October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My earliest accumulating snow was mid-November 2015. Low hanging fruit, we will beat that date one of these years. 

[FroYoBro]

14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

If there is decent Fraser outflow I might make my way up to Bellingham.

Wow, we are jinxing this winter very early this year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Very interesting, people said those very things before 1949-50, 2008-09, 1996-97, 1968-69, 2016-17, 2018-19, 1988-89, 1985-86..........

Nice to see a Puget Sound poster finally acknowledging 2016-17 as a good winter. To be fair, it left a ton on the table, so at the time it was slightly disappointing. As time goes by it will seem more and more special. 

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My earliest accumulating snow was mid-November 2015. Low hanging fruit, we will beat that date one of these years. 

Dang we had measurable snow here 11/3/17. You’ll definitely beat that mark set in 2015 sometime soon...hopefully this year. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The operational is one of many increasing coldmembers.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice to see a Puget Sound poster finally acknowledging 2016-17 as a good winter. To be fair, it left a ton on the table, so at the time it was slightly disappointing. As time goes by it will seem more and more special. 

That was a very good winter. We had 3” of snow here in December then 5” during the Super Bowl in February. January was pretty cold but no snow that month here. It was actually slightly colder than 08-09 at my location. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Dang we had measurable snow here 11/3/17. You’ll definitely beat that mark set in 2015 sometime soon...hopefully this year. 

The morning of 11/6/17 here...

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice to see a Puget Sound poster finally acknowledging 2016-17 as a good winter. To be fair, it left a ton on the table, so at the time it was slightly disappointing. As time goes by it will seem more and more special. 

Results-based analysis is stupid. Just because you don't see snow at your house doesn't mean nobody else did, or that you wouldn't have in an even *slightly* different situation. Jan 2017 was top-tier for consistent cold, and very well could have been a good snow month up this way. Random chance just dictated that the right orientation of blocking, disturbances, and moisture never added up. And we STILL got snowflakes.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My earliest accumulating snow was mid-November 2015. Low hanging fruit, we will beat that date one of these years. 

There was one mid-late-ish November in Eugene back in 2003 while we were rehearsing marching band and it became a non-starter to practice proper drill on it lol. It was the first snow since like Feb 1996 at that time. Massively skewed the EUG record books in a negative direction.

[Jesse]

18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Results-based analysis is stupid. Just because you don't see snow at your house doesn't mean nobody else did, or that you wouldn't have in an even *slightly* different situation. Jan 2017 was top-tier for consistent cold, and very well could have been a good snow month up this way. Random chance just dictated that the right orientation of blocking, disturbances, and moisture never added up. And we STILL got snowflakes.

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In 9 years the only significant snowfall we have had here in November was in 2011. There were however, significant snow events here in 2010 and 2006. 

[TT-SEA]

31 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Going retro again! 

I'll go out on a limb and say that the 12z EPS caves today.

Not quite... the 12Z EPS still shows a ridge building starting in the middle of next week.    It does show a transitory shot of cool air into the Great Plains around day 11 and 12.   

 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

NCEP outlooks show another warmer/drier than average period coming after some of this rainfall.

Kek reactions on that for sure.

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In 9 years the only significant snowfall we have had here in November was in 2011. There were however, significant snow events here in 2010 and 2006. 

2011 I had maybe 5-6 inches but wasn't a real stormy one down here. Nothing compared to the 17-18 inches of Nov 2010. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Though 2016-17 lacked a top tier regional arctic blast, there were some really impressive monthly minimums in January. Coldest January lows in decades for some locations. 

PDX 11

SLE 14

EUG 13

MDF 6

[Jesse]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

Going retro again! 

I'll go out on a limb and say that the 12z EPS caves today.

The 12z EPS was step in the right direction. Although if you dig for the right map it will still show soothing orange over us, since 850s/500mb heights can technically be above average even in a retrogression pattern.

These problems compound when you are averaging out a seven day period in the clown range, which means the map will effectively tell you nothing about the day to day details of the pattern. Orange though!

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Though 2016-17 lacked a top tier regional arctic blast, there were some really impressive monthly minimums in January. Coldest January lows in decades for some locations. 

PDX 11

SLE 14

EUG 13

MDF 6

-19 on Jan 6 here.

Interesting also how 2 of the 5 coldest temperatures recorded at KLMT happened in the last 7 years.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It was step in the right direction. Although if you dig for the right map it will still show comforting orange over us since 500mb heights can technically be above average even in a retrogression pattern.

Ad hominen as usual. 

Not digging... its the same map from previous runs.   And the EPS actually shows a progressive pattern throughout the entire run.   The ridge is breaking down from the west at the end of the run.  

