March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Mark and I go way back. Love hate thing. If I had any social media I would make jokes about him too

Im curious, how do you guys know eachother?

 

Also do you not realize the way you use this platform counts as social media?

[Tanis Leach]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Mark and I go way back. Love hate thing. If I had any social media I would make jokes about him too

Would you like me to put one in on your behalf?

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

He'll probably make a few jokes about Jesse on social media.

Pretty sure Mark goes out his way to needle Jesse.   Not only does he not change Mark... he makes it worse for himself.  Never-ending cycle.   

[the_convergence_zone]

Got 0.41” of rain today. Pretty icky day but it was nice to get a good soaking before the warm spell. I’m off tomorrow so I’m going out to the mountains in the morning, hopefully the steady rain holds off until the afternoon. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Got 0.41” of rain today. Pretty icky day but it was nice to get a good soaking before the warm spell. I’m off tomorrow so I’m going out to the mountains in the morning, hopefully the steady rain holds off until the afternoon. 

Looks like central Casades might be dry tomorrow until about 2 p.m.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

9 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Got 0.41” of rain today. Pretty icky day but it was nice to get a good soaking before the warm spell. I’m off tomorrow so I’m going out to the mountains in the morning, hopefully the steady rain holds off until the afternoon. 

Not a drop here. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

22 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

Would you like me to put one in on your behalf?

Please do.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Im

just here 

2 fight

weather evil. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

46 with some showers. Enjoying lots of college basketball.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Im

just here 

2 fight

weather evil. 

We appreciate you. You are truly one of Christ’s foot soldiers.

[Tanis Leach]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Please do.

Please put your message in. You have till Wednsday where at 6:30 pm I will deliver it to Mark personally. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Im

just here 

2 fight

weather evil. 

Silliness.    Pointless silliness.   

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

Please put your message in. You have till Wednsday where at 6:30 pm I will deliver it to Mark personally. 

This is social media.  And Mark likely reads everything here.  And he could email Mark if he really wanted to do the screaming Karen thing in person.  But Mark already knows the deal.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark is likely posting his ridiculous wishcast just to troll us. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mark is likely posting his ridiculous wishcast just to troll us. 

It’s going to torch, and your whining about it is not going to change it.

Cheers!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

A notch cooler than when I last checked, yet still lots of 70-burgers all the way up into southern BC.

Sorry, Andrew and Jesse.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

A notch cooler than when I last checked, yet still lots of 70-burgers all the way up into southern BC.

Sorry, Andrew and Jesse.

Salem never makes it to 70 on this map. The "burger" thing was always dumb and now it's just old and tired. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Salem never makes it to 70 on this map. The "burger" thing was always dumb and now it's just old and tired. 

Glad someone said it.

[Cascadia_Wx]

36 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

Please put your message in. You have till Wednsday where at 6:30 pm I will deliver it to Mark personally. 

Ohh, this is the real deal. Now I’m getting all flustered!!

Tell him that when he retires in Yuma, AZ he can expect 80s every March

[Cascadia_Wx]

Today was active and breezy with fairly average temps for mid-March. High of 54 at midnight during a south wind burst, low of 42 this morning as the cold front passed over. Much of this afternoon was around 50 with gusty winds and heavy showers at times. Picked up about .40” on the day. Over an inch on the month now.

[MossMan]

I BBQ’d a Bison Burger for dinner tonight. 

[Tanis Leach]

With the warm wave, I do think we'll have an extended period of warm temps, but I'm not as aggresive as Mark is. Euro mean max for the upcoming days:

PDX

Thu: 61

Fri: 65

Sat: 69

Sun: 71

Mon: 71

Tue: 65

CVO:

Thu: 58

Fri: 65

Sat: 67

Sun: 68

Mon: 68

Tue: 65

 

850s, while Mark is correct that they peak at 10-16C according to the Euro, they peak on Friday, and on Sunday (the warmest temps), it's 10-14C. The atmosphere on Friday has not had enough time to warm up yet to 75+ (temp potential is 84 with those 850s, but drop to 81 by Sunday, and 80 on Monday). While the models have been worse than usual this winter, they have been good when predicting temps using the old rules (+2-7F at PDX when sunny and no snow on the ground). 

