March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I had a feeling we might see some gross trends for next week at some point. The setup driving the supposed retrogression looks pretty tenuous. Let’s hope the ensembles and Euro are better.

Gross.   

Trying to keep silly hyperbole words out of the analysis.    Everyone has different opinions.   It is what it is.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Very nice and crisp morning here currently. 41 degrees with some blue skies visible to the north.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like a massive step away from the retrogression idea on the GEFS. That sucks. 

[TT-SEA]

Without the extreme blocking the pattern becomes seasonally variable on the GFS.  

[TT-SEA]

GEFS trending towards a more consolidated ridge by the middle of next week over the last few runs as well.  

[TT-SEA]

Some sun breaking through here now... only 43 in North Bend.    Probably won't rain again until next Wednesday at the earliest.    

[Cascadia_Wx]

I’ll be interested to see the Euro when it comes out in the next 25 minutes to four hours. Hopefully it keeps us in the game. 00z EPS was pretty solid with the cool down.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF runs have become very chaotic since the upgrade and time change.   It used to come out frame by frame from 9:50 through 10:55 with no exception.   Now it doesn't start on time and then comes out in massive chunks with some regional maps updating and other maps not updating.   It does seem to finish by 11 a.m. and p.m. though.   

[TT-SEA]

Its 10:20 now and the ECMWF is barely starting on WB with the precip map out to hour 2 so far.   Normally it would be out to 120 hours at this point.  

[ShawniganLake]

Frosty this morning here.  Low of 31.6.  Looking like a nice afternoon. Probably around 50 and sunny

[Cascadia_Wx]

How was the UKMET.

[MossMan]

56 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Without the extreme blocking the pattern becomes seasonally variable on the GFS.  

Time for the plow to come off! Reminds me, I need new blades for the mower deck. 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF just updated through 216 hours.    It keeps the ridging in place through Tuesday and then breaks down the ridge much quicker than the GFS or GEM with a lobe of the vortex over Canada swinging through similar to its 00Z run.    Dry through Wednesday with highs around 60 in Seattle that day and then some showers on Thursday and clearing on Friday and looks like highs in the low 50s.  Different 500mb pattern but not all that different in terms of weather compared to the GFS and GEM.   Pretty tame transition back to seasonal weather.  

[TT-SEA]

Waiting for ECMWF to finish through 240 hours and will post maps.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF is much stronger with the ridge over the north Pacific later in the run compared to the other models.   But did shift east quite a bit with the really cold air by day 10.   

[TT-SEA]

And despite the chaotic updates... the ECMWF still finishes on time at 11 a.m.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF quite dry but by day 10 shows a large plume of moisture overriding the ridge over the Pacific into BC.   This could evolve into a wet pattern eventually.   

[Phishy Wx]

that ain't gunna do it

break out the shorts and flip flops

[Cloud]

Hi, 

Anyone excited for spring-like weather this weekend?

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Just now, Cloud said:

Hi, 

Anyone excited for spring-like weather this weekend?

I know I am!

[TT-SEA]

The next precip in Seattle per the 12Z ECMWF is next Thursday afternoon... so that would be an 8 day dry spell.    

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Gross.   

Trying to keep silly hyperbole words out of the analysis.    Everyone has different opinions.   It is what it is.  

why can't his own personal opinion be hyperbolic?  Hyperbole is extremely common around here.

As you said, everyone has different opinions, including hyperbolic ones.  We are way past the point where this thread only contains unbiased observations.

[iFred]

I've got to do a PHP and MySQL upgrade in the coming days. Forum might be up and down for a bit this weekend.

One of these days I'll containerize the place and put it on top of postgres, and these instance downtimes will be a thing of the past, but I dont make enough money to do that.

[iFred]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Gross.   

Trying to keep silly hyperbole words out of the analysis.    Everyone has different opinions.   It is what it is.  

You can just block him. Should make your viewing experience better.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

I've got to do a PHP and MySQL upgrade in the coming days. Forum might be up and down for a bit this weekend.

One of these days I'll containerize the place and put it on top of postgres, and these instance downtimes will be a thing of the past, but I dont make enough money to do that.

Have you thought about doing a member owned kind of setup?

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

why can't his own personal opinion be hyperbolic?  Hyperbole is extremely common around here.

As you said, everyone has different opinions, including hyperbolic ones.  We are way past the point where this thread only contains unbiased observations.

