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January 2021 Observations and Discussion


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Picked up 1.7" here in northern Macomb. Not sure how much fell in Detroit. Its a wet snow, so all trees are covered nicely, but w no arctic air in sight (just slightly above normal), this snow will barely hang on throughout the week. Temps in the 30s and lows in the 20s.

 

Attm, its 34F w cloudy skies.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Godddd I hate this season.

Quote

While a good shot of polar air would typically follow the passage of 
a system like this, a second, weaker shortwave is expected to be 
passing to the north of the international border at around the same 
time and will pretty effectively bar any significant cold air 
advection. As a result, high temperatures are still expected to 
remain in the 30s on Wednesday.

 

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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22 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Godddd I hate this season.

 

Its pathetic. Hopefully and I mean "hopefully", by the 3rd week of January, some colder air returns and when I say colder, I mean temps being 5 to 10 degrees BN (not "Arctic Air").

Btw: February looks the same, no big changes and I truly hope I am wrong.

Also, I haven't used my snowblower yet and here we are in January lol!

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

So far I have recorded .02” of new snow fall. At this time very light snow is falling with a temperature of 30.

You sure? That's like 1 flake if you even had the instrument. I measured 1.5" here making this the most wintry morning of this winter. Snow is not as dense as expected tho, and I see it has mostly melted on my always warm front walk. If we don't get that arctic blast, this one is headed for the "11-12" analog list.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Just went outside to check out the scenery and it I gotta tell ya, it feels great to at least have a winter scene w average temps, or even slightly above this time of the year. "Winter Wonderland" and I also have old snow from Fridays snow, so there is a snowcover going on in SEMI. I am just waiting for the "Big Dog" to come this season.

 

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

You sure? That's like 1 flake if you even had the instrument. I measured 1.5" here making this the most wintry morning of this winter. Snow is not as dense as expected tho, and I see it has mostly melted on my always warm front walk. If we don't get that arctic blast, this one is headed for the "11-12" analog list.

Whoops that is .2" put the . in the wrong spot. The overnight snow is now melted here as the temperature is is up to 36 here now. But it is true 2011/12 could be a good analog winter but even in that winter January had 27.0" of snow fall. 

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1 hour ago, centralweather44 said:

Have any of the others jumped back on board yet? NAM showing much of anything?

NAM and RGEM just coming into range, both have the stotm as does the new GFS. EURO was close may have it on 12z run.

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11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Drive to work (once you get just 8 miles west of here) was VERY picturesque where that heavy snow band came through last night. @whatitdo Did your end of town get in on that as well?

20210102_135551.thumb.jpg.0e736352d21aed689938291cc7d41edf.jpg

 

 

Some decent parking lot piles at work now after the last 2 waves..

20210102_140937.thumb.jpg.e2e3d432cc20eb91468fe8f7c06795a1.jpg

I got about a 2.5 inches total from new years day and system that rolled through last night. Pretty solid. I love the white wintry look on the trees!! Total for the season is about 7 inches or so. Main events was this one, the quick 2 incher on the night of the 29th, and the LES event on christmas eve/christmas which also brought around 2.5 inches. Small snows in the big scale of things but it doesn’t take much to make me happy. Still desire a big one or moderate one at the least! Hope we see it

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Arctic air that shows up on 12Z GFS- I'am not convinced. Euro Control had it first, now has lost it.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3 hours ago, whatitdo said:

I got about a 2.5 inches total from new years day and system that rolled through last night. Pretty solid. I love the white wintry look on the trees!! Total for the season is about 7 inches or so. Main events was this one, the quick 2 incher on the night of the 29th, and the LES event on christmas eve/christmas which also brought around 2.5 inches. Small snows in the big scale of things but it doesn’t take much to make me happy. Still desire a big one or moderate one at the least! Hope we see it

Nice!  Half of my 1.5" had already melted by 1:30 when I headed to work. Didn't even need to brush my car windows. Amazing pattern that delivered 40+ inches in New England while I struggle to cover grass blades.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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6 hours ago, Niko said:

Its pathetic. Hopefully and I mean "hopefully", by the 3rd week of January, some colder air returns and when I say colder, I mean temps being 5 to 10 degrees BN (not "Arctic Air").

