Long Range Discussion for Autumn and Winter

[Tom]

0z GFS continues to be nice in the long range. Cutter on the 31st through LSE, and then brings in the cold air (1040 H pressure) looks like highs in the low-mid 30's starting in Nov. 

Halloween snow flakes possible in the Plains!  Man, the CFSv2 was predicting this a month ago.  Here we go!

[Money]

GFS gets low temps down in the 15-20 degree range on the 5th. Highs don't reach 30 at all. 

[Tom]

GFS gets low temps down in the 15-20 degree range on the 5th. Highs don't reach 30 at all. 

It's like the mother load of early season cold unloads into the Midwest/Lakes!  Insanity if this even comes close this early.  Would be more of an open to December than November.  Another record breaking cold event?  We'll see how this evolves.

[Tom]

Alright guys, Wx Bell has released their updated winter forecast and they have centered the worst of the winter in the nations heartland into the OV.  This is pretty much what some of us have been discussing would be the epicenter of this coming winter using the LRC and the JAMSTEC/EURO long range models.  CFSv2 is still showing a blow torch winter and having its usual feedback problems and not reading the waters in the NE Pacific.  This model does better as the "target" month is approaching, for instance, what it is doing now in October for the lead month November.  I'll post these maps as well.  It is getting darn right cold now and snowy!

 

JB believes this winter could even get worse than last, because it has the possibility to cover more area with snow and brutal cold.  Some of the infamous winters of the late 70's may be what we experience.  I certainly am on that camp and that nation as a whole may certainly be under an expansive snow cover this winter which will lead to more cold, rather than warmth.

 

Keep in mind in the precip maps below, I remember last year the Midwest/Lakes were in the 133% of normal snowfall and we all know how that turned out.  This is an ominous looking snowfall prediction for the nation and maybe after all sudden done, this winter can be dubbed "The Ice Age".

 

BTW, check out the temp map on Wx Bell and the temp map on the CFSv2 come mid month....doesn't it look similar in its lay out???  Pay attention to that as we head into winter because I believe its a sign of nature showing us the temp pattern that is expected to come.

 

 

[Tom]

Euro ensembles continue to fall into place with the evolution of the winter pattern.  Check out the differences in the 5-day means for 00z 30 back on the 20th 00z run compared to last nights 00z run.  Notice the ridging that was farther west and south of Alaska, to the most recent run.  HUGE differences and many more ensembles are seeing the Alaskan ridge come into fruition as we head into November.  Also, did you see the trough building in the Bearing Sea on the most recent run???  Andrew eluded to the Bearing Sea rule many times in his posts and was worried about a warm winter due to the ridging that had developed there in recent weeks...not anymore!  The models are starting to hone in on a very wintry outlook for the month of November.  Good signs of things to come!

[Maxim]

A bit early to be calling for record breaking temps in early Nov. I know the cool shots have been rather impressive this year, but still.

[Money]

12z GFS showing snow in most of WI for the 31st

[james1976]

One of the reasons I come in here is to see all the maps that Tom posts. Thanks Tom!

[Tom]

One of the reasons I come in here is to see all the maps that Tom posts. Thanks Tom!

And the reasoning behind the predictions, not just posting maps....Thanks buddy!

[Tom]

A bit early to be calling for record breaking temps in early Nov. I know the cool shots have been rather impressive this year, but still.

If you can understand what the atmosphere is telling us, then yes, you can see the impressive cold coming.

[Tom]

Strat warming doing its job by displacing the coldest air at the 50-100mb level over Eurasia, right into North America.  I mentioned last week that there would be several possibilities of where it would go.  Now, GFS is predicting it to be centered right over North America in November.  Once that Alaskan ridge builds in, get your winter gear ready!

 

Check out the Siberian express daytime high temps begin predicted for Oct 29th!  Expansive cover of subzero high temps over Russia!

 

Edit: Click the link and check out the explosive SSW taking place right over the heart of Siberia.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

[East Dubzz]

Winter! Winter! Winter! Seriously, just want winter to get here already.

[Tom]

Clearly, you can see the ensembles plume of the ENSO region backing off quite a bit from their previous forecasts back in June from a moderate El Nino, to a more weak El Nino.  It may even lower some more, we'll see.

 

Remember NOAA screaming Super Nino back in March/April???  Typical gov't screaming Global Warming.

[Tom]

Wow, deep negative deviations from normal are starting to show up on the new CFSv2 run!  Very impressive...

[CentralNebWeather]

Tom, thank you for the work that you do.  I have learned not just to look at a map but to try and look for trends.  I get excited coming to this site daily.   I teach High School Social Studies to primarily 9th graders so this is my escape from that.  When I have my free period or lunch I check to see the latest information.  Really appreciate the work done here.

