December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Has anyone checked on Jim?

This dovetails nicely with pineapples for Christmas. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

1999-2000.

Mt. Baker did well! Think I might have had some snow in January...Maybe? Memories are vague during that time period. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

1999-2000.

I think it was in the mid-50s on the night of the millennium. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think it was in the mid-50s on the night of the millennium. 

I remember around New Years the models were pretty hot on the idea of a significant blast.  On the reanalysis you can clearly see where it went awry.

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Mt. Baker did well! Think I might have had some snow in January...Maybe? Memories are vague during that time period. 

January wasn’t horrible on the macro level.  Details just sucked for the most part for us valley dwellers.

Nice windstorm on the 16th!

[Deweydog]

I had forgot how blocky/+PNA the last part of December 1999 was.

[JW8]

Probably already shared, but Cliff weighs in: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/12/a-strengthening-la-nina-what-does-that.html

This map doesn't look too bad...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The New Year's torch I'm thinking of must have been 1997. January 2000 was actually fairly normal and fairly wet. Was some decent snow up here. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, JW8 said:

Probably already shared, but Cliff weighs in: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/12/a-strengthening-la-nina-what-does-that.html

This map doesn't look too bad...

That map shows Santa Barbara getting a dusting. Not. Gonna. Happen.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The New Year's torch I'm thinking of must have been 1997. January 2000 was actually fairly normal and fairly wet. Was some decent snow up here. 

I remember being at the coast for New Years 1997 and it was super stormy.  

[AbbyJr]

 

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

That map shoes Santa Barbara getting a dusting. Not. Gonna. Happen.

Could be some resolution issues .  I wonder if that snow will accumulate on a frozen Strait of Georgia. Maybe 100” deep.  

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Could be some resolution issues .  I wonder if that snow will accumulate on a frozen Strait of Georgia. Maybe 100” deep.  

Well if the snow becomes deep enough, then everyone's at 5,000'...  

[Timmy Supercell]

It's almost noon and below freezing. Chilly day.

We got a good shot today at some accumulating snow. Ultimate question is how much moisture will be available.

[Weather1011]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

That map shows Santa Barbara getting a dusting. Not. Gonna. Happen.

So 50F and sunny? 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know Phil says we should not like to see Alaska get cold. BUT, it is nice to see someone have cold, and that cold PaulB posted about is centered in NW Canada. 

Alaska getting cold isn’t a bad thing by itself. It can be a good thing. It depends on the location of the TPV there and whether it’s aligned with the upper level vortex or disjointed/tilted with height (latter is true now).

Last year had a vertically stacked, circular PV lock in over Beaufort/N-AK. Which sucked. That’s not the case presently.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Weather1011 said:

So 50F and sunny? 

Like it or not, we see more of that than snow each winter.

[Jesse]

8 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

 

Is this a good sign for an SSW? If you could choose to be the top meteorologist in your field or get hit with an SSW which would you choose?? Phil???

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS...

[Meatyorologist]

Just took the time to check the 12z. Overall an enjoyable run that puked mountain snow, didn't torch the NW, and provided more moisture to the south into Oregon, where they desperately needed it.

Then to end the run, the cherry on top; an explosive block with a full-on jet stream buckle right to the east of the dateline, shunting southward vodka air; accompanied by reinforcing impulses coming off SE Asia w/ that recurring trough and associated offshore LW ridge. Too bad it ended where it did, otherwise we would have seen some pretty colorful maps...

Finally a decent run, one that actually shows some potential in the long range.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

31 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Could be some resolution issues .  I wonder if that snow will accumulate on a frozen Strait of Georgia. Maybe 100” deep.  

The Central Valley is pretty big, and it still shows Bakersfield getting 3–4". Addendum: Which has actually happened in the past, but it’s still definitely exceptional. About as exceptional as Bellingham getting the 3–4' it forecasts here, in fact.

[Weather1011]

28 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Like it or not, we see more of that than snow each winter.

You hear no complaints from me ! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some snow mixing in now. 

[GHweatherChris]

Positive splat test confirmed here!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Positive splat test confirmed here!

Looks like a vigorous line of precipitation over your area RIGHT NOW!

[Meatyorologist]

 

[GHweatherChris]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like a vigorous line of precipitation over your area RIGHT NOW!

Yep, temp was 40 an hour ago, dropped to 36 now under the band.

[Deweydog]

Feels like a ridgy period could be in the cards for post Xmas, New Years.

[Meatyorologist]

Some decent agreement with the OP on the GEFS ensemble suite. Not perfect, but close.

[Jesse]

Radar’s back up  

Been getting some pretty vigorous cold rainfall this morning. Already up to .20” today. 42 degrees.

[Jesse]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Feels like a ridgy period could be in the cards for post Xmas, New Years.

I think you just want to party like it’s 1999.

[Deweydog]

Just now, Jesse said:

I think you want to party like it’s 1999.

He’s dead.

I could be wrong, but I’ve been doing okay so far...

[Jesse]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

He’s dead.

I could be wrong, but I’ve been doing okay so far...

The whatever will upset Jim and crew the most forecasting method has a way of working out these days!!

[Deweydog]

Just now, Jesse said:

The whatever will upset Jim and crew the most forecasting method has a way of working out these days!!

You’re silly.

Mid winter ridging tends to be chilly and he likes chilly.

And coming out of a decent zonal pattern the skiing might be great.

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The Central Valley is pretty big, and it still shows Bakersfield getting 3–4". Addendum: Which has actually happened in the past, but it’s still definitely exceptional. About as exceptional as Bellingham getting the 3–4' it forecasts here, in fact.

Jan 1999 4-6" in Bakersfield! https://www.bakersfield.com/news/20-years-later-bakersfields-snow-day-lives-on-in-fond-memories/article_91cb890a-185c-11e9-aa6f-afd4c2cda9ab.html

[Deweydog]

Some pretty heavy sh*t moving in!

[Meatyorologist]

10 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Jan 1999 4-6" in Bakersfield! https://www.bakersfield.com/news/20-years-later-bakersfields-snow-day-lives-on-in-fond-memories/article_91cb890a-185c-11e9-aa6f-afd4c2cda9ab.html

Their last snow previous to that was in early February, 1989.

Gee, I wonder if there's any coincidence with that? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Jan 1999 4-6" in Bakersfield! https://www.bakersfield.com/news/20-years-later-bakersfields-snow-day-lives-on-in-fond-memories/article_91cb890a-185c-11e9-aa6f-afd4c2cda9ab.html

I remember that event. Was jealous given we had like an inch of snow in the mid-Willamette Valley that winter. 

[Weather1011]

Hail and heavy rain the past 30 minutes 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hit 38 for a high today. Currently 36 with moderate rain. A chunk here and there.