Btw: February looks the same, no big changes and I truly hope I am wrong.

Also, I haven't used my snowblower yet and here we are in January lol!

I had my 7" total to date by November 15th the last 2 years.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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53 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I had my 7" total to date by November 15th the last 2 years.

Tbh, give me a blockbuster of a storm and I am a happy camper. Not looking for any intrusions of arctic air, just a big storm that really inundates Detroit and paralyzes travel. Ok, maybe 2 big storms......😐

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Per NOAA:

A relatively quiet stretch of weather sets up through the
end of the week. A high pressure sets up across the Great Lakes with
various waves passing through the broad troughing pattern which stay
mostly either to the north or south of the area. No sign of any
strong arctic air intrusions in the extended periods either. The
result will be at or slightly above seasonal normals in regards to
temperatures. Expecting highs mostly in the low/mid 30s and
overnight lows in the 20s.

UGH...How exciting is this for January.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Sunday, January 03, 2021 11:09:11 AM
Snow chances high in central Plains to interior Northeast from south-southwest

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Tyler Roys

Research that has taken place over the last six months discusses the pattern at and after a sudden stratospheric warming event. That research has found that typically the weather pattern during the event and after is some kind of Greenland blocking. The latest ECMWF Weeklies through the rest of the month highlight that the dominate weather pattern is going to be controlled by the Greenland blocking. This in turn will force an upper-level trough to set up across the Plains into the Southeast..590x424_01031602_screen-shot-2021-01-03-at-10.43.35-am.png590x420_01031603_screen-shot-2021-01-03-at-10.43.41-am.pngDuring this period, the cold shot associated with this event is likely to move across the northern Rockies, Plains into the Southeast. This also means that the storm track will largely remain across the southern Plains through off the East Coast via the mid-Atlantic leading to increase snow chances from storms from the central Plains into the interior Northeast.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The Euro 10-day is dreadful.  Even at day 10 there is no sign of anything interesting.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, Madtown said:

Looks like our side if the globe is warmish the other side frigid, no?

It's the result of a Siberian SSW event when you couple both the Strat warming along with the Troposphere.  First, you get the cold to brew up in Asia/Siberia/Europe and then you see it come on this side of the Globe.  The Arctic is coming on our side and its effects are usually felt 2-3 weeks later.  It's actually pretty fascinating that the models are indicating at this range that we begin to tap into the arctic air around the 15th(ish).  Once I saw the cold was delayed in late Dec, I jumped the gun to quick.  Coincidentally, the LRC suggests that one of this years coldest exhibits is supposed to cycle through at that time also.

I always enjoy seeing a weather event fall in line with a noteworthy calendar date.  None moreso, than this year's SSW which has taken place right as we were entering 2021.  On Jan 1st, the warming shot out of a cannon!  It really began a few days earlier but you get the idea.

 

pole10_nh.gif

 

pole30_nh.gif

 

 

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The 00z GFS again flashed the system during the 10th-12th period, but the GGEM/EURO are non-existent...took a gander at the 00z GEFS and there were a few members that are showing it as well.  There have been some boring stretches during this years LRC pattern but things will be getting exciting.

180

 

The models seem to be dialing in on a lighter snow event for parts of NE/ IA into maybe the KC/MO region for the mid-week system.

78

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Another EPIC, ALL-TIME week of winter weather ahead LOL! Who would have guessed that the one, cherry-picked model from 2 weeks ago would have been incorrect? And who would have guessed that the same wishcasters will be in this thread doing the same thing all week while they look out their window and see ABOVE AVERAGE temperatures and NO SNOW LOL!

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56 minutes ago, Bruce Stern said:

Another EPIC, ALL-TIME week of winter weather ahead LOL! Who would have guessed that the one, cherry-picked model from 2 weeks ago would have been incorrect? And who would have guessed that the same wishcasters will be in this thread doing the same thing all week while they look out their window and see ABOVE AVERAGE temperatures and NO SNOW LOL!

