Jump to content
The Weather Forums

January 2021 Observations and Discussion


Recommended Posts

Wow...928mb low forecasted to move into the Bering Sea 12/31...

Screenshot_2020-12-30 NWS OPC on Twitter.png

  • Like 5
  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 893
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Just started the change over here. Bitter sweet as we sit and wait to put our pup down. 

Let's keep the AGW and Political talk separate from this board as there are several members on here (including myself) that would rather discuss weather related business in here.  You can choose to co

A few daylight pics of the Twin peaks on the side of driveway. My "snowblower" son!!

Posted Images

@Tom & @OKwx2k4You guys got a better grip on these things than I do, but it seems this could shake things up a bit. The 06z GFS has it down to 924mb as it spins around, then weakens and gets absorbed in the flow to the east. Still very impressive.

Screenshot_2020-12-30 GFS Model - Tropical Tidbits.png

  • Like 5
  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

@Tom & @OKwx2k4You guys got a better grip on these things than I do, but it seems this could shake things up a bit. The 06z GFS has it down to 924mb as it spins around, then weakens and gets absorbed in the flow to the east. Still very impressive.

Screenshot_2020-12-30 GFS Model - Tropical Tidbits.png

Seems to me that would indicate a major storm in the plains around the 15th.  @Tom predicted a major storm in the plains around the 15th.

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

@Tom & @OKwx2k4You guys got a better grip on these things than I do, but it seems this could shake things up a bit. The 06z GFS has it down to 924mb as it spins around, then weakens and gets absorbed in the flow to the east. Still very impressive.

Screenshot_2020-12-30 GFS Model - Tropical Tidbits.png

I haven't posted regarding this storm yet that is on my calendar for Week 3 of this month.  I'll tell ya, by the time we do have this storm cycle around, there will be plenty of arctic air around to produce a potential powerhouse (17th-21st).

  • Like 3
  • Popcorn 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

@Tom & @OKwx2k4You guys got a better grip on these things than I do, but it seems this could shake things up a bit. The 06z GFS has it down to 924mb as it spins around, then weakens and gets absorbed in the flow to the east. Still very impressive.

Screenshot_2020-12-30 GFS Model - Tropical Tidbits.png

The BSR suggests this storm below to show up around the 13th-15th (ish)...

1.gif

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

@Tom & @OKwx2k4You guys got a better grip on these things than I do, but it seems this could shake things up a bit. The 06z GFS has it down to 924mb as it spins around, then weakens and gets absorbed in the flow to the east. Still very impressive.

Screenshot_2020-12-30 GFS Model - Tropical Tidbits.png

You nailed it. The modeling should actually start reflecting exactly what you have probably thought. You're going to see the reaction to that Bering Sea hurricane in the next 24-48 hours.

May see cold get held up on the western side of the Rockies with one or 2 waves, but after that, going to see the full show in the eastern 2/3 of the nation in a couple weeks.

In short, it's as awesome as you think it is, and stuff is about to get real fun.

Edit/add: I'd say we all agree. Was writing while you guys were. Buckle up, ladies and gentlemen. May make some history to erase the crap memory of 2020 with. :)

  • Like 2
  • Popcorn 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, clintbeed1993 said:

That's a nice rainstorm showing up 2nd week of January on the GFS 🙄

Lol holy hell... Thanks God GFS is a terrible model. Rain stretches up to Winnipeg.

  • Like 1
  • Rain 1
  • scream 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

NWS Hastings, which never really talks about anything farther than 7 days out, has now mentioned in the last two forecast discussions how the pattern gets very active by next weekend and beyond. I just found that odd for them. Just something to put out there for down the road. May not verify to anything. 