Fair enough.  Every time I inject excited hyperbole for something I like it ends up causing huge backlash from a couple of people so I just try to avoid it since its not worth the hassle.    I am sort of just skipping past the ridging now and focusing on the break down because everyone already knows I will enjoy this weekend.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

You can just block him. Should make your viewing experience better.

That would be silly.   

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Have you thought about doing a member owned kind of setup?

Agreed... I would contribute.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

48F and mostly cloudy. Lot of college basketball right now so I'll be checking in sporadically.

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Have you thought about doing a member owned kind of setup?

I smell a forum HOA in the making.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

48F and mostly cloudy. Lot of college basketball right now so I'll be checking in sporadically.

Go Cougs!  

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

48F and mostly cloudy. Lot of college basketball right now so I'll be checking in sporadically.

I was gonna let you know… apparently there’s some kind of tournament this month.

[iFred]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Have you thought about doing a member owned kind of setup?

Nah. I was involved with two different forums that required some kind of donation drive or squabbling over things like adverts and memberships. The bills average ~150 a month and I can cover it without any issue, so that can rule out a lot of drama. The real reason why some of the upgrades have dragged on or why @hawkstwelve doesn't have SSH access yet is that my time seems to be feast or famine, especially with a kid, a job at FAANG Co, and a side project/startup/fever dream.

I still have a kanban board with the following:
- recovering deleted posts from the April 2023 forum hack
- merging westernwx.info forum
- cleaning up storage (unlimited storage is the largest driver of costs, thats why I don't like it when Phil uploads a 40 minutes 8k iPhone video of flurries)
- setting up YVR/SEA/PDX High Res WRF and local Graphcast
- write a "Looking back on 10 years" post

I'll get to this sooner or later.

[iFred]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Go Cougs!  

Go Cougs!

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

Nah. I was involved with two different forums that required some kind of donation drive or squabbling over things like adverts and memberships. The bills average ~150 a month and I can cover it without any issue, so that can rule out a lot of drama. The real reason why some of the upgrades have dragged on or why @hawkstwelve doesn't have SSH access yet is that my time seems to be feast or famine, especially with a kid, a job at FAANG Co, and a side project/startup/fever dream.

I still have a kanban board with the following:
- recovering deleted posts from the April 2023 forum hack
- merging westernwx.info forum
- cleaning up storage (unlimited storage is the largest driver of costs, thats why I don't like it when Phil uploads a 40 minutes 8k iPhone video of flurries)
- setting up YVR/SEA/PDX High Res WRF and local Graphcast
- write a "Looking back on 10 years" post

I'll get to this sooner or later.

That all sounds great as far as eventual goals. But I wouldn’t feel too rushed with them, the lack of free time is understandable. It’s just appreciated that you keep this place running period.

[TT-SEA]

EPS is still showing troughing across almost all of the country in the long range.  

[iFred]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

EPS is still showing troughing across almost all of the country in the long range.  

I can already see the flurry of self proclaimed professional storm chasers readying their drones and twitter quips on why it was ok for them to do 90 in a 35.

[the_convergence_zone]

16 minutes ago, iFred said:

Nah. I was involved with two different forums that required some kind of donation drive or squabbling over things like adverts and memberships. The bills average ~150 a month and I can cover it without any issue, so that can rule out a lot of drama. The real reason why some of the upgrades have dragged on or why @hawkstwelve doesn't have SSH access yet is that my time seems to be feast or famine, especially with a kid, a job at FAANG Co, and a side project/startup/fever dream.

I still have a kanban board with the following:
- recovering deleted posts from the April 2023 forum hack
- merging westernwx.info forum
- cleaning up storage (unlimited storage is the largest driver of costs, thats why I don't like it when Phil uploads a 40 minutes 8k iPhone video of flurries)
- setting up YVR/SEA/PDX High Res WRF and local Graphcast
- write a "Looking back on 10 years" post

I'll get to this sooner or later.

I respect this, I've felt the same about not wanting to deal with revenue streams from side projects. Then it becomes a "side hustle" which makes it feel too much like work to me, with obligations and deadlines and stuff. 

It's awesome what you have accomplished...I have bits and pieces of code written for various climatological analyses that I have done but have never gotten around to turning it into something organized that can run in the background. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just saw that all those inter-hourly 39s weren’t fake and PDX actually hit it this morning. SCORE.

[Phil]

This is a legit multistep final warming. Just wish it could’ve happened a month earlier.

PV started off strong in Nov/Dec but it became increasingly disheveled under +WAFz. Interesting evolution.