I showed cool and troughy maps from the EPS just last week for this upcoming period which in fact will be cool and troughy.   Always have to make it personal even though I have no problem showing maps that are not warm.

Cold fetishes are embraced here... warm fetishes not so much!  Although I do have lots more company in the real world. 

 

[Deweydog]

2016-17.

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The 12z EPS was step in the right direction. Although if you dig for the right map it will still show soothing orange over us, since 850s/500mb heights can technically be above average even in a retrogression pattern.

These problems compound when you are averaging out a seven day period, which means the map will effectively tell you nothing about the day to day details of the pattern. Orange though!

Exactly.  This sh*t is getting seriously old.  Constant pushing of an orange agenda while in reality it has been a very chilly fall.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

2016-17.

Crazy that that winter never gets mentioned around here. It was alright!

 

[Jesse]

Overcast and still just 61 here. Nice to have it seasonably cool today. And without any smoky assistance!

[Kayla]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not quite... the 12Z EPS still shows a ridge building starting in the middle of next week.    It does show a transitory shot of cool air into the Great Plains around day 11 and 12.   

Signal isn't quite as strong though and everything is shifting slightly further west. Just a matter of time now...

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Exactly.  This  is getting seriously old.  Constant pushing of an orange agenda while in reality it has been a very chilly fall.

He just can't help but make it personal.   As reliable as the changing seasons and our warming climate.  

[Jesse]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Exactly.  This  is getting seriously old.  Constant pushing of an orange agenda while in reality it has been a very chilly fall.

Yeah yeah. All I’m saying is those smoothed maps don’t tell you much when people are looking for specific pattern details. Like whether or not the idea of retrogression is supported.

Its a tool like any other. There are times when it’s good/useful and times when it isn’t.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

THE EPS long range shows a weak signal for high pressure, but not a death ridge and temps are slightly above normal toward the end of the period.  Maybe some conflicting signals canceling each other out?  Pretty benign after the next week.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Signal isn't quite as strong though and everything is shifting slightly further west. Just a matter of time now...

Time will tell.   Eventually it will happen!

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yeah yeah. All I’m saying is those smoothed maps don’t tell you much when people are looking for specific pattern details. Like whether or not the idea of retrogression is supported.

Its a tool like any other. There are times when it’s good/useful and times when it isn’t.

You mean digging to find what you want?

Its been very useful for the last few months.  More so than usual.

I think even Jim would struggle to call this a retrograding pattern.

 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

THE EPS long range shows a weak signal for high pressure, but not a death ridge and temps are slightly above normal toward the end of the period.  Maybe some conflicting signals canceling each other out?  Pretty benign after the next week.

Most signs currently point to a pretty progressive pattern. Ideal for mid fall.

[Timmy Supercell]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Crazy that that winter never gets mentioned around here. It was alright!

 

The most consistent winter I've had in the 2010's probably. There wasn't a single dry month in there, even '10-'11 or '11-'12 both featured a bone-dry month. Not 16-17.

[Jesse]

31 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The 12z EPS was step in the right direction. Although if you dig for the right map it will still show soothing orange over us, since 850s/500mb heights can technically be above average even in a retrogression pattern.

These problems compound when you are averaging out a seven day period in the clown range, which means the map will effectively tell you nothing about the day to day details of the pattern. Orange though!

 

17 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Signal isn't quite as strong though and everything is shifting slightly further west. Just a matter of time now...

Yeah like I was saying you miss little details like that depending on how the info is presented.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

71F and beautiful.  Hopefully will be able to see a VERY red Mars rise at around midnight and should be glorious as we get to the 1-2 AM time-frame during the night shift. Earth is the closest to Mars it will be until 2035.

[TT-SEA]

58 minutes ago, Jesse said:

 

Yeah like I was saying you miss little details like that depending on how the info is presented.

You mean digging to find something very specific that you want... and find comforting?    

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Jesse said:

These problems compound when you are averaging out a seven day period in the clown range, which means the map will effectively tell you nothing about the day to day details of the pattern. Orange though!

And yet... how did I manage to post 5 and 7-day maps last week from the EPS that were chilly?    Explain?

In that case... the 7-day maps looked cool because each of the 7 days in that period were cool on those runs.   It turned out to be meaningful too because that cool period is starting now as it showed.   Pretty informative actually! 

Here is the entire 12Z EPS... frame by frame.    Maybe a retrogression signal if you really, really dig.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still quite foggy. 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Still quite foggy. 

 

If only you could donate fog. GoFogMe?

[Deweydog]

Retrogression.

[ttt]

My kind of weather  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the 18z goes bananas with ridging in the long range again. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the 18z goes bananas with ridging in the long range again. 

The long range GFS is just meaningless wild swings.  The EPS will guide you much better unless you just like living in the fantasy of the "good" runs!