May 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Weather like that is historically pretty typical for the first half of May. It’s definitely becoming less common though, so people are adjusting their expectations.

Saturday looks like a day that could be pretty exceptional for early May by historical standards. Both for temps and precip.

[Meatyorologist]

18z GFS makes me actually so mad. Saturday's system clouds us up while cutting off the rain right across the sound. Hate you too, mother nature. No sun OR wetting rain! Amazing. Worst of both worlds

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z GFS makes me actually so mad. Saturday's system clouds us up while cutting off the rain right across the sound. Hate you too, mother nature. No sun OR wetting rain! Amazing. Worst of both worlds

January 13, 2024 spring edition.

[Meatyorologist]

All guidance has some fairly prolific PSCZ activity over Seattle next week, under strong, cool NW flow. From experience these PSCZ's are usually overdone by global models, hopefully we get one to sit overhead and even the deficit just a tad. The front ahead of next week's airmass is rain shadow-y weak sauce so it'll be up to the postfrontal convection. Never a good sign to rely on that.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

23 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m older than most here and my first visit to Yellowstone was in the late 1960’s. There were plenty of idiots trying to hand-feed the bears. Got to see more than a few. (There were enough idiots hand-feeding bears out of their car windows that the bears learned to associate roads with food, and would hang out along them awaiting handouts. The practice only stopped when the Park Service killed all the habituated bears and cracked down hard on visitors feeding bears. I think this happened circa 1980.

Here’s one photo I trolled up from a quick web search. Looks very familiar. And it is easy to find hundreds of such photos.

 

Smokey Bear was just trying to spread his message to the tourist.

[TT-SEA]

39 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z GFS makes me actually so mad. Saturday's system clouds us up while cutting off the rain right across the sound. Hate you too, mother nature. No sun OR wetting rain! Amazing. Worst of both worlds

Totally agree... if its going to be cloudy and 50 degrees in May it might as well be pouring rain.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

38/67 for the day. Warmer than I expected this afternoon given the chilly start this morning.

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

38/67 for the day. Warmer than I expected this afternoon given the chilly start this morning.

Truck thermometer said it was 70F this afternoon while I was driving around.  Probably more likely 68 or 69.  Pretty warm given the frosty start this morning 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z GFS makes me actually so mad. Saturday's system clouds us up while cutting off the rain right across the sound. Hate you too, mother nature. No sun OR wetting rain! Amazing. Worst of both worlds

Euro looks a bit wetter for the weekend at least. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 61/44 spread here. Overnight rain then partly to mostly sunny skies through early afternoon, followed by another band of showers from the NNE that brought moderate rain mid afternoon. 

Clearing out nicely this evening though, with cool temps. 49 degrees currently.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Off topic....

Keep it classy Florida.. 

 

[Meatyorologist]

39 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Off topic....

Keep it classy Florida.. 

 

sociopaths sure know how to have fun!

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Off topic....

Keep it classy Florida.. 

 

That video is being talked about everywhere in the boating forums right now, hopefully these D-Bags are identified…Not that much would happen but with this video becoming so viral hopefully they will be at least massively publicly shamed. 
 

[ShawniganLake]

69/35 here today.   Brilliant clear blue skies with an occasionally gusty NE breezy.  

[ShawniganLake]

Models tonight have really pulled back on the amount of moisture making it this far north on Saturday.  Looking like it could end up being a dry day. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

First leg done. In the Denver airport and it’s a nice airport I gotta say. Flight for NOLA leaves at 7AM.

[the_convergence_zone]

So close to getting some drought relief, but it is increasingly looking like the Seattle area will get skunked this weekend. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

So close to getting some drought relief, but it is increasingly looking like the Seattle area will get skunked this weekend. 

Its essentially a deformation zone tomorrow on the north side of the ULL to the south... and deformation zones often end up farther north than the models indicate.  

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

So close to getting some drought relief, but it is increasingly looking like the Seattle area will get skunked this weekend. 

I’m in the darkest shade of grey! 

[MossMan]

Spectacular morning! 

[the_convergence_zone]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It’s essentially a deformation zone tomorrow on the north side of the ULL to the south... and deformation zones often end up farther north than the models indicate. 

We’ll see. Light precipitation events in spring almost always go the opposite way, the models have over predicted every single storm this spring at my location. The bigger one in late April was the only one that came close to the forecast. 

[RaleighHillsRunner]

39 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Spectacular morning! 

Agreed, glorious and cool out there. Rain looks to start early afternoon for us, curious to see how wet tomorrow ends up. Happy Friday all!

[TT-SEA]

Unbelievable precip gradient on the 12Z GFS.

[Phishy Wx]

lol looks like we'll get skunked, Again

[Phishy Wx]

Maybe our actual rain gets here on Sunday.  looks like its still in the forecast, we need it

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

11 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Off topic....

Keep it classy Florida.. 

 

They got arrested/fined for this.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Unbelievable precip gradient on the 12Z GFS.

Bummer

[Cascadia_Wx]

15 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Saturday looks like a day that could be pretty exceptional for early May by historical standards. Both for temps and precip.

Let’s see what actually happens that day.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Next weekend looks warm.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Next weekend looks warm.

Definitely going to be different!  

[Front Ranger]

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Unbelievable precip gradient on the 12Z GFS.

Wild. Not many times PDX sees 2"+ of rain and SEA sees around .10" from the same storm.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Wild. Not many times PDX sees 2"+ of rain and SEA sees around .10" from the same storm.

Bellingham might get totally skunked.  

[Tanis Leach]

Day 5

 

Vista on a de-ice hold,

Cascade on maintenence hold. 

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Bellingham might get totally skunked.  

6z Euro continued to be more generous for the Seattle area at least, compared to GFS. But the GEM also moved drier with the 12z run, so good chance the Euro does as well.

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Next weekend looks warm.

Finally! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Good chance we see our first 90 of the year by next weekend or early the following week. This ridge is looking roided up.

[the_convergence_zone]

26 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

6z Euro continued to be more generous for the Seattle area at least, compared to GFS. But the GEM also moved drier with the 12z run, so good chance the Euro does as well.

Still a ton of spread in the ensembles. Initially it looks like the frontal band will struggle to make it past Olympia but eventually KSEA could get a decent soaking. Still a few EPS members in the 1” range but I think 0.5” remains the most likely outcome at least for the airport. 

I would love at least 0.3” out of this, that will be enough to get everything nice and wet again. The sunnier spots in my yard are starting to look dry. 

[AlTahoe]

There hasn't been much to talk about down this way lately as April was very dry. But that looks to change with our snow totals increasing for tomorrow's storm. Now up to 6" for lake level. Will this be our last snow until next winter? It's looking that way on the long range models. Hopefully everyone scores some wet thunderstorms this summer!

[Cascadia_Wx]

The 12z GFS looks like hott garbage in the long range, but the ensemble and control look more reasonable.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Meanwhile a beautiful morning here with lots of sun ahead of the incoming system. Partly sunny and 59 currently.

Hit a chilly low of 41 this morning with even some dense fog around. I think the downpours before sunset last night followed immediately by clear skies set us up perfectly for some late spring fog.