MR.SNOWMIZER Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 It's going to snow. The 18z is very impressive and is a text book pattern as Jim mentioned. Looks like a December map. 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 hours ago, snow_wizard said: Speaking of snow...one of my favorites in recent times was the Christmas snow of 2017. That is a case where everything went absolutely right and we got more snow than we really had a right to. That one was a two parter for my area and both halves went perfectly. Part 1 was on Christmas Eve Day and it was an overrunning situation where it was JUST cold enough for the precip to be of decent quality snow. We picked up about an inch and a quarter from that. Part two came late Christmas Eve and Christmas Morning and was caused by the cold backwash from a surface low that tracked east of the Cascades a bit south of Seattle. We got 3 inches from that with the heaviest snow falling just after sunrise on Christmas Morning. Probably the most enjoyable snow event of any Christmas for me and it was a total case of threading the needle. 2008 had more snow on the ground on Christmas, but it was wet and not as pretty as 2017. December 25 2017 was nice...But December 25 2008 was epic! Heavy snow falling Christmas morning on top of several feet that had been piling up for a few weeks. 2 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 9 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: No NAM maps. Feels like Rob is slacking a little. This morning I went out exploring outside of Estacada for hunting and shooting areas, but all that happened is I ended up sick all day with vertigo.... I am sorry the forum went NAM-less today. Speaking of.... 00z NAM in 1 hour 6 minutes C'MON!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 I wonder if there are any photos of EUG’s last white Christmas from 29 years ago? 3 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Sorry guys...Looks like warm ridging will take over the models this evening since I did this today... 1 1 2 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Hmmm, should I start getting moderately exciting for some chilly easterlies? 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Hard to believe it was just a little over a month ago I was running the impact sprinklers in my bark beds since I was worried that my area was going to spontaneously combust...Now I’m clearing my drainage ditches with already water flowing in them. 1.42” so far on the day. Currently cloudy and 54. 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Looks like a high of 71 at HIO today, good for our last 70 of the year. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Another thing I find odd...Everyone agrees that the smoke was awful last month...But what does everyone do when the burn ban is lifted...Yep they burn wet brush which just makes for this heavy stinky bad air quality. I don’t get it. At least wait until spring to give our lungs a chance to recover. 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, MossMan said: Another thing I find odd...Everyone agrees that the smoke was awful last month...But what does everyone do when the burn ban is lifted...Yep they burn wet brush which just makes for this heavy stinky bad air quality. I don’t get it. At least wait until spring to give our lungs a chance to recover. I think you have a really local issue there. I have not seen or smelt any smoke anywhere for weeks. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 18z GFS Ensembles (850s / Precip) Yakima - Mean temp around -9c with solid agreement of members down to -12c. Wow. Imagine if this were 1-2 months from now we would be talking about a bitter backdoor blast for the Columbia Basin. C'MON!!!! 00z NAM in 18 minutes 00z GFS in 2 hours 5 minutes 00z GEM/CMC in 2 hours 38 minutes 00z ECMWF 4 hours 22 minutes 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 6:26 PM Radar Update Nice downpour east of Brush Prairie, Battle Ground. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 18z GFS Ensembles (850s / Precip) Yakima - Mean temp around -9c with solid agreement of members down to -12c. Wow. Imagine if this were 1-2 months from now we would be talking about a bitter backdoor blast for the Columbia Basin. C'MON!!!! 00z NAM in 18 minutes 00z GFS in 2 hours 5 minutes 00z GEM/CMC in 2 hours 38 minutes 00z ECMWF 4 hours 22 minutes What link do you view those Ensemble charts in English? Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said: What link do you view those Ensemble charts in English? https://www.wetterzentrale.de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=136221&lid=ENS&bw=1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I think you have a really local issue there. I have not seen or smelt any smoke anywhere for weeks. My neighbor to the north and to the south...All weekend. And I think the tree farm as well. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 18z GFS Ensembles (850s / Precip) Portland - Mean temp bottoms out at -5c, cluster of members -5c to -10c. Seattle - Mean temp -5c, large cluster of members -4c to -8c. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I think you have a really local issue there. I have not seen or smelt any smoke anywhere for weeks. He's not alone. Same thing happened here last night. A few people must've been burning during the day then the smell got entrenched when the wind went stagnant at night. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 A 55/48 day here. Amazing how much warmer it’s been in the Willamette Valley. 3 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: A 55/48 day here. Amazing how much warmer it’s been in the Willamette Valley. Was about 65 here today. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Nice sunset tonight. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Got to 70F here. Still feels like summer just with longer nights. We are about +8F on the day and still running a solid +4.6F for the month. Boring. 2 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said: Looks like a high of 71 at HIO today, good for our last 70 of the year. Wow, we only got up to the upper 50s. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Mild and breezy this evening at 59 degrees. Up to 2.81” of rain on the month after this mornings rain. Gfs and euro show about 1/2” of rain over the next 10 days so likely won’t be above average rainfall this month. Atleast we will finally be getting some chilly weather soon. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, MossMan said: Another thing I find odd...Everyone agrees that the smoke was awful last month...But what does everyone do when the burn ban is lifted...Yep they burn wet brush which just makes for this heavy stinky bad air quality. I don’t get it. At least wait until spring to give our lungs a chance to recover. I have been burning all day. Been waiting all summer to burn, if that bothers you go live in town. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I have been burning all day. Been waiting all summer to burn, if that bothers you go live in town. No. Why burn when it’s sopping wet and what you are burning is sopping wet. Wait until the spring for things to dry a bit. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: I think you have a really local issue there. I have not seen or smelt any smoke anywhere for weeks. You have land, but you do not really seem to live in a rural area. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, MossMan said: No. Why burn when it’s sopping wet and what you are burning is sopping wet. Wait until the spring for things to dry a bit. It isn't sopping wet here in Oregon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: It isn't sopping wet here in Oregon. Haven’t you guys had enough smoke? 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: It isn't sopping wet here in Oregon. True, it was a bit breezy today too. Blew the smoke right on out of here. Some people complain about chimney smoke too. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, MossMan said: No. Why burn when it’s sopping wet and what you are burning is sopping wet. Wait until the spring for things to dry a bit. We are in severe drought here. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Extreme drought in Eugene. Severe here. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 At face value the 18z GFS had three consecutive days with sub 50 highs for SEA and four consecutive days of sub 40 lows. Pretty solid stuff! 2 1 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 45 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Extreme drought in Eugene. Severe here. Only moderate in Washington County! I think that's because of a resolution issue, though. The water deficit map shows a very clear NW flow signature and this area is shadowed by NW flow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 00z GFS Day 3, 4 Day 4 past 4 runs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 GFS looks like it is going to be further east with the cold trough. We shall see... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 00z Significantly weaker with the high latitude blocking. Won't be quite as as cold... Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Day 5 850s past 4 runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Looks more like the euro. No snow on the pumpkin. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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