Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: Because its "pretty". Like a snowflake..... DFW snow in October would be insane. 2 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: DFW snow in October would be insane. Exactly. I thought insane was a decent word too. Winter in 8 days....wow. One way or another, its pretty real even if it doesn't snow. Getting exactly what I asked for. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 ....the Bering Sea hasn't relented one ounce in 10 daye, either. There are still massive events going on up there nonstop. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 An actually good AFD from FGF, that's rare. Quote .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Several chances for snow are forecast within the long term, particularly around Tuesday, Thursday/Friday, and late this weekend into early next week. The colder than average temperature pattern is also likely to continue. Much of the northern CONUS will continue to be under the influence of upper troughing throughout next week and potentially into the following week. Varying solutions within the ensemble and deterministic suites have their own flavor of how amplified segments within the upper trough becomes along with passing embedded shortwaves. However general consensus is to bring a shot of precip mainly in the form of snow with each passing shortwave. General consensus is to have the first shortwave move east across the area around Tuesday. There are many similarities between this wave and Saturday`s wave, which means there still remains some inherent uncertainty revolving around exact placement, timing, and intensity of this upcoming clipper. But as it stands now, there is a general 1-4 swath forecast over the region, with best chances for highest amounts in the higher elevations of west-central Minnesota. Probably the biggest difference between this upcoming clipper and Saturday`s clipper is the lack of mesoscale forcing expected, or rather mesoscale forcing (fgen) is likely further displaced within southern MN. This typically increases trust in modeled QPF, although there still is some spread on the order of 0.1-0.25 inches of QPF within ensemble members, which could translate to giving or taking 1-3 inches in any given area. The next wave following more of a hybrid clipper-WY low system is progged to traverse the Dakotas into northern MN around Thursday/Friday. This system is expected to have more moisture content associated with it in addition to better synoptic and added mesoscale forcing. This would increase the upper range for snow potential, with even some models advertising a scary amount of snow well exceeding warning criteria. However a very large amount of uncertainty looms over this forecast with large spread in placement and amount of snow. Therefore, not buying into these large snow amounts at all..yet. Finally, several ensemble and deterministic members are starting to suggest a CO low type system to move into the Upper Midwest late next weekend into early next week. An even further amount of uncertainty accompanies this potential system, although it does increase the general potential for precipitation including snowfall. That is all I am confident in saying regarding this potential system. With the general upper troughing allowing polar type air to dive into the upper CONUS, below average temps will be likely at least through late next week and probably beyond. This increases the chance for snow with each shot of precip, but there is still some influence from a mid to late Oct sun in determining ptypes diurnally, ie better chance for snow at night with rain/snow during the day. 2 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post snowstorm83 Posted October 19, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 First flakes of the season falling onto Lincoln. It’s light and wet, but it’s snow. 6 4 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: GRR's AFD said they've ended frost/freeze season so no more headlines. Monday should be our first truly raw day around here. Thanks for the update amigo! Raw is the correct word to use my friend as temps will not recover from the 40s for highs, along w some wet weather and would not be surprised if a wet snowshower gets mixed in, especially towards the evening hours. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: First flakes of the season falling onto Lincoln. It’s light and wet, but it’s snow. Exactly......Enjoy it! Go outside and breathe that cold, snowy air. Tbh: I truly enjoy when snow is expected to develop and you can just smell the snow in the air, prior to its arrival. Great feeling! 5 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said: An actually good AFD from FGF, that's rare. Nice write-up. That is what I like to see during the cold, Winter months, especially during Christmas time. Unlike last year when my highs were in the 50s on Christmas Eve....... 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Currently, it is a very raw evening w readings in the low 40s and light drizzle. There is a breeze out there as well, which gives my area a wcf in the 30s. Dreary nite indeed. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 28 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: First flakes of the season falling onto Lincoln. It’s light and wet, but it’s snow. It's snowing lightly here in Southwest Omaha... nothing is sticking but it looks amazing watching the flakes fall in the glow of the street lights. 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 0.27" qpf from this evening's CF. Perhaps 0.6" on the week around here. Better than OH or IN I guess. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Had another quick one to two tenths on my way to work. The snow from y'day morning surprisingly made it all the way to mid afternoon when the sun came out, so they ground must not be that warm. Pavement is different deal. It's odd seeing snow events back to back like this in OCT. Looks like another round around sunrise. 2 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 00Z GFS back a bit south for next weekend's storm. