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January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot


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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Tim right now ghosts side GIF

I have no idea what will actually happen.  The RGEM could be right.    I am just explaining what I am seeing in the models.   

Dewpoint could be -30 in Seattle tomorrow afternoon but that won't make it snow given the upper levels.   But it sure could make a mess of freezing rain.

Deformation zone position is everything on Wednesday for snow.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I have no idea what will actually happen.  The RGEM could be right.    I am just explaining what I am seeing in the models.   

Dewpoint could be -30 in Seattle tomorrow afternoon but that won't make it snow given the upper levels.   But it sure could make a mess of freezing rain.

Deformation zone position is everything on Wednesday for snow.

Lol I honestly agree with what you’re pointing out. The models show freezing rain you’re just stating what it shows. 

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have no idea what will actually happen.  The RGEM could be right.    I am just explaining what I am seeing in the models.   

Dewpoint could be -30 in Seattle tomorrow afternoon but that won't make it snow given the upper levels.   But it sure could make a mess of freezing rain.

tenor.gif?itemid=5098905

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Just now, Phishy Wx said:

Mossman has a stomach virus apparently and Tim's over there armchair Meteorologist'n

Thing is... Randy could still be the big winner.   If the deformation zone is where the RGEM shows then that is what will happen!

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1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

By far 

There have been so many... we are always watching the RGEM.  

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Nice thing about tracking an event that starts in 24 hours is that as soon as the run starts you have an answer.

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have no idea what will actually happen.  The RGEM could be right.    I am just explaining what I am seeing in the models.   

Dewpoint could be -30 in Seattle tomorrow afternoon but that won't make it snow given the upper levels.   But it sure could make a mess of freezing rain.

Deformation zone position is everything on Wednesday for snow.

I never know who is inhaling more copium, you or me, but i think we are at like 50/50 at this point in all my time on this forum. For whatever that is worth. 

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1 minute ago, KingstonWX said:

I never know who is inhaling more copium, you or me, but i think we are at like 50/50 at this point in all my time on this forum. For whatever that is worth. 

Had to look that up... can't disagree.

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

37/21 today, overall the lack of snow was kinda sad…but we got a truly 1989/1990 kind of Arctic blast experience with this. Just a major awesome cold wave and some of the coldest weather I’ve experienced IMBY. The absolute vodka cold this weekend was wild. 
 The Port of Tacoma and the beaches freezing was a once in a 25 year event basically. The picture I took of the frozen waterfront didn’t even seem real. Just a very legendary event IMO. I know some people care more about snow but this was awesome to experience. 

In other words, LAME!

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

In other words, LAME!

I know most people will remember the lack of snow…but it was unlike anything I’ve experienced in my lifetime. The fact that things keep trending colder and colder in a huge way within 24-48 hours was insane. Usually quite the opposite. The cold was the real deal! 

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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I think the problem is that the RGEM 10km has absolutely terrible terrain resolution.    Just running the 925mb loop and comparing it to another model like the ECMWF makes that so obvious.   Probably not a good tool in this situation.    Its really bad with terrain.  

rgem-all-washington-t925-1705363200-1705402800-1705590000-10.gif

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

37/21 today, overall the lack of snow was kinda sad…but we got a truly 1989/1990 kind of Arctic blast experience with this. Just a major awesome cold wave and some of the coldest weather I’ve experienced IMBY. The absolute vodka cold this weekend was wild. 
 The Port of Tacoma and the beaches freezing was a once in a 25 year event basically. The picture I took of the frozen waterfront didn’t even seem real. Just a very legendary event IMO. I know some people care more about snow but this was awesome to experience. 

indeed, legendary cold is awesome

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I think the problem is that the RGEM 10km has absolutely terrible terrain resolution.    Just running the 925mb loop and comparing it to another model like the ECMWF makes that so obvious.   Probably not a good tool in this situation.    Its really bad.  

rgem-all-washington-t925-1705363200-1705402800-1705590000-10.gif

Compare that to what its supposed to look like.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t925-1705341600-1705352400-1705665600-10.gif

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I know most people will remember the lack of snow…but it was unlike anything I’ve experienced in my lifetime. The fact that things keep trending colder and colder in a huge way within 24-48 hours was insane. Usually quite the opposite. The cold was the real deal! 

Most people also think the Bachelorette is good TV.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

I wasn't kidding.....tenor.gif?itemid=5098905

Stop analyzing a complex situation?   Nah.   That is what we do here.

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9 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

And for PDX. My wife works 7a-7p tomorrow at Providence Hospital in NE Portland, she's thinking about just volunteering to pull an all nighter. 

Greater Portland Metro Area-Greater Vancouver Area-
Including the cities of Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville,
Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Vancouver, Battle Ground,
Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, and Amboy
937 AM PST Mon Jan 15 2024

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM PST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total snow accumulations of
  up to one inch and ice accumulations of two tenths to one half
  of an inch.

* WHERE...In Oregon, Greater Portland Metro Area. In Washington,
  Greater Vancouver Area.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice.
  Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the evening commute.

and of course my wife tells me that my brother-in-law and his wife in Vancouver, WA are thinking of going tomorrow via the gorge to beat the bad weather in Eastern WA wed-fri. Just can't win.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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8 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hood River is on the short list for best towns in Oregon. Unfortunately you pretty much need to be a millionaire to live there. 

My cousin bought a bunch of acreage in the hills above Hood River. He's got a nice job but his dad had a farming ranch about 2hours north of SF so he knows how to work.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Good news is the high resolution RGEM is starting now and goes through 48 hours so it will cover most of this event. 

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I will say as someone who does water treatment for a living the cold is a nightmare. All of our systems suffered significant ice related damage up at Highway 18…along with many other jobsites in the region. My boss estimates atleast 20,000$ of damages so far. Lots of exploded pipes and valves. Spent all day pointing heaters at PVC pipes full of ice. 

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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