I finally have my new computer so I may get my graphical forecast back, but this is what I'm thinking at this time:

Thu: 66

Fri: 71

Sat: 75

Sun: 77 (more than 5 days, I don't forecast closer than 3 degrees to temperature potential)

Mon: 77

Tue: 72

CVO:

Thu: 66

Fri: 70

Sat: 74

Sun: 75

Mon: 75

Tue: 69

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

With the warm wave, I do think we'll have an extended period of warm temps, but I'm not as aggresive as Mark is. Euro mean max for the upcoming days:

PDX

Thu: 61

Fri: 65

Sat: 69

Sun: 71

Mon: 71

Tue: 65

CVO:

Thu: 58

Fri: 65

Sat: 67

Sun: 68

Mon: 68

Tue: 65

 

850s, while Mark is correct that they peak at 10-16C according to the Euro, they peak on Friday, and on Sunday (the warmest temps), it's 10-14C. The atmosphere on Friday has not had enough time to warm up yet to 75+ (temp potential is 84 with those 850s, but drop to 81 by Sunday, and 80 on Monday). While the models have been worse than usual this winter, they have been good when predicting temps using the old rules (+2-7F at PDX when sunny and no snow on the ground). 

I finally have my new computer so I may get my graphical forecast back, but this is what I'm thinking at this time:

Thu: 66

Fri: 71

Sat: 75

Sun: 77 (more than 5 days, I don't forecast closer than 3 degrees to temperature potential)

Mon: 77

Tue: 72

CVO:

Thu: 66

Fri: 70

Sat: 74

Sun: 75

Mon: 75

Tue: 69

I’m hoping we can stay below 75. Would probably take a miracle at this point.

[Meatyorologist]

I'm hoping everyone here gets the chance to enjoy this very mild upcoming early Spring week. If the warm weather and pertinent sunshine doesn't awaken the whole biosphere, I don't know what will. The middle and lower elevations of the PNW will get a solid head start on the leafout season with this heatwave, perhaps a couple weeks ahead of schedule near sea level and escalating to over a month in some of the foothills. Unsurprisingly on brand for a dying El Niño in a warming climate. I'm gonna be a moderate Mitchell here and claim that highs won't get too far out there. Low 70s in Seattle, upper 70s in the Willamette. Nothing ridiculous like the mid 80s.

Afterwards, there seems to be an intriguing push towards a midwinter-esque high latitude retrograde of the ridge. It's certainly possible given the immense magnitude of the initial ridge which will park overhead this week; heights nearly four sigma decameters above the mid march average. And with there being some cold on our side of the pole trapped in the vicinity of northeast Alaska, there may be gas yet left from our 2023-24 season in a very, very high end, out there blocking scenario. Reading some of the great 1800's talk we've been having over these last few days, we do know there's still a dying breath's potential to squeeze out a Salem Slushie Special on some Spring Sunday sometime soon, surely. Sayonara!

But hold your thawing horses. Tomorrow and into Tuesday we have more transitive troughing to contend with, maybe bringing some lightning via some of the well timed bands of showers. There'll be more of a westerly component to this next incoming trough, so the Seattle area will probably deal with more Olympic shadowing, and will have to benefit from clear sky daytime heating and other thermal perturbations in the PSCZ to swoop in a squall line. We're in mid March now... could happen. Just the other day we had hail showers under a surprisingly clear sky!

[Omegaraptor]

Getting close to Chico finally. Been raining steadily and pretty good since Mt Shasta City. 48 at Red Bluff, it seems like the Chico sensor is malfunctioning.

 

[TT-SEA]

GFS pretty consistent in retrograding the ridge by Tuesday.    GEM went that direction as well.  3 or 4 warm days... pretty standard for March.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm hoping everyone here gets the chance to enjoy this very mild upcoming early Spring week. If the warm weather and pertinent sunshine doesn't awaken the whole biosphere, I don't know what will. The middle and lower elevations of the PNW will get a solid head start on the leafout season with this heatwave, perhaps a couple weeks ahead of schedule near sea level and escalating to over a month in some of the foothills. Unsurprisingly on brand for a dying El Niño in a warming climate. I'm gonna be a moderate Mitchell here and claim that highs won't get too far out there. Low 70s in Seattle, upper 70s in the Willamette. Nothing ridiculous like the mid 80s.

