on that one.  

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

We haven't been able to pull one of those off in years, they used be very common.

Wouldn’t it be amazing to experience another December 1996 over-runner again…That was a BEAST!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My guess is the models are going to throw around a lot of different solutions for early/mid next week. 

[TT-SEA]

Talk about a pattern flip on the 12Z ECMWF. by later next week...

[KingstonWX]

So where does this non-event fall on the list of greatest rug pulls of all time?

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Sounds like you’re trying to reverse jinx yourself!!

Could just be that I’m still bummed by Saturday’s most likely bust that I’m in a downer mood, but I’m just not feeling it for tomorrow at all other than a few flakes in the air that will melt before the temps drop low enough. Will definitely still be watching the hi-res models though. 

[RaleighHillsRunner]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In this case... too much time for the air mass to moderate from Friday through Tuesday before next system arrives.

FWIW - TWC wants to drop 3-5” Tuesday night down here with a low of 24. A boy can dream.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Talk about a pattern flip on the 12Z ECMWF. by later next week...

I’d rather see that right over us.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Rod going with a significant snow/ice storm for PDX now.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Still no clear victor in the great 2024 January model wars.  I need a new hobby which won't take up so of my time.  Perhaps I'll take to resolving PI.

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My guess is the models are going to throw around a lot of different solutions for early/mid next week. 

For sure.

But the EPS has been trending in the direction the 12Z ECMWF went.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... that is a bold guess!   I am going to have to take the under on that one.  

His area can get blasted with cold showers coming off the straight. And with the colder air and higher snow ratio it adds up fast.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Graphcast is way south. PDX stays completely dry. Salem to Eugene gets clipped.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Perhaps the UKMET will lead the way. 

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Sounds like you’re trying to reverse jinx yourself!!

My gut is telling me that your area might do very well actually!! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What is that ai model showing? 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

His area can get blasted with cold showers coming off the straight. And with the colder air and higher snow ratio it adds up fast.

Just not enough moisture available though for that kind of heavy snow dump.   That was more like the wet arctic front in December 2021 with the low offshore spinning in all kinds of moisture,    But I do think most people will see at least snow falling at some point before late evening tomorrow.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Graphcast is way south. PDX stays completely dry. Salem to Eugene gets clipped.

Time to start tracking Friday-Monday temps.