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February 2024 Weather in the PNW


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43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF was a little colder with a little more snow on Wednesday night and then quite a bit warmer with temps getting close to 60 from Friday - Sunday.    Interesting week.    No idea if it will be warmer or colder than normal overall and no idea how much snow will fall.    Could be a warmer than normal week with lowland snow in western WA.  😁

Don’t know why everyone is so worked up over some cold rain but ignoring the 60s and 70s showing up later in the run. The later looks good for some southerly flow by end of month too.

I’m thinking I can get sunflowers started in a couple weeks and get the lime tree outside too. Going to try some avocado and figs this year too, so I need , no, we need this cold to end soon.

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4 minutes ago, iFred said:

Don’t know why everyone is so worked up over some cold rain but ignoring the 60s and 70s showing up later in the run. The later looks good for some southerly flow by end of month too.

I’m thinking I can get sunflowers started in a couple weeks and get the lime tree outside too. Going to try some avocado and figs this year too, so I need , no, we need this cold to end soon.

I am not telling anyone not to be excited for snow this week.   I think there is a pretty good chance it happens.    The swings on the ECMWF this week are also pretty interesting to me.    I like tracking weather regardless of my own springtime wanderlust.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, iFred said:

Don’t know why everyone is so worked up over some cold rain but ignoring the 60s and 70s showing up later in the run. The later looks good for some southerly flow by end of month too.

I’m thinking I can get sunflowers started in a couple weeks and get the lime tree outside too. Going to try some avocado and figs this year too, so I need , no, we need this cold to end soon.

And the uncanny valley that is Fred’s persona here only widens…

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

And the uncanny valley that is Fred’s persona here only widens…

Its all of the above.   Don't take it personally!   

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Ended up with a 56/39 day here. Chilly with drizzle through about noon or so then the southerlies busted in and it was partly to mostly cloudy and milder.

Mostly cloudy and 46 currently. Hoping for cooler conditions in the coming days.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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I'm already getting a bit intrigued by this.

1708948800-2hfJRC08MTg.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Low temps Wednesday night from the stupidly snowy GFS and much less snowy Euro. Hard to imagine a more tenuous setup temperature wise. Be interesting to track tomorrow to see if the chance of snow below 1,000 feet holds.

sfctmin_024h-imp.us_state_wa.png

sfctmin_024h-imp.us_state_wa (1).png

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Low temps Wednesday night from the stupidly GFS and much less snowy Euro. Hard to imagine a more tenuous setup temperature wise. Be interesting to track tomorrow to see if the chance of snow below 1,000 feet holds.

sfctmin_024h-imp.us_state_wa.png

sfctmin_024h-imp.us_state_wa (1).png

Here is the same from the control run which shows more snow than the ECMWF.

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-or_wa-t2m_f_min6-8020000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The ECMWF finally splits the PV on this run.  Might add to the potential late month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Low temps Wednesday night from the stupidly snowy GFS and much less snowy Euro. Hard to imagine a more tenuous setup temperature wise. Be interesting to track tomorrow to see if the chance of snow below 1,000 feet holds.

sfctmin_024h-imp.us_state_wa.png

sfctmin_024h-imp.us_state_wa (1).png

All we need is about 1C of cooling from what is shown tonight at all levels to pull it off.  Very doable.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF finally splits the PV on this run.  Might add to the potential late month.

I was just checking on that... don't know for sure but I think Phil would say the ECMWF does not show a PV split.   But it looks like the GFS obliterates it by 384 hours.

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-8560000.png

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-9078400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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BTW I still remember all the compliments like ten of you spontaneously gave me on a random day in April 2022. Completely unprompted and so sweet. Y'all probably don't remember but I'll never forget

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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The 6z ICON is a tad colder also.  This thing has a shot.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Seems like every GFS run has had some goodies at the end. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Not sold on snow in Tacoma just yet but up here at work in snoqualmie? I think there’s a pretty good chance at 900’ for some snow. 

