January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TT-SEA]

00Z run last night... 12Z run... new 18Z run. 

 

[bainbridgekid]

Friday night / Saturday snowfall trend the last 4 GFS runs. Clear slow trend South but no cave yet to the other models way South in Oregon.

 

[Winterdog]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Snow still reaches the King/Snohomish County line Saturday on this run.

But I live north of there!!! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[TT-SEA]

For Seattle... 7.6 inches on 00Z run... 5.2 inches on 12Z run... and now 3.1 inches on 18Z run.

Its not collapsing.   Its slowly caving.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, RayRay said:

At least we can rely on HAARP to make some snow since big government will give us some…

Time to charge your phone Double R Ray! 

[ShawniganLake]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

For Seattle... 7.6 inches on 00Z run... 5.2 inches on 12Z run... and now 3.1 inches on 18Z run.

Its not collapsing.   Its slowly caving.

Like slowly ripping a bandage off.   

[TT-SEA]

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

For Seattle... 7.6 inches on 00Z run... 5.2 inches on 12Z run... and now 3.1 inches on 18Z run.

Its not collapsing.   Its slowly caving.

I expect most models to either cave to the Euro or the Euro to slightly shift north. The shift of some models this suite was interesting-- that being said I still think the sweet spot for the weekend is the central valley.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

I expect most models to either cave to the Euro or the Euro to slightly shift north. The shift of some models this suite was interesting-- that being said I still think the sweet spot for the weekend is the central valley.

Seems like the best bet right now.   The time for big jumps is over.   Now its small adjustments to meet in the middle.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

For Seattle... 7.6 inches on 00Z run... 5.2 inches on 12Z run... and now 3.1 inches on 18Z run.

Its not collapsing.   Its slowly caving.

Yup. What a difference between yesterday 18z and today 18z. Joke of a model tbh. Two years in a row this happened on the GFS. What ever "upgrade" they did made it a lot worse

[MossMan]

The next NAM will show an Ocean Shores landfall! 

[Mid Valley Duck]

Gotta hand it to you Seattle folks, there is no quit in you despite overwhelming evidence you are going to get skunked.

[MossMan]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yup. What a difference between yesterday 18z and today 18z. Joke of a model tbh. Two years in a row this happened on the GFS. What ever "upgrade" they did made it a lot worse

I would be thrilled with a 2.8” accumulation at this stage!  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Gotta hand it to you Seattle folks, there is no quit in you despite overwhelming evidence you are going to get skunked.

Our turn will come soon enough with a raging SSW. But honestly I wasn't expecting much this year and was happy with looking forward to next year. 

[Requiem]

Ow... by any indication this'll be further south next run 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Gotta hand it to you Seattle folks, there is no quit in you despite overwhelming evidence you are going to get skunked.

https://youtu.be/E_3C-vsPLII?si=Lmc-2QM86Vhqiuhi

 

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Gotta hand it to you Seattle folks, there is no quit in you despite overwhelming evidence you are going to get skunked.

I wouldn't say that. Decent chance many of them get something tomorrow evening.

[Front Ranger]

GFS also still a fair amount warmer than Euro days 3-4.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yup. What a difference between yesterday 18z and today 18z. Joke of a model tbh. Two years in a row this happened on the GFS. What ever "upgrade" they did made it a lot worse

One thing to keep in mind when the models show this. Your talking about a once in 50 or 100 year storm here with 20 inches in Seattle with one storm so chances for that to happen was maybe 1%. Even out here a storm bigger than 15 inches at once is very rare.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Comes ashore around Astoria it appears.

Somebody called this exact track like 2-3 days ago when everything was diverging…can’t remember who lol, but kudos if it hits  

[Winterdog]

2 minutes ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Somebody called this exact track like 2-3 days ago when everything was diverging…can’t remember who lol, but kudos if it hits  

That was Snowmizer I think.  A  hundred miles north of there would be nicer.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Somebody called this exact track like 2-3 days ago when everything was diverging…can’t remember who lol, but kudos if it hits  

I said between Astoria and Long beach.

[Deweydog]

I don’t think the low position is all that important. This is more about the lift/interaction associated with the low level air mass.

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t think the low position is all that important. This is more about the lift/interaction associated with the low level air mass.

I know analogs only go so far as to predictive accuracy, but would you say there are any semi-recent events that this upcoming one could emulate?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Deweydog said:

I don’t think the low position is all that important. This is more about the lift/interaction associated with the low level air mass.

I can see even with the Astoria land fall the precip might really struggle overcoming this dry and cold air up in the sound area.

[Winterdog]

Big overrunning event on Wednesday looks to be all rain for western Washington per the GFS.  I have to believe it will start out as snow in many places.  Crazy GFS is usually calling for snow in all marginal cases but not this time

[Timmy]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t think the low position is all that important. This is more about the lift/interaction associated with the low level air mass.

Gfs is about 6-7 mb stronger than gem and euro

[sherwoodor]

so how many more replies until part III?

[iFred]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For Seattle... 7.6 inches on 00Z run... 5.2 inches on 12Z run... and now 3.1 inches on 18Z run.

Its not collapsing.   Its slowly caving.

Got this candid photo of you telling children that Santa isn't real too. The things in life that you take pleasure in.

[CloudJunkie]

Getting a rain/sleet mix in Lakewood just now @ 40 degrees. 925 is 31 degrees.

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Big overrunning event on Wednesday looks to be all rain for western Washington per the GFS.  I have to believe it will start out as snow in many places.  Crazy GFS is usually calling for snow in all marginal cases but not this time

Models are always too quick to scour out the cold air. 

[iFred]

Just now, MossMan said:

Models are always too quick to scour out the cold air. 

Flip side is that the sunny days will moderate the airmass pretty quickly.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 hours ago, Prairiedog said:

He has flip flopped on this more than a hotdog with too much slippery mustard on it.  I like Rod but he's been all over the place.  I'm sure you've seen his other "updates".  One day he had our coldest day at 35 for a high then in the 40's shortly after that.  I'm glad he's back to a colder solution but holy cow batman.  I'm not faulting him as this has been a challenging forecast but he's been all over the place. 

It’s a hard forecast. Models are all over the place. Both him and Mark have snow/ice for PDX Friday into Saturday. When they’re both onboard it usually happens. Just how much snow and/ice we get remains to be seen. Rod seems to favor the GFS though.

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Gfs is about 6-7 mb stronger than gem and euro

It’s not irrelevant, but the north side dynamics with the system are going to be more dependent on mid level shenanigans. For instance, this about when frontogenesis was really getting going on 2/6/14. It’s not a perfect analog since that was considerably deeper air mass…

[Snownerd3000]

Here's hoping Druncle Sam is right with that low position.  Really close to the money spot for the PS.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

Flip side is that the sunny days will moderate the airmass pretty quickly.

And not having any snow on the ground. And no wind from outflow.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Highway 18 is stopped for a manhunt? Somebody was robbed at gunpoint? Saw some stuff on twitter but don't know if it is legit.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s not irrelevant, but the north side dynamics with the system are going to be more dependent on mid level shenanigans. For instance, this about when frontogenesis was really getting going on 2/6/14. It’s not a perfect analog since that was considerably deeper air mass…

Here is what happened.