February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Front Ranger]

26 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Wasn't that an ana front situation, not intermittent showers and occasional weak systems making landfall?

Yeah. Of course, we don't know how the details will play out this time, but I'm curious how the upper levels compare.

[snow_wizard]

Interesting 18z GFS run.  Temps get quite a bit colder tonight than the 12z and a good chance of snow tomorrow night for the Central Sound.

[Groundhog]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It was another win for the NAM 3km up this way last night. It was calling for a slushy dusting turning to rain well before daybreak and that's exactly what happened.

It sure as accurate. Our kids were stoked at the snow when they went to bed. They were expecting a blizzard like on Jan 17. I attempted to temper expectations. Didn’t work. The 4-year-old was angry and looked out a second window hoping for a different result this morning, our 5-year-old got misty-eyed at the melting snow, and our 7-year-old was too focused on earning $ for a robot purchase and had clearly moved on from the snow. 

[Front Ranger]

18z shows 113" in about 36 hours for the Sierras just south of Tahoe, starting Friday. That's the most yet. Should be a historic storm there.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... looks like c-zone mania but that center of circulation never moves inland so we have southerly flow the next few days and no chance of traditional c-zones like we had on Monday.

This is the rare time when south flow brings snow to near sea level. This would of been a crazy pattern in December.

[snow_wizard]

Numerous opportunities for snow on these recent model runs.  Almost impossible to tell which time period will emerge as the best threat at this point.

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah. Of course, we don't know how the details will play out this time, but I'm curious how the upper levels compare.

3/12/12 was pretty beastly in the upper levels. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is the rare time when south flow brings snow to near sea level. This would of been a crazy pattern in December.

Eventually the trajectory comes around to NW.  There are going to be a number of different scenarios with this trough.  Hopefully everyone will get a chance to score.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

you could fit all the western states in this storm. Just amazing size.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

3/12/12 was pretty beastly in the upper levels. 

This is going to be pretty similar although the trough will be closer for part of it.  Looks like 850s are actually progged to be colder with this coming trough.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

3/12/12 was pretty beastly in the upper levels. 

That was back in the gordon fisherman days.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

you could fit all the western states in this storm. Just amazing size.

Crazy cold pool.  This would have been an epic cold wave for much of the country if the blocking was further east.

[snow_wizard]

Can't wait to see if the ECMWF follows the GFS with the colder punch coming in tonight.  The GFS was more aggressive and ultimately a bit colder with the temperature plunge this evening.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is going to be pretty similar although the trough will be closer for part of it.  Looks like 850s are actually progged to be colder with this coming trough.

Definitely some similarities. It’ll just come down to gradients and timing for any of the little disturbances pinwheeling around in it. FWIW, my wife reasserted her position on the matter last night. And she called me a nerd.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

46 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Wow wow wow. That beast has its sights on SW BC and northern Washington.  The ICON is as rock solid as every!

 

GFS takes this way south now. Another terrific GFS run. 

[TT-SEA]

I know Andrew was buried in March 2012... but I remember we didn't have much snow in my area that month and SEA had less than an inch.

[AlTahoe]

15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

18z shows 113" in about 36 hours for the Sierras just south of Tahoe, starting tomorrow. That's the most yet. Should be a historic storm there.

Got everything gassed up and read to go. Hoping the power stays on for this storm. Saturday will be one of the rare days you can snowmobile on the public streets to get around. Took my friends sled to my buddy's bar in Dec 2022 and then shredded all the meadows back to my house with a few other people. Passing cars stuck on highway 50 was fun 

[T-Town]

Looks like we’re finally emerging from the rain shadow here. .41 on the day and pouring now. 

[TacomaWx]

Quite moist here in snoqualmie much different than 24 hours ago when it was snowing and 35 degrees. Looks like about 0.8” of rain/snowmelt here since midnight but the rain has really started to pick up in the last couple hours. Have discharged about 270,000 gallons of storm water here at my jobsite so far today and that’s just one of the 4 treatment sites. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is going to be pretty similar although the trough will be closer for part of it.  Looks like 850s are actually progged to be colder with this coming trough.

This was a week before the big one that hammered the willamette valley. This one brought heavy snow to the coast, the willamette valley had an inch or two in spots with this, we had about 10” at my location. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

3/12/12 was pretty beastly in the upper levels. 

There were three significant events, that brought 10”+ to the foothills and sticking snow to at least parts of the willamette valley. This one, one on 2/29-3/1 and then the one on the 21-22nd of March which was the big one. 

