January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like this run has highs in the low 40s with lows 25-30 in the willamette valley next weekend. Not bad. 

So basically 45/34 at PDX

[Phil]

 

34 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Cold euro run. Big improvements.

I’d happily settle for the 12z Euro.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

So basically 45/34 at PDX

Yes. 

[Slushy Inch]

Nice reload attempt on the control.

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

and I repeat 2/5 - 2-12

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Looks like Dulles maxed out at 79˚F today, so 80-burger denied… how sad.

But Reagan National made it up to 81˚F!

OK, back to PNW weather.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC has Feb looking chilly to start things off. Is it gonna deliver again?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

 

Raw data for Reagan National says 81, but could be rounding error.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KDCA&hours=72

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EC has Feb looking chilly to start things off. Is it gonna deliver again?

Would not write off February, it has been our most consistent performer in recent decades.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Nice reload attempt on the control.

Control almost always comes through. 

[AlTahoe]

35 minutes ago, Phil said:

We just turned on the AC. Eff this s**t.

This brings up an interesting thought exercise. Since you guys had a snow storm not to long ago.  Can anyone think of another location that had a snow storm and reached 80F + in the month of January? 

  I am thinking maybe northern Texas or Arkansas 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Control almost always comes through. 

It’s misnamed because it’s usually out of control 

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Control almost always comes through. 

True. Wonder why that is 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

This brings up an interesting thought exercise. Since you guys had a snow storm not to long ago.  Can anyone think of another location that had a snow storm and reached 80F + in the month of January? 

  I am thinking maybe northern Texas or Arkansas 

Arkansas does this often

[DeepFriedEgg]

9 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

True. Wonder why that is 

Cherry picking?

[Phishy Wx]

10 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

This brings up an interesting thought exercise. Since you guys had a snow storm not to long ago.  Can anyone think of another location that had a snow storm and reached 80F + in the month of January? 

  I am thinking maybe northern Texas or Arkansas 

heck that can happen in Denver, or at least close

[TT-SEA]

Lovely day out here so far with the rain holding off... some sun breaks and mid level clouds and 54 in North Bend currently.   

[AlTahoe]

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

heck that can happen in Denver, or at least close

Specifically for the month of Jan. Denvers earliest 80F is March 18th. Spring time tons of cities can get snow and go to 80F. Jan seems really hard to do 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Arkansas does this often

This is from February 2011 at Bartlesville, OK.

8      23     10   16.5  -21.1     48      0      T      M      0
 9      20    -13    3.5  -34.3     61      0   0.12      M      0
10      29    -28    0.5  -37.6     64      0   0.00    0.0      0
11      44     -7   18.5  -19.8     46      0   0.00    0.0      0
12      55     21   38.0   -0.6     27      0   0.00    0.0      0
13      52     18   35.0   -3.8     30      0   0.00    0.0      0
14      51     27   39.0   -0.1     26      0   0.00    0.0      0
15      61     32   46.5    7.2     18      0   0.00    0.0      0
16      62     60   61.0   21.4      4      0   0.00    0.0      0
17      82     56   69.0   29.1      0      4   0.00    0.0      0

[bainbridgekid]

If we get any clearing, Monday afternoon might be ridiculously warm. Widespread 68-72 degree temps showing up East of Puget Sound on the WRF. Still unclear if the jet stream will pull far enough NW to make something like that possible though. If not we'd just be looking at 60 degree rain.

 

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Specifically for the month of Jan. Denvers earliest 80F is March 18th. Spring time tons of cities can get snow and go to 80F. Jan seems really hard to do 

Mid-south or Plains states are where I’d look for that to be most frequent.

Not the first time it’s happened here though. Jan 1932 and 1950 both reached 80°F and had measurable snow (though IAD records don’t go back that far and DCA technically only reached 79°F in 1950 thanks to wind off the water, but basically the same thing, just less data).

In Feb/Mar such extremes are much more common, of course. In fact temp extremes are more the rule than the exception in late winter/spring as insolation battles the arctic at its coldest time of year (bottoms out in Feb). 

[Phil]

49 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Raw data for Reagan National says 81, but could be rounding error.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KDCA&hours=72

Probably a rounding error, but given its DCA anything is possible.

[Doinko]

42 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

This brings up an interesting thought exercise. Since you guys had a snow storm not to long ago.  Can anyone think of another location that had a snow storm and reached 80F + in the month of January? 

