Effective June 1, 2024, I will be the Secretary of the Oregon Chapter of the AMS.
Mark Nelsen has decided to step away from the executive committee, and I won the election between myself and Mike Krejci (runs weather-reporter.com and weathersigma.com (a new model site that is still being worked on) so check out his sites).
Back to civilization now after a successful 12 day climb of North America's tallest peak, Denali, home of some of the most extreme weather on the planet, with my 4 great friends Roger, Matt, Scott, and Aaron. For the first half of the climb we were very lucky with the weather and only needed 9 days to get enough good weather days to acclimatize and summit on the evening of the 20th. After we reached the summit we got about 20 minutes of clear sky -28 degree weather with light wind until a cloud
1988 was pretty torchy here, but 2010 wasn't bad at all.
I do expect a very warm June/July here though, opposite of last year. That was the case in 2020, 2016, and 1988.
We need troughing/cold fronts for severe weather out here. It’s always warm/unstable enough for convection in the summer, but without shear/kinematics it can’t organize and sustain.
Worst thing for thunderstorm activity is sitting under a giant ridge, capped into oblivion. Had a lot of that in 2011 and 2016. Grass went entirely brown by mid-July both years, and trees were dropping leaves by late July. This place dies without summer downpours.
Models not backing down on the ridiculous amounts of rain early next week. This is quite rare for this time of year, and even more rare with the cold air mass that is being progged. Since 1945 the only years the Puget Sound region has had excessive precip like what is being shown in the May 20 through June 10 period are 1968, 1969, 1985, 1987, 1990, and 2001. Of those only 2001 was accompanied by seriously below normal temps like this will be. None of those years was a good ENSO match.
Still time for this to fall through, but it's looking like it's going to happen.
This. Could have been a spring torch to put 2016 to shame.
The +ENSO fears were borne out of recency bias (1980s - 2000s) when teleconnections were unfavorable during niños. In reality these things are state dependent, 1960s/70s niños expressed much differently.
Recommended Posts
Posted by AlTahoe,
17 reactions
Go to this post
Posted by Tanis Leach,
Congrats!
Recommended by Meatyorologist
16 reactions
Go to this post
Posted by Phil,
Big month for the forums!
Recommended by Meatyorologist
13 reactions
Go to this post
Posted by Sunriver Snow Zone,
21 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.