Edited February 28 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This was a week before the big one that hammered the willamette valley. This one brought heavy snow to the coast, the willamette valley had an inch or two in spots with this, we had about 10” at my location. 

I remember there was like 6" in Pacific City with that one and 9" in Hebo right on and near the coast with that one.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There were three significant events, that brought 10”+ to the foothills and sticking snow to at least parts of the willamette valley. This one, one on 2/29-3/1 and then the one on the 21-22nd of March which was the big one. 

That 3/21-22 storm must have been entirely focused to the south.... North Bend had 50/35 on 3/22/12.  

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I know Andrew was buried in March 2012... but I remember we didn't have much snow in my area that month and SEA had less than an inch.

I had about 4

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Got everything gassed up and read to go. Hoping the power stays on for this storm. Saturday will be one of the rare days you can snowmobile on the public streets to get around. Took my friends sled to my buddy's bar in Dec 2022 and then shredded all the meadows back to my house with a few other people. Passing cars stuck on highway 50 was fun 

What is your elevation? what is a good web cam to watch?

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There were three significant events, that brought 10”+ to the foothills and sticking snow to at least parts of the willamette valley. This one, one on 2/29-3/1 and then the one on the 21-22nd of March which was the big one. 

The equinox STORM was deceptively benign looking in the big picture.

[TT-SEA]

@Rubus Leucodermis the high res RGEM (HRDPS) is running again.  

This is the new 18Z run through Friday morning (it only goes out 48 hours).   

 

[TT-SEA]

HRDPS is surprisingly meager with the anafront set up early tomorrow morning.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

@Rubus Leucodermis the high res RGEM (HRDPS) is running again.  

This is the new 18Z run through Friday morning (it only goes out 48 hours).   

 

Because March, LOL.

At least @TigerWoodsLibido might score.

[TacomaWx]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That 3/21-22 storm must have been entirely focused to the south.... North Bend had 50/35 on 3/22/12.  

 

Atleast in recent years, these early/mid spring snowfall events seem to have favored some Oregon. 2012, 2020 and 2022 come to mind. We had about 1/2” here in March 2012. 

[AlTahoe]

10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What is your elevation? what is a good web cam to watch?

6300'

this site is ok and truckee airport has a good cam as well. 

https://tahoeweathercam.com/

 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Because March, LOL.

At least @TigerWoodsLibido might score.

So nice to see a model with absolutely no terrain bleed... it is so precise with the topography.  

[ShawniganLake]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I know Andrew was buried in March 2012... but I remember we didn't have much snow in my area that month and SEA had less than an inch.

We didn’t have much up Here in 2012. A couple mornings with an inch or 2 of slush.  2002 was the big one here.  23” for March that year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That 3/21-22 storm must have been entirely focused to the south.... North Bend had 50/35 on 3/22/12.  

 

Yeah Silver Falls had their latest freezing high on record with that. I think Eugene only hit 36 that day. We had 16” with the 2/29-3/1 event, 10” on the 12-13th, and then 21” with the 21-22nd storm. A few other minor events in there including a fun 3” dump on the morning of St Patrick’s day. We had about 40” of snow that month, and it was our snowiest month since I’ve been here until February 2019. Still our snowiest March though last year got in the ballpark with 33.8”.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The equinox STORM was deceptively benign looking in the big picture.

The massive ridging across most of the lower 48 caused those systems to stall out. We also had over 20” of total precip that month. It was pretty insane. 

 

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

We didn’t have much up Here in 2012. A couple mornings with an inch or 2 of slush.  2002 was the big one here.  23” for March that year. 

Living in the valley at the time in 2002, but we had several days of snow in the air and a couple dustings. I’m sure the foothills did very well. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So nice to see a model with absolutely no terrain bleed... it is so precise with the topography.  

Still Pepto here… 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Still Pepto here… 

Then you know its real.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Then you know its real.

If anything the big picture models like the GFS and EURO are underplaying the post frontal shower activity. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So nice to see a model with absolutely no terrain bleed... it is so precise with the topography.  

HRDPS and HRRR are the same way. Terrain bleed is an artifact of low resolution. But this winter at least NAM has been king up here. HRDPS was calling for 2-4". Nobody near sea level got that much until you got out to Abbotsford.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

@Rubus Leucodermis the high res RGEM (HRDPS) is running again.  

This is the new 18Z run through Friday morning (it only goes out 48 hours).   

 

Maybe some flakes in the air at times. Not bad.