Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, Hawkeye said: The west shift needs to stop. No doubt, Need that HP in the Atlantic to back off a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, Clinton said: 6z Euro Control dropping a lot of ice and snow. Has a significant west shift. What the heck? That really goes west. I’m more confused about this storm than any I’ve tracked. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Me too, if the west shift doesn't stop you'll get this part also lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, Clinton said: No doubt, Need that HP in the Atlantic to back off a bit. So if I’m understanding this, the HP won’t really effect the initial part of the storm? When does it become more apparent? This is fascinating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: So if I’m understanding this, the HP won’t really effect the initial part of the storm? When does it become more apparent? This is fascinating. It's there for the first storm but that energy isn't cut off from the Jet stream. The second low is cut off, so it will move around the ridge much like a hurricane would. Thats what I think there are some smarter people than me on here that may explain better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, Clinton said: It's there for the first storm but that energy isn't cut off from the Jet stream. The second low is cut off, so it will move around the ridge much like a hurricane would. Thats what I think there are some smarter people than me on here that may explain better. Thanks, that makes sense. I was wondering why there was such a spread. Cut off lows have a mind of their own. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Big shift west on the 6z Euro Mean for second storm. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 So OAX is not really agreeing with CMC or Euro. More the NAM and GFS. They are staying north with this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 WPC is also going north with this now. And their maps are a blend of all the models. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Yeah definitely going NAM and GFS, favoring winter mix all afternoon and night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, Stormhunter87 said: Yeah definitely going NAM and GFS, favoring winter mix all afternoon and night. I wouldn’t be shocked with this outcome. Seems like this has become the norm for us in southeast Nebraska. The larger storms always seem to be a bit to warm. Good thing is we are getting moisture at least. Being 8+ inches down on the year I’ll take whatever we can get 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 NAM still way northwest. Doesn’t even barely snow in northeast Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Canadian RDPS continues to be further south and colder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 RDPS with 10” for Iowa city. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 12z RDPS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Well the Canadian models have been consistent. I hope it’s on to something with the depth and extent of the cold air. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 GFs with a big shift south. Brings heavy snow all the way to I80 in Iowa. Looks more like the Canadian. It does change over to freezing rain though whereas the Canadian keeps it snow or sleet. Big improvement though. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Considering the thermal issues the GFS has, this is very encouraging. It’s possible it’s still overdoing the warm air. ARX mentioned in their AFD with the more progressive nature of the system, the warm air draw is less of a concern. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Let’s see what wave 2 does Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Was just going to say the same thing on thermals. Good sign. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 2nd wave is really getting its act together by hour 105. Looks like it’s poised to be further west this run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Yup. Definitely going to be further NW than 6z we’ll see if it runs into a wall like previous runs showed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 At hour 126, Low is near St Louis. NE MO and SE IA look to get hit hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 The 850 line briefly gets as far NW as Waterloo where surface temps are in the teens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Looks great for areas east of KC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 This may be the first time a winter storm has aproached mby from the SE. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Weakens quickly when it gets further north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 How often do you see a storm move N-NNW out of the gulf? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 parallel GFS also a bit south with wave #1 4 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Glad we saw a nudge south there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Parallel GFS for the second wave. This system is coming out of the deep south and really pulls in the warm air aloft. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Parallel GFS again. When it reaches Iowa there is a bunch of mixed crap. As it leaves it's occluding and all heavy snow. It'd be a gut punch to get mix from this. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 12z GFS 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Someone is gonna get a lot of ice from this especially if there’s snow cover in Iowa/Illinois from the first wave 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 12z GFS parallel 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Hard to put much stock in wave 2 at this point. So much will depend on how wave 1 ends up. I’m glad there’s more to track though. It would be rare in these parts to get two major storms two days apart. I can’t think of the last time that happened. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 GDPS looks like it continues to focus on southern Iowa with heavy snow. It’s been that way for several runs in a row. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 FYI gem is way southeast with wave 2 and doesn’t get any precip into Iowa or Wisconsin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 I’ve been trying to lightly follow this system, and I am so confused looking at some of these maps 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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