I can be cynical as well, but I do it in a lot less sarcastic way.  This accomplishes nothing.   This is a winter thread and people will search for any indication of "real" winter.  Yes it's always 2 weeks away, but it has to show up at some point.  

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This morning has a very wintry feel to it with a heavy overcast, sporadic flurries/light snow showers and a temp of 25F with calm winds.  I've received a little more than a dusting overnight adding yet another day this week where it is snowing.  This makes it 4 out of the last 5 days where some snow has fallen.

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The KC area had a nice winter storm on Friday, the 1st day of 2021. Started off as sleet/freezing rain and turned to snow a few hours later. I had 4.8 inches at my house(NE KC) and some of my staff did measure some spots just a little over 5" on their lots they service. (Less south of the Missouri River) Concrete snow, very heavy and sloppy. The streets got compacted by traffic and the city plows were too late. Side roads are still really bad with slush and ice. 

Even know we received a good storm, it is still a very warm pattern. Following the snow, we couldn't even drop into the teens for lows at night. That's easy to do when you have a good snow pack.

The mid week storm is still showing up for parts of the Plains, but, once again, a lot of warm air in place. Some models showing snow for KC Wednesday night. 

 

Hope some real winter shows up soon, but, for now, it was a beautiful weekend of snow cover and winter conditions. 

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Currently at 33F under cloudy skies. It will remain cloudy all week w colder temps by weeks end as that HP area slides closer to the GL's area w highs right around 30F and lows in the teens. A few flurries here and there, especially tomorrow as a weak trough approaches SEMI, but no biggie. A dusting the most. A few areas could receive 0.5." Next week features pretty much the same w cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and seasonable to slight above or below temps w on and off flurries. Some snowcover will remain otg throughout this dry stretch as readings remain chilly enough, so thank goodness for that.

Btw: Signs are pointing to a colder, stormier pattern from mid to especially late January. Lets see how that goes. Fingers crossed.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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27 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

The KC area had a nice winter storm on Friday, the 1st day of 2021. Started off as sleet/freezing rain and turned to snow a few hours later. I had 4.8 inches at my house(NE KC) and some of my staff did measure some spots just a little over 5" on their lots they service. (Less south of the Missouri River) Concrete snow, very heavy and sloppy. The streets got compacted by traffic and the city plows were too late. Side roads are still really bad with slush and ice. 

Even know we received a good storm, it is still a very warm pattern. Following the snow, we couldn't even drop into the teens for lows at night. That's easy to do when you have a good snow pack.

The mid week storm is still showing up for parts of the Plains, but, once again, a lot of warm air in place. Some models showing snow for KC Wednesday night. 

 

Hope some real winter shows up soon, but, for now, it was a beautiful weekend of snow cover and winter conditions. 

I think the CMC is on track with the mid week storm rolling through the MO. River Valley area.  Lets hope we are cold enough.

gem_asnow_ncus_16.png

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Detroit is running AN snowfall as of today, which clearly expresses that in January or February, you do not need arctic air to favor snowfalls, unless you want the powdery stuff. Even slightly above normal gives ya snow. Tbh, mixing issues could be in play though, depends on how much warming gets involved, but for the most part, snow favors. Case in point, yesterday's snowfall. Some parts in SEMI received near or over 4."

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Currently at 33F under cloudy skies. It will remain cloudy all week w colder temps by weeks end as that HP area slides closer to the GL's area w highs right around 30F and lows in the teens. A few flurries here and there, especially tomorrow as a weak trough approaches SEMI, but no biggie. A dusting the most. A few areas could receive 0.5." Next week features pretty much the same w cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and seasonable to slight above or below temps w on and off flurries. Some snowcover will remain otg throughout this dry stretch as readings remain chilly enough, so thank goodness for that.

Btw: Signs are pointing to a colder, stormier pattern from mid to especially late January. Lets see how that goes. Fingers crossed.