[james1976]

LOL..model flip flopping. GFS just went back to a warm long range.

[Niko]

A very nice article TO READ....Here we go folks!!!! Get your winter gear READY!!!!  Tom has been saying this now for a couple of months and BanGGGGG!!!

 

http://www.echoweather.com/2014/10/12/thoughts-on-the-upcoming-winter-2014-15/

 

A repeat of last years winter is on the way for this winter??!!! Could my area tie or possibly even exceed the record all time snowfall from last year of 95inches Again???!!!! I'd say....."YES." This time the Plains will get hard hit too.

[tim the weatherman]

A very nice article TO READ....Here we go folks!!!! Get your winter gear READY!!!!  Tom has been saying this now for a couple of months and BanGGGGG!!!

 

http://www.echoweather.com/2014/10/12/thoughts-on-the-upcoming-winter-2014-15/

 

A repeat of last years winter is on the way for this winter??!!! Could my area tie or possibly even exceed the record all time snowfall from last year of 95inches Again???!!!! I'd say....."YES." This time the Plains will get hard hit too.

thanks nikos for sharing this page and the way it looks that some areas will get a ton of snow this winter and i am saying that the great lakes and with other lakes rivers creeks and streams will froze over this winter with all of the artic air coming down from canada and it is possible that the polar vortex will sit over hudson and james bay for this winter and the way echo storm team has also has said that these areas will hav average to above avgerage to well above avgerage too.

[james1976]

I love how everyone's winter outlook is so much different from one another. Gonna be fun to see how this transpires.

[FiNsTa]

A very nice article TO READ....Here we go folks!!!! Get your winter gear READY!!!!  Tom has been saying this now for a couple of months and BanGGGGG!!!

 

http://www.echoweather.com/2014/10/12/thoughts-on-the-upcoming-winter-2014-15/

 

A repeat of last years winter is on the way for this winter??!!! Could my area tie or possibly even exceed the record all time snowfall from last year of 95inches Again???!!!! I'd say....."YES." This time the Plains will get hard hit too.

He tells weenies what they want to hear, and suckers like you eat it up.

[Maxim]

He tells weenies what they want to hear, and suckers like you eat it up.

lol

[Geos]

I think an ONI index of +0.6 is about as high as it will go through March. 

 

Looks like JB is hinting at a somewhat active sub tropical jet this winter, by looking at that snowfall map.

 

Snow cover and sea ice is expanding quickly!

 

[Tom]

The new JMA weeklies are in and there is a big flip in Week 2 & 3.  Last week, I was rather suspect to the massive ridge over the entire U.S. it was forecasting.  Look at the differences in the new weekly run.  The ridge is gone, but a pretty decent Bearing Sea trough is forming.  Right now the model isn't indicating any Alaskan ridge or blocking over the top, but watch for that ridge on the other side of the pole develop near the Yukon in future runs.

[Tom]

The CFS has been pounding away at the idea of a trough to develop to the SW of the GOA which is ironically where the long range models show the colder pool of water.  As I mentioned before, watch for that trough to develop down the road that pumps the ridge into Alaska/West Coast and creates that "wavy" jet stream pattern we have been used to since last year.  This is a significant cold signal for the central CONUS as we head into November.

[Niko]

He tells weenies what they want to hear, and suckers like you eat it up.

First of all....this is a board and we can post any weather stories we want too and second of all, by posting something that is forecasted down the road does not make you a weenie or a sucker.

[Tom]

Case study is working out as expected.  Check out the 00z 22nd Euro ensemble run with a ridge centered over the central CONUS, with a trough in the west AND the almighty Alaskan ridge.  When I saw that run a couple days ago, I new that it was suggesting a deeper trough in response to the ridge and center the trough in the central CONUS.  You saw the model sorta hinting at that by seeing the trough in Canada.

 

Now, fast forward to today's 12z run and voila, trough is centered farther west off the west coast, and a deeper eastern CONUS trough.  It may even center farther west than this run.

 

BTW, 12z Euro Control is getting OUTTA Control Day 15, something the CFS has been pounding away as well as we roll into the first week of November.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Nikos, the problem is when people tend to only post the long range models that fit their liking or agenda. Not sure who was even here in 2011-12, but that winter Tom was talking up winter as much as this year if I recall correctly and look what happened. He never forecasts warmth in winter, and so I'm not sure he is an unbiased source. Sorry Tom, but I don't buy your global cooling hype either, granted the global warmers go too far on the other extreme.

[Tom]

Nikos, the problem is when people tend to only post the long range models that fit their liking or agenda. Not sure who was even here in 2011-12, but that winter Tom was talking up winter as much as this year if I recall correctly and look what happened. He never forecasts warmth in winter, and so I'm not sure he is an unbiased source. Sorry Tom, but I don't buy your global cooling hype either, granted the global warmers go too far on the other extreme.