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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5 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

Low temps Wednesday night from the stupidly snowy GFS and much less snowy Euro. Hard to imagine a more tenuous setup temperature wise. Be interesting to track tomorrow to see if the chance of snow below 1,000 feet holds.

sfctmin_024h-imp.us_state_wa.png

sfctmin_024h-imp.us_state_wa (1).png

That’s about as close as it can be. Seems like could be a situation that could catch off guard if it ends up 1-2 degrees cooler than expected…but for now I’m just expecting cold rain atleast at 300’ near the Puget sound. 

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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Not much mention from the NWS AFD. Just a chance of rain/snow mix south of Puget sound for now. Can’t really blame them for not going out on a limb on this one yet lol

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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Ended up with 0.25" of rain yesterday. 1.66" on the month. 29 years ago today the Willamette Valley had a pretty legitimate snow event. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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November-January ONI hit 2.0. Pretty impressive. 

Nearly an 80% chance we are in Nina territory by fall. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Today's almanac for Silver Falls. 

Climo: 45/33

Record High: 63 (1971)

Record Low: 15 (1949)

Rainfall: 1.57" (1984)

Snow: 4.0" (1990)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Not sold on snow in Tacoma just yet but up here at work in snoqualmie? I think there’s a pretty good chance at 900’ for some snow. 

Sounds pretty marginal and Tacoma doesn’t typically do well in marginal situations. So I’m expecting nothing and am willing to be pleasantly surprised. 

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35 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

We’re within NAM range

 

IMG_8169.png

North…C’MON!!! 
 

And The Fuzz…

IMG_2683.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Mostly cloud and mild with a low of 44 so far this morning. At least it looks like we’ll clear out this evening and possibly be looking at some frost tomorrow morning.

Most guidance has highs around 50 for today, but with the mild start and sunbreaks likely later, I think most spots in the Portland metro will make a solid run at 55.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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4 hours ago, The Winter Warlock said:

Can someone post the low placement ensemble?

Looks like we are model riding this week, folks.

Are we really doing this? 

Man, I was just about ready to start planning outdoor Spring projects 😂 

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Portland | Raleigh Hills/West Sylvan | 350’

”All models are wrong, some are useful.”

-G. Box

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25 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Mostly cloud and mild with a low of 44 so far this morning. At least it looks like we’ll clear out this evening and possibly be looking at some frost tomorrow morning.

Most guidance has highs around 50 for today, but with the mild start and sunbreaks likely later, I think most spots in the Portland metro will make a solid run at 55.

Noticed it was 47 on the car thermometer heading into Salem today. Exceptionally mild start. Mid-June type temperatures.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I just realized I missed my five year forum anniversary on 1/31! I joined on behalf of @iFred's Twitter invitation to relish in the Feb 2019 hype on a platform which matched my unhinged nerdiness a bit better.

More than fifty inches of snow later (ghad fuggin damn!!!) and it feels like much longer than just five years have passed, which is quite funny considering everyone always told me as a kid these years would fly by. If anything, high school came and went like a picture book. My life has been absolutely crazy since I joined. By no coincidence I feel like a much different person today compared to the individual who created this account. I'm just starting to figure my shitt out now and my hope is to be well on my way to an Atmos Sci degree come my tenth. Thanks to Fred for gifting me a space with open arms and thanks to all you for listening to my neurodivergent spieling.

Also!!!!! Can we give it up for a 10"+ seasonal average since joining!? I just figured that fact out while writing this. My sad ass post 2012-19 stretch self would have NEVER guessed!

You were the forum's 5th anniversary gift. Now you need to rope someone in to continue the tradition of quality posters.

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18 minutes ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Are we really doing this? 

Man, I was just about ready to start planning outdoor Spring projects 😂 

It is possible to plan spring projects and track snow chances at the same time.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Fair point. I’ll put a hold on the mulch for a bit longer 😁

Maybe there’s something I’m not understanding. What would stop you from going outside today? It’s overcast but temps aren’t overly cold.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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