  I am thinking maybe northern Texas or Arkansas 

Looks like Dallas did it in Jan 1917. 7.1" snowstorm on the 14th and then 84 on the 30th

[AlTahoe]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like Dallas did it in Jan 1917. 7.1" snowstorm on the 14th and then 84 on the 30th

Dallas kind of gets forgotten on how extreme their weather can get. Good find. 

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

If we get any clearing, Monday afternoon might be ridiculously warm. Widespread 68-72 degree temps showing up East of Puget Sound on the WRF. Still unclear if the jet stream will pull far enough NW to make something like that possible though. If not we'd just be looking at 60 degree rain.

 

Awesome! Let’s go big!! Then go big cold again! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like Dallas did it in Jan 1917. 7.1" snowstorm on the 14th and then 84 on the 30th

Not quite 80, but many spots in the Portland area, including PDX, hit 75 in April 2022, then had a major late season snow event just four days later.

[Cascadia_Wx]

39 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Awesome! Let’s go big!! Then go big cold again! 

Meanwhile I’m going to burn a pile of money, then go spend whatever I have left at Casino the next day, since being so far in the hole will make it more likely for me to win it all back, and then some.

Edited January 26 by Cascadia_Wx

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is from February 2011 at Bartlesville, OK.

8      23     10   16.5  -21.1     48      0      T      M      0
 9      20    -13    3.5  -34.3     61      0   0.12      M      0
10      29    -28    0.5  -37.6     64      0   0.00    0.0      0
11      44     -7   18.5  -19.8     46      0   0.00    0.0      0
12      55     21   38.0   -0.6     27      0   0.00    0.0      0
13      52     18   35.0   -3.8     30      0   0.00    0.0      0
14      51     27   39.0   -0.1     26      0   0.00    0.0      0
15      61     32   46.5    7.2     18      0   0.00    0.0      0
16      62     60   61.0   21.4      4      0   0.00    0.0      0
17      82     56   69.0   29.1      0      4   0.00    0.0      0

TX and OK would have to be my nominees for the most dramatic wintertime temperature swings.

My parents lived in the D-FW Metroplex for about ten years and I would usually visit them in the winter or spring (because I am going to stay the hell away from there in the summer). The one thing that struck me about winters in north Texas was how mild the seasonal norms were, and how wild the extremes that averaged to those norms were. If I spent a week in the Metroplex in the winter, I would wear everything from shorts and a T-shirt to a heavy winter jacket outdoors.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

TX and OK would have to be my nominees for the most dramatic wintertime temperature swings.

My parents lived in the D-FW Metroplex for about ten years and I would usually visit them in the winter or spring (because I am going to stay the hell away from there in the summer). The one thing that struck me about winters in north Texas was how mild the seasonal norms were, and how wild the extremes that averaged to those norms were. If I spent a week in the Metroplex in the winter, I would wear everything from shorts and a T-shirt to a heavy winter jacket outdoors.

December 2008 had one of my favorite extreme swings for Bville. 

10      40     17   28.5   -9.9     36      0   0.09      M      M
11      55     19   37.0   -1.1     28      0   0.00      M      M
12      50     28   39.0    1.1     26      0   0.00      M      M
13      63     43   53.0   15.4     12      0   0.00      M      M
14      74     18   46.0    8.7     19      0      T      M      M
15      18     14   16.0  -21.1     49      0   0.05      M      M
16      26     15   20.5  -16.4     44      0   0.03      M      M
17      30     23   26.5  -10.1     38      0   0.00      M      M
18      59     30   44.5    8.1     20      0   0.04      M      M
19      62     27   44.5    8.3     20      0   0.00      M      M
20      35     15   25.0  -11.0     40      0   0.00      M      M
21      27      8   17.5  -18.3     47      0   0.00      M      M

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

TX and OK would have to be my nominees for the most dramatic wintertime temperature swings.

My parents lived in the D-FW Metroplex for about ten years and I would usually visit them in the winter or spring (because I am going to stay the hell away from there in the summer). The one thing that struck me about winters in north Texas was how mild the seasonal norms were, and how wild the extremes that averaged to those norms were. If I spent a week in the Metroplex in the winter, I would wear everything from shorts and a T-shirt to a heavy winter jacket outdoors.

