January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

That is pretty encouraging, at least near HIO that would suggest pretty much all snow. I'm west of HIO so I would expect to do fine. 

How do these look for SLE or PDX? It looks like the Euro mostly spares WA county but does try to warm nose PDX for a bit. 

Yeah, just to the NE of Hillsboro here so hoping to stay mostly snow. Glad it looks like we won't see much ZR if any.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Gfs really caved to a possible snowy solution for some areas. Next week will look much different in the model world than it does now.

Snow looks very unlikely but it’s looking more likely that some fairly significant icing may occur down this way.

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, just to the NE of Hillsboro here so hoping to stay mostly snow. Glad it looks like we won't see much ZR if any.

Yeah I’m just north of Beaverton so I don’t I’m going to be spared this time around. Vancouver to longview looks good for 10 inches or so.

OLM will get 2 inches

[Rustysprocket]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, just to the NE of Hillsboro here so hoping to stay mostly snow. Glad it looks like we won't see much ZR if any.

Fine line between snow and sleet for SW Beaverton and Tigard to my eye.  I don't want to hear the hiss of another sleet storm.  

[Olive1010]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, just to the NE of Hillsboro here so hoping to stay mostly snow. Glad it looks like we won't see much ZR if any.

Yeah,same

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Gfs really caved to a possible snowy solution for some areas. Next week will look much different in the model world than it does now.

Worth noting the ECMWF and GEM backed off and so did many of the ensemble members so its not like the GFS is caving to a snowy solution.  This is a small window during the pattern transition and it would have to be lined up perfectly to get snow.  The pattern flips to much warmer right after that regardless of how Tuesday night/Wednesday goes so its not the entire week.  But even with the warmer (non-snowy) solutions there could be an issue with freezing rain... particularly in the Portland area.

[DeepFriedEgg]

How the hell is Woodland, WA only under a WWA? Seems obvious that they are going to get dumped on. 10 inches at least.

[jcmcgaffey]

Been having decent flurries the last hour here and no clouds around. Cold air just squeezing the moisture out. 

[TT-SEA]

Mt Si is putting on quite a show on this beautiful day.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Been having decent flurries the last hour here and no clouds around. Cold air just squeezing the moisture out. 

The snow is falling from a cloud, they can't form out of thin air! 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Gotta feel bad for south metro and Salem. Seems like an annual tradition for them to get skunked.

Also, Albany and Eugene, just brutal icing.

[Olive1010]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

The snow is falling from a cloud, they can't form out of thin air! 

Yes they can, it's called diamond dust

[Phishy Wx]

lol, from a colleague in MEMPHIS, TN

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, Olive1010 said:

Yes they can, it's called diamond dust

Diamond dust is a cloud

[Olive1010]

3 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Been having decent flurries the last hour here and no clouds around. Cold air just squeezing the moisture out. 

Thanks to a temp inversion, diamond dust

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Worth noting the ECMWF and GEM backed off and so did many of the ensemble members so its not like the GFS is caving to a snowy solution.  This is a small window during the pattern transition and it would have to be lined up perfectly to get snow.  The pattern flips to much warmer right after that regardless of how Tuesday night/Wednesday goes so its not the entire week.  But even with the warmer (non-snowy) solutions there could be an issue with freezing rain... particularly in the Portland area.

Oh, i'm back to only looking to hr 120 or so. Anything past that is flip flopping to much really i'd imagine.

[Olive1010]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

Diamond dust is a cloud

No

[Mid Valley Duck]

Think models might be having trouble with QPF. This system has plenty of subtropical support.

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, Olive1010 said:

Thanks to a temp inversion, diamond dust

Ok I see you're in Oregon. The snow that's falling in the Seattle area right now is not diamond dust. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Been having decent flurries the last hour here and no clouds around. Cold air just squeezing the moisture out. 

Lake effect off the sound, you can see it on radar it looks like.

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Lake effect off the sound, you can see it on radar it looks like.

Yes that's what is happening in Seattle, maybe something different is happening in Oregon. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Oh, i'm back to only looking to hr 120 or so. Anything past that is flip flopping to much really i'd imagine.

There will be probably be 50 different scenarios shown for Tuesday night and Wednesday.    But its basically in the 120 hour range now.   Later next week and beyond is much easier to predict than that 24 hour window in the middle of the week.

[thickhog]

4 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Gotta feel bad for south metro and Salem. Seems like an annual tradition for them to get skunked.

Also, Albany and Eugene, just brutal icing.

We’re just in a bad spot for snow for whatever reason. Tough place to be a snow lover. I’ll try to appreciate w/e we get as long as it’s not ZR.

[bainbridgekid]

Everett may pull off a high in the teens today. Really remarkable under total sunshine.

[GHweatherChris]

High potential for tomorrow to be a throwback to the old days overrunning event up here with out the immediate melt off at the end of the precip.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There will be probably be 50 different scenarios shown for Tuesday night and Wednesday.    But its basically in the 120 hour range now.   Later next week and beyond is much easier to predict than that 24 hour window in the middle of the week.

As top tier as this air is i would be amazed if Seattle gets through all this without 1 event. I think mid week will be when it happens. It would not surprise me to see 1/2 or so around Seattle tomorrow and 2 inches in Tacoma to about 4 in Olympia. I bet even Randy gets some flakes.

[TacomaWx]

I swear to god guys it’s not AI generated! Or from 1990! This is has got to be one of the coolest things I’ve ever seen. Got absolutely blasted by that wave BTW lol

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

High potential for tomorrow to be a throwback to the old days overrunning event up here with out the immediate melt off at the end of the precip.

Yep you are in a good spot, i'm hoping it will sneak up the canal, i think it will.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

I swear to god guys it’s not AI generated! Or from 1990! This is has got to be one of the coolest things I’ve ever seen. Got absolutely blasted by that wave BTW lol

Where is that? it looks like it did the day i remember in 1990!!

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Where is that? it looks like it did the day i remember in 1990!!

Ruston waterfront 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

As top tier as this air is i would be amazed if Seattle gets through all this without 1 event. I think mid week will be when it happens. It would not surprise me to see 1/2 or so around Seattle tomorrow and 2 inches in Tacoma to about 4 in Olympia. I bet even Randy gets some flakes.

I think there will be at least flurries up to Seattle tomorrow.   And Tuesday night/Wednesday is the big chance at the end of this cold event.

[MikeInEverett]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Everett may pull off a high in the teens today. Really remarkable under total sunshine.

Just took a walk a bit ago and the wind hitting your face when you’re facing north feels crazy. I can’t imagine how it must be in Bellingham.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I think there will be at least flurries up to Seattle tomorrow.   And Tuesday night/Wednesday is the big chance at the end of this cold event.

Huge ensemble improvements for centralia and oly on the GEFS 

[OysterPrintout]

Dandruff snow here

[Blizzard777]

Puget Sound be smoking !!! Crazy to see and feel like I’m in Chicago 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

These sights are amazing, take it in because you might not see this again for a long time. This is some Cold stuff.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Deweydog]

Gradients have switched at PDX. They have nine hours to make it count and have a shot at a day in the teeeeeeens…

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

wow some of those gfs members make this a small event for seattle south!!

[Phishy Wx]

Good to see (most) everyone embracing the potentially historic cold