  • Like 2
  • Snow 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

As I have said numerous times, it might get stormy, but there is "NO ARCTIC AIR IN SIGHT." Tbh, I don't care about cold intrusions, as long as the storm track benefits my area. My average temps are now cold enough to support snow. Even slightly BN is even better (more powdery stuff). Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens is not considered brutal! I truly hope this changes and Arctic air does invade, don't get me wrong. I am just going w reality here and not wishful thinking. Also, I guess that is why I am successful. 😜

  • Like 1

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Niko said:

As I have said numerous times, it might get stormy, but there is "NO ARCTIC AIR IN SIGHT." Tbh, I don't care about cold intrusions, as long as the storm track benefits my area. My average temps are now cold enough to support snow. Even slightly BN is even better (more powdery stuff). Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens is not considered brutal! I truly hope this changes and Arctic air does invade, don't get me wrong. I am just going w reality here and not wishful thinking. Also, I guess that is why I am successful. 😜

That’s a fair point. Guess i should share ur optimism considering our average january temp is 30/15 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Tom said:

On the eve, of New Year's Eve, I'm noticing some rather fascinating developments in the data that suggest to me we are going to see some "bowling ball" systems as the models are beginning to digest the massive blocking pattern over the arctic regions.  I don't recall seeing maps like these in years where you have both an "off the charts" -AO/-NAO in tandem.  My goodness, but the models are actually trending stronger with the blocking as we head into the New Year, thus, it is now beginning to look like the storm track will be farther south instead of hard NW cutters.  I'm watching for the models to trend just enough colder in future runs that'll allow these systems to produce more SN instead of mix/RN scenarios across the central/eastern Sub during the 1st couple weeks of the month.

Gosh, where do I begin...there's just soo much going on in the atmosphere right now that in my opinion, it is gearing up for an interesting ride this month.  Let's start off in the all important piece to the puzzle, The Polar Vortex, and what is going to transpire over the next week or so.  I knew when flipping through the data this morning, I saw this similar SSW event before.  Yup, it is nearly identical to the one that transpired recently in Dec '18 which lead to the PV intrusion in late Jan '19 that ignited Snowmaggedon for those of you out in the Plains/Upper MW region.  Are we going to see a similar pattern but this time farther South???  Yes, I'm startled by the evidence and data that is suggesting what we have just witnessed is a taste of what is coming down the road.  

 

The data shows, when a Siberian SSW event starts off on the other side of the Pole and heads into the N.A side, it leads to severe winter 2-3 weeks later.  This means, that by the middle of this month, following the multiple systems I'm seeing between the 6th-15th, IMHO, the entire N.A. pattern will veer away from the stout +EPO leading us into seeing more arctic air to infiltrate the pattern.  The forthcoming pattern heading into the latter part of the 1st week of Jan, I think we will see nature lay down the foundation, or framework, where the Arctic Express will come down into the nation by the 15th or thereabouts.  Get ready to see some big flips in the LR data. I'm seriously becoming more convinced knowing how badly the models missed the blocking for December, they are absolutely missing the blocking into Jan.  More importantly, they are now latching onto the sustained cold that will come towards the end of Week 2.  

Let's order up some blocking....

2.png

3.png

 

Long Range GEFS...

4.png

 

 

That GEFS map on the bottom reminds me of the 2007-2008 winter back to back snowstorm track.

  • Like 3

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Niko said:

As I have said numerous times, it might get stormy, but there is "NO ARCTIC AIR IN SIGHT." Tbh, I don't care about cold intrusions, as long as the storm track benefits my area. My average temps are now cold enough to support snow. Even slightly BN is even better (more powdery stuff). Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens is not considered brutal! I truly hope this changes and Arctic air does invade, don't get me wrong. I am just going w reality here and not wishful thinking. Also, I guess that is why I am successful. 😜

I agree.

  • Like 2

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

Link to post
Share on other sites

Started this thread off with PP from Accu-WX. Only fair to keep sharing his thoughts. Some really good points in here and well worth a 5 minute read.

Wednesday, December 30, 2020 7:20:06 AM
Massive blocking, polar vortex displacement, but why not definite on extreme cold in North America
 
MASSIVE BLOCKING UPPER HIGH EASTERN CANADA FORCES SOUTHERN STORM TRACK: An extensive upper high pressure area over eastern Canada and southern Greenland will force a more southern storm track during this period. A winter storm may develop around Jan. 7 in the south-central Plains and central Mississippi Valley, causing disruptions to travel and business. Heavier rain and gusty thunderstorms are possible from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley as the storm cuts toward the Midwest and then weakens approaching the block. A second storm should develop around Jan. 9 in the South. This should gain plenty of additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as it eventually makes its way up the coast Jan. 10-11. It should be cold enough for snow in parts of the interior Northeast and even the mid-Atlantic, with heavier rain for the Southeast.
590x442_12300102_gefsupper9th.jpg

Take a look at the AO and NAO indices. They are heading strongly negative supporting this massive block through next week and perhaps into the following week as well. This should force the jet moving into the Northwest farther south entering the Plains and East, bringing big storms and good opportunities for snow and ice in the North. But what about the polar vortex and its contribution to the pattern? It will support and perhaps influence the stormy pattern through mid January. As far as extreme cold, that is yet to be determined. The South will fall below normal again later in the month.

