January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That would freeze your pee pee for sure!!

Road trip!!! 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

I’m thinking some places could get up to 3” in the puget sound area with the arctic front. KOMO news was talking about how there could be some stationary bands of snow set up and someone could score with that.

The nws discussion I just posted was also discussing that 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Well, that's 75 miles of the 350 mile move we need to get something to the Puget Sound. 

Got to start somewhere! Perhaps Snowmizer can do an engine swap and give it some real power!! 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

One possibility is that all the models are converging on the ECMWF scenario which would mean eliminating the crazy south runs as well.   Obviously the models have to hone in on one solution soon here.

Most likely. Looking good for PDX.

[Prairiedog]

23 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow they do not start here till April.

Usually around the first week of Feb/last few days of Jan give or take, they start.  It''s pretty cool listening to them.  Always a herald of spring although a bit of a distant one.  Month after that, the Turkey Vultures show early March and then it's an avalanche of birds coming back.  We have some winter to get through first but will be interesting to see if we go back to a "typical" Nino and how that might affect our migratory friends.  Usually doesn't matter much.  Biorhythms.  Pretty rock solid. 

[Phishy Wx]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Given some of the insane cold spells across the country and other parts of the world in the last few years... it seems silly to assume it wasn't possible here any more.   Of course it is.   Record breaking cold can and will happen in a warming climate.   There might even be a case to be made for more extreme cold events as part of more extreme patterns overall.    Sort of a hollow victory though because it doesn't change anything.  

on the same token, climate patterns can change and maybe they have here somewhat (ie more common triple digit records even on the west side in summer).  With that said, on the opposite side of that token, its becoming harder to get sustained arctic cold blasts on the west side of the Rockies

[AbbyJr]

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Hadn’t checked the NWS discussion today but interesting tidbit on the Arctic front. 

Weird they say Friday when the Arctic front starts moving through on Thursday.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Weird they say Friday when the Arctic front starts moving through on Thursday.

Might be using Zulu time.

[RentonHill]

GFS farther south early on - last 4 runs 

[Mid Valley Duck]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

GFS farther south early on - last 4 runs 

Yep you can tell very early on this will be south of the prior run

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Yep you can tell very early on this will be south of the prior run

It is.  But it's not dry up north either.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gfs finally caving.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

GFS farther south early on - last 4 runs 

Colder. Following the Euro again.

[TT-SEA]

Big changes in terms of low positioning for Friday on the GFS compared to yesterdays runs.   New 18Z run on top.  

[Doinko]

PDX freezes up at 4pm

 

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Weird they say Friday when the Arctic front starts moving through on Thursday.

Must’ve mixed up the days. The NWS sounding bullish on Arctic front snowfall is telling to me though. Doesn’t mean it will happen…but it usually does in these situations. It’s extremely unpredictable. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Yep you can tell very early on this will be south of the prior run

It looks like there's a bit of a CZ, which collapses, leaving behind some moisture though.

[RayRay]

Absolute bummer

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

It is.  But it's not dry up north either.

Yeah Everett showing 0.9" total snow prior with the passage of the arctic front.  Zip after that.  Better than nothing

[TT-SEA]

GFS is not going to cave completely on Saturday.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Must’ve mixed up the days. The NWS sounding bullish on Arctic front snowfall is telling to me though. Doesn’t mean it will happen…but it usually does in these situations. It’s extremely unpredictable. 

Yep. Would be shocking if someone doesn't have 3"+ on the ground by Friday morning.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Up to 46 at PDX. Seems like they overachieve on highs about 95% of the time anymore. All guidance had them in the low 40s today.

[bainbridgekid]

Secondary low still quite far North on the 18z through hour 60.

Tick North of the 12z and mb stronger. Saturday will still be snowy for Seattle on this run.

[CloudJunkie]

I'm super excited for this frozen/sunny weather. Should make for some sparkly landscape photos, even without snow.

[Winterdog]

2 minutes ago, RayRay said:

Absolute bummer

Not absolute just a minor bummer.  There will be more chances for snow next winter

[Gummy]

Conflicting reports!

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Secondary low still quite far North on the 18z through hour 60.

Tick North of the 12z and mb stronger. Saturday will still be snowy for Seattle on this run.

Comes ashore around Astoria it appears.

[bainbridgekid]

Snow still reaches the King/Snohomish County line Saturday on this run.

 

[iFred]

3 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Yeah Everett showing 0.9" total snow prior with the passage of the arctic front.  Zip after that.  Better than nothing

Moisture still has to overcome dry air. Most likely nothing hits the ground.

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS is not going to cave completely on Saturday.

Not even close.  That is crazy 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Gummy said:

Conflicting reports!

South on Friday... slightly south on Saturday.    Its caving very slowly.   

[Christensen87]

GFS still OK for Seattle, but each run is less and less which obviously is no good. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Snow still reaches the King/Snohomish County line Saturday on this run.

 

That would bury the snowmizer ranch.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z just a hair south on Saturday, amazing it is clearly seeing something. I refuses to cave all the way for some reason.

[RentonHill]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

Moisture still has to overcome dry air. Most likely nothing hits the ground.

That is a greasy thing to say Mr.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Snow still reaches the King/Snohomish County line Saturday on this run.

 

And if that secondary low strengthens more…Watch out for much of western Wa! 

[RayRay]

At least we can rely on HAARP to make some snow since big government will give us some…

[Blizzard777]

39* and dribbling 

Bring me arctic air and clear skies and or snow……done with dribbles