Wild, I remember 2011-12 quite well.  That was the first year I ever entered any forums in my life and the first time I ever posted my thoughts on long range forecasting.  You can betcha that I busted bad along with almost every other long range forecaster that year.  Over the last 3 years I have learned quite a bit regarding oceanic cycles, how to read the atmosphere, trends in the models and all sorts of interesting tricks of the trade on making predictions or forecasts.  Having said that, last year and this year, IMO, will have similar characteristics in setting up a winter pattern that won't have too many breaks in the cold pattern.  Once the warm PDO flips down the road, yes, we will certainly have warm winters or non winters but until then, I will drive the point that this winter will be one many will remember across the nation.  It may even be next year that we see a much different picture in our region.  Remember the late 70's when we had back to back severe winters?  Well, why not this year?  We wait and see.  Everyone has the right to their own opinion, I respect that to the utmost, heck, that is why we our having this discussion.

[Geos]

I think were repeating what happened in the late 70s with severe winters. In the 90s we had a lot of dud winters. 

 

That is one strong cold signal for the Midwest on the EURO ensembles control run! 

 

You park a strong Aleutian Low, a ridge will pump up along the West Coast with a trough further east. Now if there was a GOA low, then yeah, I would say get ready for some mild air. Everything is pointing towards another harsh winter, imo.

[Phil]

The Arctic hammer will probably drop in January w/ the SSW, but until then I'm not all that impressed. Overall, December looks like a classic Niño regime to me w/ the warmth centered over the Northern Plains.

[weatherfan2012]

November and december i could see it play out with a lot of up and downs swings with things averageing eather side of normal depending on if the warmth or the cold shots win out more but i tend to agree phil that base on anlogs the real deal comes late december or january.

[Maxim]

I really hope this isn't a 2012-2013 redux.

[GDR]

It's looking more and more that way! It's going to feel more like summer around my neck of the woods.

[GDR]

I hope accuweather is wrong! They think chicago will get less then 30 inches of the white stuff this winter.

[Maxim]

I hope accuweather is wrong! They think chicago will get less then 30 inches of the white stuff this winter.

That's like saying we're going to see exactly 14 days of 90 degree temps next summer.

[The Snowman]

FWIW, the second part of my extended forecast discussion: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/10/extended-forecast-discussion-part-2.html

[Tom]

Alright Plains folks, as we head into November, your chances of your first snows may be coming more clear in the long range.  The CFS has been pointing at a stormy open to the month of November for quite some time and its interesting enough to say that it correlates well with the East Asian Theory as there is a very strong system to hit the region on the 27th/28th.  Fast forward 6-10 days and there ya go...18z GFS is painting a rather significant storm system.

 

Edit: We may be starting our seasons first storm thread sometime late next week!

[The Snowman]

Alright Plains folks, as we head into November, your chances of your first snows may be coming more clear in the long range.  The CFS has been pointing at a stormy open to the month of November for quite some time and its interesting enough to say that it correlates well with the East Asian Theory as there is a very strong system to hit the region on the 27th/28th.  Fast forward 6-10 days and there ya go...18z GFS is painting a rather significant storm system.

 

Edit: We may be starting our seasons first storm thread sometime late next week!

A closer look using normalized 500mb height anomalies reveals more in detail how it's not a strong system crossing over Japan, but rather a strong upper level low displaced north of Japan that will likely bring cold air instead of a storm. Whether snow ends up falling is still in question, I suppose, but the Typhoon Rule would apply here for a strong upper level low in, say, Canada dropping cold air south.

 

Here's the 18z GFS panel. I can see where you're coming from with the thought that it's a strong storm in Japan, but that looks to be more byproduct lowering of heights over Japan due to that upper level low.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102500/gfs_z500a_sd_wpac_12.png

[Tom]

A closer look using normalized 500mb height anomalies reveals more in detail how it's not a strong system crossing over Japan, but rather a strong upper level low displaced north of Japan that will likely bring cold air instead of a storm. Whether snow ends up falling is still in question, I suppose, but the Typhoon Rule would apply here for a strong upper level low in, say, Canada dropping cold air south.

 

Here's the 18z GFS panel. I can see where you're coming from with the thought that it's a strong storm in Japan, but that looks to be more byproduct lowering of heights over Japan due to that upper level low.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102500/gfs_z500a_sd_wpac_12.png

Definitely looks like it will take a northerly route and maybe its the Upper Midwest that gets hit.  We'll see where the AO ends up being forecasted in this time frame as well to determine how far north or south it tracks.  Nonetheless, a shot of some cold will be in the cards but may not push as far east as say the OV or east coast.

[james1976]

Another winter forecast
http://www.midwestweather.org/2014/10/official-2014-2015-midwest-weather.html