Look, I am getting tired of reading that a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event is coming. It has already started, and we have been discussing this for weeks. The globe is going into extremes prior to the major event. Temperatures dropped to minus 71 F in Siberia on Dec. 28 (unofficial). Europe will turn much colder and stormier in the coming week. A massive upper high in eastern Canada will send temperatures above normal for most of the nation heading into next week.

 

The uncertainty is where can arctic cold spread mid- to late January as a result of this sudden stratospheric warming event. Some modeling is showing Europe, another model shows Asia. With this massive block occurring in eastern Canada and Greenland next one to two weeks, the Arctic cold should move across the United States and into the East. We are leaning toward a stormy pattern with some cold, but not too extreme through the 11- to 15-day period and 16- to 20-day period.

The polar vortex will weaken and the upper pattern will change globally in January and perhaps early February with very cold air escaping from the upper polar region heading for the mid-latitudes. The La Nina pattern, a strong westerly flow across the Northwest and northern Rockies, will continue to shut off frigid air through at least mid-January and may hold back impacts from the polar vortex displacement as well. Also, the MJO wave is located across the far western Pacific early January. The result will be a milder pattern for eastern half of North America. This may fight against any long, sustained cold from reaching the eastern U.S., perhaps the entire U.S. during January.

NCEP forecast of the MJO heading back into phase 3 and 4 week one and week two January590x590_12300126_ncepmjo.jpg590x434_12300127_phase.jpg

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Happy New Year's Eve!  As we wrap up what has been a year full of anomalous wx throughout our country, what do we have to look forward to this month??  Boy, I'll tell ya...there are a many great things on the horizon for winter wx enthusiasts.  The data keeps showing me what my gut has been saying all along that the models were getting it all wrong over the last few weeks for this month.  Why?  Well, there are many reasons as to why but I'll comment on a few of them that to me are the most important.

High Latitude Blocking...Check...

Major Mid-Winter Strat Warming...Check...

Active STJ...Check...

Cold Air...Check...while marginal during Week 1, it progressively gets colder heading into Week 2...

 

Following our New Year's system, we are going to enter a pattern that will feature several "Bowling Ball" systems.  You can send a special "Thank You" to mother nature for delivering an ideally placed SSW and monster Greenland Block.  I'm not expecting significant storms for the first couple systems that will track through the central Plains/MW region, but the later period (13th-15th) has my attn to become a large scale "Southern Stream Dream"...

The EPS/GEFS are starting to hone in on our next weaker system tracking due west/east across the central/eastern Sub during the 5th-7th period (my initial call was between the (6th-9th).  I am expecting the models to trend a bit cooler to allow for more snow production as they digest the blocking a bit better along with their tendency to be too warm in the medium range.  Following this system, there appears to be another sneaky one that could follow this storm right on its heels in Back-To-Back fashion on the 9th-11th period.  Then, the pattern turns ripe for arctic air to filter into the pattern and produce what could be the seasons first real monster storm of the season.  Last night's 00z Euro Control flashed what I had envisioned.  @OKwx2k4 this could be your storm...

 

 

1.png

2.png

 

In a nutshell, if your looking for an active pattern, look no farther...the northern tier folks may miss out on the bigger storm systems but should have opportunities, esp when the pattern turns more out of the NW or a stray clipper enters the pattern while rounding the base of an exiting trough (this is a feature of this year's LRC pattern that I've noticed since the autumn).  By the time we enter the middle part of the month, I firmly believe it's going to be a ridiculous ride for the remainder of January.  Saddle Up...Winter Is Coming Back...