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Shall we start our 1st storm thread of this early cold season??? Looks like raw guidance is upping the ante for our MN members...latest 00z Euro Op/EPS showing high end advisory??? 00z Ukie... 00z GFS... 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Looks like we will all be busy tracking storms over the next 7 days or so. Build a big glacier! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Point bumped up to 3-5” with heavy snow tomorrow. I’d go with the lower end of that based on a variety of things. But we’ll see. Looks fairly promising based on the relatively good model consensus. Tom I’d say fire up the first thread! 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 37 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said: Point bumped up to 3-5” with heavy snow tomorrow. I’d go with the lower end of that based on a variety of things. But we’ll see. Looks fairly promising based on the relatively good model consensus. Tom I’d say fire up the first thread! My 2 concerns here are speed of the system and surface temps. Those could kill totals here. Doesn't really matter, sunshine and highs near 40 on Wednesday are going to kill everything off anyway. Edit: Wow, didn't even see those 00Z runs. Guess it got colder at the surface because previously it was showing all rain for SoDak. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 I recorded 0.17" of rain fall yesterday. The overnight low here at my house is the current temperature of 35 (34.9) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 6Z Euro 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Started a thread for tomorrow's system 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 How’s everyone doing? Site looks great 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Saw my first flakes this morning! Light flurries when I got out of my car at work. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 This map is through October 28th. Let that sink in. October 28th and we have a snowfall map that looks more like December. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 6z GFS still wants to bring the weekend system through IA but looks a bit weaker this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 38 minutes ago, Money said: How’s everyone doing? Site looks great Not bad, hbu? Taking it day by day and thankful for my health. How was your summer? I think Appleton got hit pretty good a few times. Excited about this winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Des Moines NWS on this next weekend system: A vigorous short wave is on track to move across Iowa sometime Sunday and bring the next chance for precipitation. Thermal profiles would suggest this would be an accumulating snow event for parts of Iowa 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Moderate snow is being reported under the snow band moving across Iowa this morning. 2 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Looks like TS Epsilon will be next in line. Keep in mind, we are closing in closer to tieing the record, which was set back in 2005, when the names reached all the way to Zeta. Speaking of Zeta, there is a good chance that forms down the road, as the tropics are gearing up again. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Very calm air this morning. Almost zero wind and zero frost. 29.8*F. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Currently, temps are rather chilly here in SEMI, w 42F and sky conditions are reporting some light rain. It will be a gloomy, dreary October day, weatherwise. Some warmth is expected by weeks end (70s) and also along w that, comes some thunderstorms, which could be strong to severe as a sharp CF brings an end to the very mild air that will be poised here. I think, this will be the last of the 70s, for some time (probably until next year again), so might as well enjoy it and do some last minute activities around the house. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Pounding again. I wish I was just 10 miles N - where an easy 1-3" looks to be setting up on radar. Pics in a little. 1 1 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 At this time it is sunny here and 45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 .Not pounding as much as was just 10 mins ago and radar looks N for the best. But hey, it's OCT and the wood stove is cranking!!! A plus in my book any day. 6 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said: .Not pounding as much as was just 10 mins ago and radar looks N for the best. But hey, it's OCT and the wood stove is cranking!!! A plus in my book any day. You're off to a great start already this season! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, james1976 said: You're off to a great start already this season! Let's hope it's more like 2009 OCT, than OCT of last year. ( for the following winter) Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 DSM airport just hit 31F. First sub 32F reading of the season. And it happened at 11AM. I wanna know when the last time THAT happened. 4 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 I'm at work in Cedar Rapids (and finally in our new building I have a window in my office so I can see it snow!). Radar looks great here, but dry air is winning out. Hopefully it saturates soon, I'd love to see some flakes fly. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, bud2380 said: I'm at work in Cedar Rapids (and finally in our new building I have a window in my office so I can see it snow!). Radar looks great here, but dry air is winning out. Hopefully it saturates soon, I'd love to see some flakes fly. Congrats on the window. Yeah, the air is dry. The wind is also from the northeast, so the snow will need to move solidly through Cedar Rapids before it reaches the ground here. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Definitely looks to be a system around the 26th-27th. GFS wants to go more south. Last night's CMC was stronger and a bit more north. Prolly the next one to really watch after this week's clipper. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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