Blue Northers are common, plus there is little resistance to the flow of airmasses on the plains!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

TX and OK would have to be my nominees for the most dramatic wintertime temperature swings.

My parents lived in the D-FW Metroplex for about ten years and I would usually visit them in the winter or spring (because I am going to stay the hell away from there in the summer). The one thing that struck me about winters in north Texas was how mild the seasonal norms were, and how wild the extremes that averaged to those norms were. If I spent a week in the Metroplex in the winter, I would wear everything from shorts and a T-shirt to a heavy winter jacket outdoors.

DFW is one of the wackiest weather places in the nation. Plenty of tornadoes too.

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

DFW is one of the wackiest weather places in the nation. Plenty of tornadoes too.

OKC is even crazier, more tornadoes than DFW!

[bainbridgekid]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

December 2008 had one of my favorite extreme swings for Bville. 

10      40     17   28.5   -9.9     36      0   0.09      M      M
11      55     19   37.0   -1.1     28      0   0.00      M      M
12      50     28   39.0    1.1     26      0   0.00      M      M
13      63     43   53.0   15.4     12      0   0.00      M      M
14      74     18   46.0    8.7     19      0      T      M      M
15      18     14   16.0  -21.1     49      0   0.05      M      M
16      26     15   20.5  -16.4     44      0   0.03      M      M
17      30     23   26.5  -10.1     38      0   0.00      M      M
18      59     30   44.5    8.1     20      0   0.04      M      M
19      62     27   44.5    8.3     20      0   0.00      M      M
20      35     15   25.0  -11.0     40      0   0.00      M      M
21      27      8   17.5  -18.3     47      0   0.00      M      M

A high of 74 followed by high of 18 is diabolical. That's the kind of thing that killed people 100 years ago with no way to know it was coming.

SEA's largest monthly swing was 74/14 in November 2010 and they did that in a day.

[AbbyJr]

23 hours ago, Phil said:

I’m not bullish on early Feb in the NW because historically speaking, subpolar canadian blocking above STJ extensions tends to drive colder ULL/TPV features offshore into the GOA.

I’m more interested in what happens mid Feb onwards, when a more coherent Alaska block and -AO type pattern tries to establish while the jet begins retracting.

Could something similar to February 2018 be a possible solution for mid February in the PNW?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Not Texas or Oklahoma, but Illinois in 1836:

Quote

John Moses recalled watching a heavy black cloud advance from the northwest on hurricane-force winds about two o’clock in the afternoon. “Almost instantly, the strong wind…accompanied by a deep, bellowing sound, with its icy blast, swept over the land, and everything was frozen hard. The water in the little ponds in the roads froze in waves, sharp-edged and pointed, as the gale had blown it. The chickens, pigs and other small animals were frozen in their tracks.”

Moses reported ice forming in the stream thicken to between six inches and a foot in a few hours, and wagon wheels ceasing to roll, congealed into the previously slushy ground. In Creve Coeur, the temperatures changed so quickly, man and cattle were frozen in their tracks, and the ice had to be cut away or melted before they could walk.

http://www.heidorn.info/keith/weather/events/ilsuddenchange.htm

[TT-SEA]

30 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Meanwhile I’m going to burn a pile of money, then go spend whatever I have left at Casino the next day, since being so far in the whole will make it more likely for me to win it all back, and then some.

Not how weather works.  Extremes do beget extremes.  Randy is all about experiences.  Must suck to be so wrapped around the axle about weather stats.   Finding them interesting is one thing.... but being so emotionally invested in stats is quite another. 

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not how weather works.  Extremes do beget extremes.  Randy is all about experiences.  Must suck to be so wrapped around the axle about weather stats.   Finding them interesting is one thing.... but being so emotionally invested in stats is quite another. 

I think we hit 60 before Feb 2019

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Not Texas or Oklahoma, but Illinois in 1836:

http://www.heidorn.info/keith/weather/events/ilsuddenchange.htm

The 19th century was full of insane weather extremes that would put anything in the last century to shame. At least out this way.

The derecho that tore thru DC during the war of 1812 (Aug 1814) isn’t even most extreme event of that decade, let alone the century.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the first third of Feb is getting a chilly and dry vibe right now.  A below normal Feb in any incarnation would be very impressive with a major Nino going.