 

I'll end this post by sharing the U.S. snow cover map...overall, a lot of us are finally sharing in the wealth...IMHO, this will pattern will continue in the weeks ahead...

nsm_depth_2020123005_National.jpg

 

My apologies, this will be my last comment on this post (it's taken my about 45 min to put this together)...what better way but to finish off this LR post with today's latest JMA weeklies run...all I gotta say, saddle up folks...this model is flashing a monster west-based Greenland Block along with a -AO (I knew it was missing the blocking but now catching onto it)...

6.png

 

Week 3-4...Temp/Precip...Wet/Active and COLD!!!  The arctic attack will be back during 2nd half of the month...I'm tickled with excitement my friends...

 

Y202012.D3012_gl0.png

 

Y202012.D3012_gl2.png

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

I have no questions the pattern will be active going into the first two weeks of JAN. The question (as has been all this late 2020) is where is the cold air? To make it snow for most reading this? I don't see it. Teleconnections now are ideal, but it's been borderline and continues to be for a solid snow event without much mixing. Even areas N of 45 have rain in some of the GFS,EURO operationals. No doubt a SSW is going on. But where will the Arctic air be dislodged too? I have 75%+ thought it will not initially be on this side of the globe, first Europe/Asia. Than- after modification - here come late Jan/early FEB. But- if the case- a strong NW flow with clippers reducing the current active period with a Gulf open for business. I just don't see a cold,snowy JAN for many reading and echo the thoughts of PP at Accu-WX. He's been pretty good over the years. Let's be honest with ourselves with those following this forum that many of the predictions of widespread cold and snow have been vastly replaced with warmth and an ocnl storm every 2-3 weeks. It takes more luck than any pattern to get a snow event in this current pattern. I've been lucky. But that luck is running thin. Just my .02.

  • Like 4
  • Popcorn 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites

As PP mentions above - the MJO may be containing the effects of the -AO / NAO.  I personally firmly believe it is. A Mexican system is not typical in such -AO / NAO, but perhaps TOO strong of -AO / -NAO.  but regardless the MJO is the bigger player (QB to say) on the field. And he's ALL-PRO it seems.

  • Popcorn 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

I have no questions the pattern will be active going into the first two weeks of JAN. The question (as has been all this late 2020) is where is the cold air? To make it snow for most reading this? I don't see it. Teleconnections now are ideal, but it's been borderline and continues to be for a solid snow event without much mixing. Even areas N of 45 have rain in some of the GFS,EURO operationals. No doubt a SSW is going on. But where will the Arctic air be dislodged too? I have 75%+ thought it will not initially be on this side of the globe, first Europe/Asia. Than- after modification - here come late Jan/early FEB. But- if the case- a strong NW flow with clippers reducing the current active period with a Gulf open for business. I just don't see a cold,snowy JAN for many reading and echo the thoughts of PP at Accu-WX. He's been pretty good over the years. Let's be honest with ourselves with those following this forum that many of the predictions of widespread cold and snow have been vastly replaced with warmth and an ocnl storm every 2-3 weeks. It takes more luck than any pattern to get a snow event in this current pattern. I've been lucky. But that luck is running thin. Just my .02.

It is rather interesting how much it can snow in warm patterns such as we are currently in right now.  The op runs IMO are running warm and have trended cooler as we near an event.  Yes, I have a bias towards snow/cold and have busted in years past in the timing of pattern flips but haven't been denied, just the timing has been off.  I'll eat crow if I'm wrong on these predictions.  This year, however, I'm fully convinced it is coming earlier in Jan than in recent years.  The Arctic will be coming back...to many positive variables are lining up and playing ball.  

  • Popcorn 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

As PP mentions above - the MJO may be containing the effects of the -AO / NAO.  I personally firmly believe it is. A Mexican system is not typical in such -AO / NAO, but perhaps TOO strong of -AO / -NAO.  but regardless the MJO is the bigger player (QB to say) on the field. And he's ALL-PRO it seems.

In recent years, remember those stout SER's??  Those years featured amplified MJO patterns...this year, not so much...case in point, the latest Euro's MJO forecast...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope your right Tom. I said the same thing about a month ago and my location has a solid snowpack now.  Luck. Many don't that should and cold air is seriously lacking. Again- hope your right about "earlier in Jan" as I personally don't see it , but that's what makes this forum fun. Good Luck on upcoming system!!

