October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The long range GFS is just meaningless wild swings.  The EPS will guide you much better unless you just like living in the fantasy of the "good" runs!

I do. We've been over this before. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I do. We've been over this before. 

Ahhh... bravo then!

[Deweydog]

So are we setting the EPS on fire or not?

[Jesse]

Refreshingly cool out there. Nice day.

[Jesse]

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

So are we setting the EPS on fire or not?

You often struggle with nuance.

[Deweydog]

17 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You often struggle with nuance.

[Winterdog]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The long range GFS is just meaningless wild swings.  The EPS will guide you much better unless you just like living in the fantasy of the "good" runs!

I bet you are thinking the EPS is consistent. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Acer said:

I bet you are thinking the EPS is consistent. 

It is.    And it was consistent showing this upcoming cool and wet period as well... even 10 days ago.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, iFred said:

Which is why I agree with you in that anyone posting anything else must be muted for 1 week.

I never said that.  I posted snow maps from the 12Z GFS myself!   Its part of the fun here.    Jesse is the one who took issue with the EPS maps.  He was fine with my GFS maps though... interesting. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

EPS has been consistent over the last few days.  But it did flip flop a few days ago.

3.5 days ago:

Today, same period;

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

EPS has been consistent over the last few days.  But it did flip flop a few days ago.

3.5 days ago:

Today, same period;

Yeah... that was a pretty big flip on all the models.    The is no doubt that Jim jinxed it... and Jesse saw it coming too and warned him.  

[Jesse]

Love the new troll react Fred.

Oops, I just realized we lost the confused react though. I’m now more mixed on this change...

[snow drift]

3 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Crazy that that winter never gets mentioned around here. It was alright!

 

2016-17 is a great winter. I would prefer another weak La Nina like that one. This one could be an onshore flow poopfest. Let's hope it weakens.

[Jbolin]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Love the new troll react Fred.

Noice!

[MossMan]

Might be a good weekend for a drive up to the top of Hwy 20! 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... that was a pretty big flip on all the models.    The is no doubt that Jim jinxed it... and Jesse saw it coming too and warned him.  

The EPS occasionally flip flops, but not run to run like the GEFS does.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

The EPS occasionally flip flops, but not run to run like the GEFS does.

It can definitely happen.

[snow drift]

One year ago tonight, we were hit with some early Autumn snow.

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

One year ago tonight, we were hit with some early Autumn snow.

I believe that was one of the earliest snowfalls on record for Spokane.

[Timmy Supercell]

19 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

2016-17 is a great winter. I would prefer another weak La Nina like that one. This one could be an onshore flow poopfest. Let's hope it weakens.

I believe the storms that hit Medford/K-Falls on Jan 3rd-4th was westerly flow. Not always a killer for snow.

[Jbolin]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I believe that was one of the earliest snowfalls on record for Spokane.

Feel free to correct me but I believe the earliest snowfall for Spokane was back in 1926 (September 23rd)?

[Timmy Supercell]

6 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Feel free to correct me but I believe the earliest snowfall for Spokane was back in 1926 (September 23rd)?

Partially correct in that it isn't the earliest. But they broke a monthly September snowfall record which was originally set in 1926. I dug up a facebook post of mine from last year (09/28/2019)

"A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 1.9 INCHES WAS SET AT THE SPOKANE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS IS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL RECORDED ON THIS DATE SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN TAKEN IN SPOKANE BEGINNING IN JANUARY OF 1881. THIS SNOWFALL TOTAL ALSO BESTS THE PREVIOUS MONTHLY SNOWFALL RECORD OF 1.4 INCHES SET DURING A ONE DAY SNOW EVENT IN 1926."

[Timmy Supercell]

74/28 KLMT!

Hitting the 20's now! 

[Timmy Supercell]

42 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Love the new troll react Fred.

Oops, I just realized we lost the confused react though. I’m now more mixed on this change...

I do want the Kek react back as well..

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

I do want the Kek react back as well..

Trollface is good too.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Wow, got warm in here with the sun blasting in all afternoon. Had to turn the a/c on.

High of 75ºF, +7 over guidance.

Yup. Not planning to take it out until tomorrow evening. Will be the latest ever.

[Jesse]

A cool and overcast 62/55 here today.

Sun is coming out now a little before sunset.

[Timmy Supercell]

There's definitely something to latitude vs. altitude in snow events. I have yet to see measurable snow earlier than about Oct 30th (2011) at my place. And for snow to be on the ground on Halloween day is almost unheard of here, that must have been 20-30 years back in this area.

[Chewbacca Defense]

8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Trollface is good too.

Its gonna get wore out in the first 24 hours!

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Its gonna get wore out in the first 24 hours!

Let's see a Pepe react! 

I might even bring back my headbanging frog gif from a few years back 

[Winterdog]

64/56. This is starting to look like a warm, winter crushing October.

[MossMan]

Drizzle finally ended. 

.10” on the day. 

[Omegaraptor]

High of 64 which is lower than forecast, which I somewhat expected. 

Low of 55 is a +13 at HIO.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Rather get this dry and warm weather out of the way now. We are due for a November/December snowstorm

[Winterdog]

20 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Drizzle finally ended. 

.10” on the day. 

Wow.  Not a schmizzle of drizzle today and a balmy 64.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Acer said:

Wow.  Not a schmizzle of drizzle today and a balmy 64.

Wow! Had a high of 57 and currently sitting at 56 here. I must be beating you on rainfall for the month now! 

[Jesse]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Rather get this dry and warm weather out of the way now. We are due for a November/December snowstorm

We have never had a November/December snowstorm after a cool and wet October. Fact.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Had a high of 68F here, roughly inline with what we've seen the past 5 days in spite of the odd bout of fog. The 12z showed quite the early season overrunning even for the island, then the 18z took it all away . 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

17 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Had a high of 68F here, roughly inline with what we've seen the past 5 days in spite of the odd bout of fog. The 12z showed quite the early season overrunning even for the island, then the 18z took it all away . 

 

On 28 October 1991, Bellingham scored 2" of snow. So it can happen in October (but it’s pretty D**n unusual). And yes, I know that map shows nothing accumulating at sea level.

[MossMan]

A few of my notable earliest events over the last few years in pictures...