January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I liked the 12z GFS. You lead me astray foul Andrew.

#neveragain 

It’s not as good as yesterdays 12z. GFS doesn’t seem as warm as the euro this weekend, but maybe I’m not paying close enough attention. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Think about it this way. Today would be a +6 departure in Seattle at the warmest part of summer. Absurd.

Only because of the low... the high is pretty close to a typical mid-summer day here.   

But its not unpleasant weather at face value.   Its much more comfortable than 105 or -20.   

 

[Dave]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Think about it this way. Today would be a +6 departure in Seattle at the warmest part of summer. Absurd.

What's the all time January record for your location? This has gotta be close.

[Slushy Inch]

I’m back after some nasty food poisoning. Euro looks better?

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

What is the record?

And that low sounds pretty crooked. Seems like something that might be corrected before midnight, or at least mitigated.

DCA record is 79°F. Dulles record is 75°F so that’s already obliterated. Though latter’s period of record is shorter (would have been 80+ if records extended back to 1950s).

Midnight low possible if we can decouple. But downsloping will try and screw that up too.

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I’m back after some nasty food poisoning. Euro looks better?

Are you me? I have been getting destroyed this week with and

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Are you me? I have been getting destroyed this week with and

Sorry to hear that. Luckily it seems to just be 24 hours. Definitely not recovered yet. Worst is that it started late at night, so I went the whole day without coffee and the withdrawal headaches were awful.

[Slushy Inch]

[Phil]

1932 had a nasty January “heatwave” that’d have put DCA and IAD well above 80°F but neither’s period of record goes back that far.

1930s was an ugly decade in many ways.

[MossMan]

 

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Sorry to hear that. Luckily it seems to just be 24 hours. Definitely not recovered yet. Worst is that it started late at night, so I went the whole day without coffee and the withdrawal headaches were awful.

Seems like everyone everywhere is sick right now…Including my kids now, though they don’t seem to have it too badly…But I fear my wife and I’s luck of remaining healthy this winter is about done now…Hopefully we won’t be by the end of the day. 

Edited January 26 by MossMan

[snow_wizard]

Plugging in the numbers from the 12z ECMWF I will end up with a January average of 40.1 IMBY.  Still the second lowest Jan average since 2017.  Better than nothing I guess.

Northern Whatcom County could have a shot at coldest January of the century so far since they won't torch as bad and they were a lot colder with the big cold wave.   Whatcom County having way colder Januarys than the Central Puget Sound was a hallmark of the good old days, so it will be nice to see that on some level, since that is something that hasn't happened this century so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Plugging in the numbers from the 12z ECMWF I will end up with a January average of 40.1 IMBY.  Still the second lowest Jan average since 2017.  Better than nothing I guess.

Northern Whatcom County could have a shot at coldest January of the century so far since they won't torch as bad and they were a lot colder with the big cold wave.   Whatcom County having way colder Januarys than the Central Puget Sound was a hallmark of the good old days, so it will be nice to see that on some level, since that is something that hasn't happened this century so far.

Next year will be better. 

[Slushy Inch]

Cold euro run. Big improvements.

[MossMan]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Cold euro run. Big improvements.

 

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

1932 had a nasty January “heatwave” that’d have put DCA and IAD well above 80°F but neither’s period of record goes back that far.

1930s was an ugly decade in many ways.

Bet you hit 90 by March! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Are you me? I have been getting destroyed this week with and

It must be all the torching, frozen yogurt man.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Cold euro run. Big improvements.

No offense but I’m going to have to look at it myself.

[Cascadia_Wx]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s not as good as yesterdays 12z. GFS doesn’t seem as warm as the euro this weekend, but maybe I’m not paying close enough attention. 

I forgive you Andie  

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

No offense but I’m going to have to look at it myself.

None taken!

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

1932 had a nasty January “heatwave” that’d have put DCA and IAD well above 80°F but neither’s period of record goes back that far.

1930s was an ugly decade in many ways.

Nice to get some historical context at least. The worst kind of warm events are the completely unprecedented ones.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

This is nice. Any moisture? 

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Everyone is sick right 

Seems like everyone everywhere is sick right now…Including my kids now, though they don’t seem to have it too badly…But I fear my wife and I’s luck of remaining healthy this winter is about done now…Hopefully we won’t be by the end of the day. 

Tell me about it.  The only good thing I can say about this is none of us have  from it.  Pretty much every other symptom is there though.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Torches beget blasts.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Tell me about it.  The only good thing I can say about this is none of us have  from it.  Pretty much every other symptom is there though.

I think the only thing that’s gonna make me this week are those temps Sunday-Tuesday.

Sunday and Monday both trended worse on the 12z Euro, but Tuesday is a little better. Really hoping some sort of unexpected deus ex machina shows up to save us from hell.

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Next year will be better. 

Now that we broke the ice on getting a major cold event in January and the favorable ENSO / QBO combo next year we may really nail it.  All it would take is one epic January to get that month's average back much closer to where it should be.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think the only thing that’s gonna make me this week are those temps Sunday-Tuesday.

Sunday and Monday both trended worse on the 12z Euro, but Tuesday is a little better. Really hoping some sort of unexpected deus ex machina shows up to save us from hell.

There is some hope for the cooling to arrive a bit sooner than expected for Tuesday.  Also some well placed rain could help on one of the maxes at least.

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is nice. Any moisture? 

A few spotty light snow showers. 

[AlTahoe]

Make sure to hydrate Phil! Gross 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF made a major move toward the Graph Cast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

A few spotty light snow showers. 

In that kind of pattern I end up with highs in the mid 30s while lowland locations approach 50 with any sun break. 

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Torches beget blasts.

if only it worked that way

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Torches beget blasts.

Which is why we’ve been getting so many top tier arctic blasts the last few decades as our climate torches. Right? Right??

[snow_wizard]

This is getting close to being really good.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Tell me about it.  The only good thing I can say about this is none of us have  from it.  Pretty much every other symptom is there though.

Interesting that it’s worse for you this time. I was barely symptomatic when I contracted it in FL over New Years. Thought I had over-exerted myself exercising the previous day and only tested because I was about to visit my grandmother.

But when I caught it last April it kicked my arse. Ugh. Worst sore throat I’ve ever had in my life. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This is getting close to being really good.

That is really nice. On the other hand this model was showing -17C 850mb temps here a few weeks ago which verified around -2C.

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In that kind of pattern I end up with highs in the mid 30s while lowland locations approach 50 with any sun break. 

Good day to really lord it over the lowland peasants

[DeepFriedEgg]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Which is why we’ve been getting so many top tier arctic blasts the last few decades as our climate torches. Right? Right??

Still waiting for June 2021's inverse.

-20F in PDX

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, DeepFriedEgg said:

Still waiting for June 2021's inverse.

-20F in PDX

Hope you don’t mind waiting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like this run has highs in the low 40s with lows 25-30 in the willamette valley next weekend. Not bad. 

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Make sure to hydrate Phil! Gross 

 

 

We just turned on the AC. Eff this s**t.