  • Like 3

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites

@Tom

Thanks for all the updates and the long, detailed posts. 

 

Here in KC, we will finish Dec. 5+ degrees above average with only .2 inches of snow. We did score a nice winter event Tuesday this week with huge moisture totals for winter. Like I said, we needed it here in KC. Now, we have a nice winter storm trucking our way for the 1st day of Jan. So, it appears we will start 2021 with a bang here in KC. (Looks like KC could go into the comma head of snow with this system) 

Its winter, enjoy!

A big Jan. potential with winter weather and I get to see if the Chiefs can run it back. We start another SB run here in a few weeks. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Amazing...921mb low, 95kt winds, one of the strongest storms ever in the north Pacific...

Screenshot_2020-12-31 NWS OPC on Twitter.png

  • Like 3
  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
Link to post
Share on other sites

All our pattern needs is cold. The activity is there. But will be hard to build up a deep snowpack in such a mild pattern.

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS says what extreme cold? If you go back and look at the posts in this thread and others, it is always a couple of weeks away... Lots of time for the models to change but they somehow keep end up being relatively correct.

If it's going to be busy storm wise, great! I'd rather have it be warmer and active too vs extreme cold and hope to catch a storm.

 

floop-gfs-2020123112.sfct_anom.conus.gif

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, hlcater said:

All our pattern needs is cold. The activity is there. But will be hard to build up a deep snowpack in such a mild pattern.

Yep, 6.5" in Lincoln is already hard to enough to get. It happens, but now even in the heart of winter it'll be mostly gone by early next week. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

Link to post
Share on other sites

The Euro Weeklies just came out and they pretty much mirror what the JMA weeklies showed earlier today.  Coast to coast storms throughout the month and then the 500mb pattern amps up suggesting arctic air becoming a player by the 15th(ish) and into Feb.  Massive west-based Greenland block throughout the run.  Incredible pattern that can produce quite a snowy regime.  I'm fired up!

The Week of the 10th...this is when the real party gets started...I'm looking for a couple Big hits (13th-15th) & (18th-21st)...this will  be loaded...

 

1.png

2.png

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I saw the mid week storm on the Euro next week that Tom posted above, could be our next one to track.  What else I noted, which has been shared by some is the extreme above normal temps throughout most of Canada.  I looked at the 10 day Euro and for most of Canada, but in particular the eastern half of Canada 850mb temps are 20-30 degrees above normal for almost the entire next 10 days.  Truly impressive.  I'm not well versed in this enough to say what it means, other than it should prevent storms from tracking straight into Canada.  There isn't any impressive cold in the lower 48, but from what I have seen, still cold enough for snow.  Quite possibly much like this last system, just cold enough for snow and followed up by normal to slightly above normal temps behind the system, instead of the typical cool shot we see after storms.  I actually prefer that because then we get some melting, especially on driveways and secondary roads.  So if the storm track is further south and temps are near normal (as forecast), I don't see any reason to believe that we can't get another storm or two over the next couple of weeks.  Models have hinted at some snow and we're seeing it on today's Euro as mentioned.  

  • Like 2

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Tom said:

The Euro Weeklies just came out and they pretty much mirror what the JMA weeklies showed earlier today.  Coast to coast storms throughout the month and then the 500mb pattern amps up suggesting arctic air becoming a player by the 15th(ish) and into Feb.  Massive west-based Greenland block throughout the run.  Incredible pattern that can produce quite a snowy regime.  I'm fired up!

The Week of the 10th...this is when the real party gets started...I'm looking for a couple Big hits (13th-15th) & (18th-21st)...this will  be loaded...

 

1.png

2.png

 

From Met "OHwx"

Quote

With an active sub-tropical jet and developing split flow over the western U.S., along with a persistent, west-based -NAO, this would begin increasing the risk for winter storms across the eastern and central U.S. around or just after January 10th. It would not immediately be a very cold pattern, but it could be a snowy one for some areas. 

The EPS continues to retrograde the trough into northeast Asia in the 10-15 day range while the Pacific jet continues pulling back. I'm not sure this lasts long, but could give a window for ridging into Alaska after mid-month. With a split flow over the western US and continued -NAO, a window of ridging over Alaska could both introduce colder air, but also lead to a quite active pattern for the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes into the Northeast beginning around or just after the middle of January. 