Yeah up until the 16th or so it’s looking reaaaaaallllyyyy boring here for January standards 😕

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Decided to look at Kuchera for NAM and you can subtract 1.5" from totals, but still wouldn't be bad. GFS is actually pretty wet, we'll see if the usual warm bias is in effect. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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Sitting in a bad spot here. There is a dry air curtain right over me for tomorrow night's clipper.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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55 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

Yeah up until the 16th or so it’s looking reaaaaaallllyyyy boring here for January standards 😕

For sure...in the meantime, I will start getting my snowblower ready, just in case Winter decides to visit. Great opportunity to change the oil and spark plug. Maybe give it a wash as well. Heck, I might even organize my garage a bit. Watch, when I get my snowblower ready and going, Winter will hit. 🙂

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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It was 34*F when I woke up this morning. The normal low is 1.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Didn't know where else to put this so I thought I would post my 2020 climate stats here. Data from my Ambient 2902a weather station in my backyard. Averages, etc using the Omaha Eppley airport which is about 7 miles from my house.

Coldest temp: -5.9 on 2/13

Hottest temp: 97.7 on 8/23

Total precip: 21.89"

Had 46 days above 90 degrees for the high temp this year and 4 days below zero for the low.

June avg high: 89.0  July avg high: 89.3  Aug avg high: 87.2

Driest August in over 100 years at the airport, 4th driest summer on record, and 7th warmest summer on record.

Had 4 severe tstorm watches, 1 tornado watch, 1 severe tstorm warning

For the year I ended up 1.5 degrees above the yearly average with 8 out of 12 months warmer than normal.

Average low was 1.4 degrees above normal and average high was 1.6 degrees above normal.

June was the warmest month at 5.7 degrees above normal and October as the coldest at 4.2 degrees below normal.

29.8" of snow this year. 17.7 from Jan-Apr and 12.1 from Oct-Dec.

Largest single day snowfall was 4/16 at 6". February only had .5" of snow.

Had 13 winter weather advisories and 2 winter storm warnings

 

 

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18 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

It was 34*F when I woke up this morning. The normal low is 1.

We need cold air. Like bad. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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37 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

It was 34*F when I woke up this morning. The normal low is 1.

Wut? Average low is 1F?🤣 Holy crap. That is impressive. You probably have colder averages than parts of Minnesota. I never knew your normal low is that frigid. Thanks for sharing that.👍

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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It's amazing how the long range just refuses to let any arctic air seep south.  Split flow is a killer in a winter like this.   I have 34 or higher forecasted the 8 out of 10 days.  That takes us to mid-January. Basically our coldest time of year.  Might be one of those 2 weeks of winter in late January/early February and boom Spring comes in  early March.    Minimal chances of snow.  Already 2 plus feet behind average.   Going to need a MAJOR pattern change to shake things up.   Not sure how that happens without a drastic change in the atmosphere.  

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15 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

It's amazing how the long range just refuses to let any arctic air seep south.  Split flow is a killer in a winter like this.   I have 34 or higher forecasted the 8 out of 10 days.  That takes us to mid-January. Basically our coldest time of year.  Might be one of those 2 weeks of winter in late January/early February and boom Spring comes in  early March.    Minimal chances of snow.  Already 2 plus feet behind average.   Going to need a MAJOR pattern change to shake things up.   Not sure how that happens without a drastic change in the atmosphere.  

Yep. Being in between a split flow totally sucks, especially when approaching the coldest time of Winter. Tbh, if it promises to give payback for a month, ( that is from mid January or later to mid February or later), then I'll accept it. Spring is more than welcome to arrive afterwards. Although, I do prefer Winter to hang on to at least mid March. Then, its all done afterwards.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Cavalier, ND has an average Jan low of -5. Baudette and International Falls, MN at -7. All of these are Canadian border counties. That's about as cold as it gets in the lower 48 outside of maybe remote communities in the rockies. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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I'm starting to see a better LES signal showing up on the ensembles at this range from the Thu-Sat period on the western shores of LM due to a persistent N/NE flow off the lake.  The placement of the HP is ideal for possible on/off lake effect snow showers.  The UK has been showing this for the last 3 runs.  For those up near MKE and down into NE IL, could be something to keep an eye on.  I'm not expecting a lot but it sure will add to the wintry feel.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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