Afterwards, there seems to be an intriguing push towards a midwinter-esque high latitude retrograde of the ridge. It's certainly possible given the immense magnitude of the initial ridge which will park overhead this week; heights nearly four sigma decameters above the mid march average. And with there being some cold on our side of the pole trapped in the vicinity of northeast Alaska, there may be gas yet left from our 2023-24 season in a very, very high end, out there blocking scenario. Reading some of the great 1800's talk we've been having over these last few days, we do know there's still a dying breath's potential to squeeze out a Salem Slushie Special on some Spring Sunday sometime soon, surely. Sayonara!

But hold your thawing horses. Tomorrow and into Tuesday we have more transitive troughing to contend with, maybe bringing some lightning via some of the well timed bands of showers. There'll be more of a westerly component to this next incoming trough, so the Seattle area will probably deal with more Olympic shadowing, and will have to benefit from clear sky daytime heating and other thermal perturbations in the PSCZ to swoop in a squall line. We're in mid March now... could happen. Just the other day we had hail showers under a surprisingly clear sky!

Phenology getting pushed 2-4 weeks ahead of schedule seems pretty bold, especially since as of right now everything seems to be at least several days behind, thanks to the late Feb/early March cool spell. I’d say this could stand to push things a week or so ahead of normal. Mild rain is probably the best at jump starting things. Warm afternoon temps with cool mornings and drier air is decent, but not quite as effective.

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Phenology getting pushed 2-4 weeks ahead of schedule seems pretty bold, especially since as of right now everything seems to be at least several days behind, thanks to the late Feb/early March cool spell. I’d say this could stand to push things a week or so ahead of normal. Mild rain is probably the best at jump starting things. Warm afternoon temps with cool mornings and drier air is decent, but not quite as effective.

Feir, given the dry heir

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

46 with some showers. Enjoying lots of college basketball.

Go beavers, boo ducks!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

This is social media.  And Mark likely reads everything here.  And he could email Mark if he really wanted to do the screaming Karen thing in person.  But Mark already knows the deal.  

I really hope Mark Nelsen reads the posts here

 

Mark if you're reading this, MAKE A POST ALREADY, COWARD!

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I really hope Mark Nelsen reads the posts here

 

Mark if you're reading this, MAKE A POST ALREADY, COWARD!

How do you know he hasn't?

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if antimarinelayer is ACTUALLY Mark Nelson.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

How do you know he hasn't?

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if antimarinelayer is ACTUALLY Mark Nelson.

It's not me

[MossMan]

It was a nice and fairly warm day 6yrs ago today! Was here with our home inspector making sure what we were planning on buying wasn’t a lemon. First ever deck pic! 

[the_convergence_zone]

32 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Phenology getting pushed 2-4 weeks ahead of schedule seems pretty bold, especially since as of right now everything seems to be at least several days behind, thanks to the late Feb/early March cool spell. I’d say this could stand to push things a week or so ahead of normal. Mild rain is probably the best at jump starting things. Warm afternoon temps with cool mornings and drier air is decent, but not quite as effective.

Anecdotally it seems like most deciduous trees and shrubs are sensitive to base-50 growing degree days, so we can certainly rack those up in a warm rainy period. Plants here are ahead of last year by a few days but behind several other recent years. 

 

[snow_wizard]

If the 0z GFS verifies I will be a happy camper.  Kind of a mid 1980s vibe.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS pretty consistent in retrograding the ridge by Tuesday.    GEM went that direction as well.  3 or 4 warm days... pretty standard for March.  

Looks pretty dry though either way. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Phenology getting pushed 2-4 weeks ahead of schedule seems pretty bold, especially since as of right now everything seems to be at least several days behind, thanks to the late Feb/early March cool spell. I’d say this could stand to push things a week or so ahead of normal. Mild rain is probably the best at jump starting things. Warm afternoon temps with cool mornings and drier air is decent, but not quite as effective.

Totally agree.  Many of the nights during whatever warm period actually happens could be pretty cold in the outlying areas.  At this point above normal daily averages appear they will be limited to maybe as little as 4 days for some places.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks pretty dry though either way. 

Difficult to not be dry with high pressure dominating the NE Pacific.  

[ShawniganLake]

Hiked along the dikes in Cowichan Bay this afternoon.  A few rain squalls blew by but not too bad.  
 

 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS pretty consistent in retrograding the ridge by Tuesday.    GEM went that direction as well.  3 or 4 warm days... pretty standard for March.  

GFS might end up being right.  Sometimes it does great with catching onto things in the longer range.