 

  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice and mild down here in eastern TN . A few showers moved through not long ago. Rain on the roof awoke me here at a neat cabin in the Smoky mountains. They say the Appalachian Trail is about a 2 hour hike from the beautiful park here. 

  • Like 5

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

From Met "OHwx"

 

Thanks for sharing this info which pretty much lines up to a "T" with what I have in mind.  We have many positive factors that are beginning to line up for our region to finally be placed in an ideal location to reap the rewards.  I think this system we are seeing on New Year's day is going to be a tell-tale sign where to expect the storm track to develop for the S Stream cutters that I'm anticipating over the next several weeks.  When this years LRC pattern began setting up in Oct/Nov, I knew we needed to have a -NAO to develop in order to be the benefactor.  That was my pre-season idea and one I saw early on whereby the climate models kept missing in their Long Lead forecasts.  It's now becoming evident all of the models didn't see the west-based -NAO, the key blocking pattern for the MW/GL's region.  This prevents hard cutters to track NW of us and a big reason why we kept being on the sidelines over the past several years....will our patience be rewarded???  Time will tell...but my gut says we look pretty darn good ATM.

 

Speaking of which, if it wasn't for the west-based -NAO, the next system on the calendar is looking likely to track/pivot right over the MW/GL's region mid next week.  Check out the latest GEFS trends for this system and a BIG reason why I commented the other day to watch for the models in the extended period to trend colder/snowier because I've seen this script play out before.  The EPS has also trended better for a lot of us around these parts for this storm.  This will in all likelihood be our next system to track that has a "hybrid clipper" type look that will plug into GOM moisture.  I love tracking these slow moving/pivoting systems.

 

1.gif

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, I got a new job that requires a ton of driving. So now that I don't want a ton of snow on the roads, we'll get a ton of snow lol.

  • Like 2
  • lol 2

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Happy New Year!  Good riddance to 2020 a year that everyone will remember but would rather forget. Now here is some information on the past month and year at Grand Rapids Michigan.  For December the mean at Grand Rapids was 32.4 that is a departure of +3.2° The high for the month was 53 on the 10th and the low was 18 on the 15,25 and 31st  That low of 18 is the 2nd warmest low for any December in recorded history at Grand Rapids with the warmest being 21 in 2015. For the year the mean was 50.1° and that makes 2020 the 12th warmest of record at Grand Rapids. There have been 6 of the top 12 in the last 20 years. There was 37.44” of rain and melted snow in 2020. The high for the year was 94 on July 3rd and 7th the low for the year was a mild +4 on February 14 and 15th That is the 5 warmest low for any year at Grand Rapids. And it was just the 13th year that Grand Rapids did not get to zero or below. All in all a rather mild year.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, FAR_Weather said:

Well, I got a new job that requires a ton of driving. So now that I don't want a ton of snow on the roads, we'll get a ton of snow lol.

That's the way it always goes. How do you like Fargo? Better than Toledo?

Link to post
Share on other sites

The latest CanSIPS seasonal came out today and wouldn't ya know it...this run shows the massive -NAO blocking pattern all across eastern Canada.  Prob the biggest miss I've seen and no model saw it coming.  I'll be honest, heading into the winter season, when I saw the Super ensemble (Euro/Ukmet) showing absolutely ZERO high lat blocking, I was getting worried.  Once I saw the Strat warming in the longer range models in late Nov/early Dec, my worries began to subside.  Now, here we are, a nowcast moment, we see the grace of Ol' Man Winter returning.

 

1.gif

  • Like 2
  • Snow 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/31/2020 at 5:27 AM, Tom said:

Happy New Year's Eve!  As we wrap up what has been a year full of anomalous wx throughout our country, what do we have to look forward to this month??  Boy, I'll tell ya...there are a many great things on the horizon for winter wx enthusiasts.  The data keeps showing me what my gut has been saying all along that the models were getting it all wrong over the last few weeks for this month.  Why?  Well, there are many reasons as to why but I'll comment on a few of them that to me are the most important.

High Latitude Blocking...Check...

Major Mid-Winter Strat Warming...Check...

Active STJ...Check...

Cold Air...Check...while marginal during Week 1, it progressively gets colder heading into Week 2...

 

Following our New Year's system, we are going to enter a pattern that will feature several "Bowling Ball" systems.  You can send a special "Thank You" to mother nature for delivering an ideally placed SSW and monster Greenland Block.  I'm not expecting significant storms for the first couple systems that will track through the central Plains/MW region, but the later period (13th-15th) has my attn to become a large scale "Southern Stream Dream"...

The EPS/GEFS are starting to hone in on our next weaker system tracking due west/east across the central/eastern Sub during the 5th-7th period (my initial call was between the (6th-9th).  I am expecting the models to trend a bit cooler to allow for more snow production as they digest the blocking a bit better along with their tendency to be too warm in the medium range.  Following this system, there appears to be another sneaky one that could follow this storm right on its heels in Back-To-Back fashion on the 9th-11th period.  Then, the pattern turns ripe for arctic air to filter into the pattern and produce what could be the seasons first real monster storm of the season.  Last night's 00z Euro Control flashed what I had envisioned.  @OKwx2k4 this could be your storm...

 

 

1.png

2.png

 

In a nutshell, if your looking for an active pattern, look no farther...the northern tier folks may miss out on the bigger storm systems but should have opportunities, esp when the pattern turns more out of the NW or a stray clipper enters the pattern while rounding the base of an exiting trough (this is a feature of this year's LRC pattern that I've noticed since the autumn).  By the time we enter the middle part of the month, I firmly believe it's going to be a ridiculous ride for the remainder of January.  Saddle Up...Winter Is Coming Back...

 

I'll end this post by sharing the U.S. snow cover map...overall, a lot of us are finally sharing in the wealth...IMHO, this will pattern will continue in the weeks ahead...

nsm_depth_2020123005_National.jpg

 

My apologies, this will be my last comment on this post (it's taken my about 45 min to put this together)...what better way but to finish off this LR post with today's latest JMA weeklies run...all I gotta say, saddle up folks...this model is flashing a monster west-based Greenland Block along with a -AO (I knew it was missing the blocking but now catching onto it)...

6.png

 

Week 3-4...Temp/Precip...Wet/Active and COLD!!!  The arctic attack will be back during 2nd half of the month...I'm tickled with excitement my friends...

 

Y202012.D3012_gl0.png

 

Y202012.D3012_gl2.png

That was a GREAT write up. I'm pretty sure you covered everything very very well.

It's looking like what I'd call a "blitz" of storms. Going to be crazy, hard to keep up with and mostly a lot of fun. :)

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tom said:

The latest CanSIPS seasonal came out today and wouldn't ya know it...this run shows the massive -NAO blocking pattern all across eastern Canada.  Prob the biggest miss I've seen and no model saw it coming.  I'll be honest, heading into the winter season, when I saw the Super ensemble (Euro/Ukmet) showing absolutely ZERO high lat blocking, I was getting worried.  Once I saw the Strat warming in the longer range models in late Nov/early Dec, my worries began to subside.  Now, here we are, a nowcast moment, we see the grace of Ol' Man Winter returning.

 

1.gif

It took a lot for you and I to make the calls we did through all that. Glad we didn't let 90+ percent of modeling throw us off what we knew. Remained both objective and correct. Takes courage and hard work to do that, buddy. Well done, sir.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Also, if you are looking for where the cold is, check Siberia.  Temps held in the -30s to -40s+ below for huge chunks throughout the next 10 days on the 00z GFS I looked at last night.  

When that gets pushed off over the top, going to give 2011 a run at cold.

#1978-79

#2000-01

#2010-11

I think that was as good of an analog set as any. Still holding.

I won't post 4 times in a row again. I'm so sorry.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

December's snow fall extremes here in the recent years is a ridiculous example of an atmosphere that swings like an old clock pendulum. But the undeniable trend has been warm and "snow-less". 

My Dec average = 13"

2020 = 3.6"

2019 = 7.1"

2018 = 2.0"

2017 = 24.2"

2016 = 27.6"

2015 = 5.3"

2014 = 1.2"

2013 = 17.2"

 

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...